Some data/info from Israel:
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I could be missing something (and maybe it’s less of a deal in israel… well, we know it’s less of a deal, but anyways), but it seems not valid to conclude 50% efficacy based on that if no control group, because of selection bias. Can’t the people vaccinated exhibit different behaviors and/or be in different demographic (age, etc) groups than the rest of the general population?
The relative drop off over time (just within the vaccination group) based on time since the vaccination seems more useful, though.
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Again, replying here rather than politics,
When I read this, I assumed you were right and Trump’s claims were just his typical, optimistic exaggeration (or lies, if you prefer) on the virus / vaccine rollout. But actually, that was what PFE was saying in October before the election… delays. Here’s their CEO promising just that
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/moving_at_the_speed_of_science
in March, I declared a bold ambition: that Pfizer would create a vaccine, and we would devote any and all resources necessary to be successful. I further announced, after consulting with our scientists, that we could have vaccine data ready to submit to the FDA by end of the third quarter, in October, and hopefully a hundred million doses delivered by the end of the year. I knew our goal was ambitious, but it would also be critical to protect against the second wave of cases that could accompany the return of colder weather in the Fall.
So I’m sure Trump just heard these optimistic estimates from the vaccine companies and repeated them.
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I wish they would have said something about the timing of those serious cases of covid in people who’d gotten a shot. If it’s your first shot, you wouldn’t expect any immunity for 1.5-2 weeks so with infection rates running high, there could be a good chunk of those situations.
Still, it’s interesting that the PFE one is only giving about 50% protection (although I hear the MRNA one is better on that regard, 75%ish or so) after the first shot. I would have guessed higher from the low incidence rates in those trials during in the intervening month between shots. I guess they may well have been right to design their trials with two shots rather than one, even as some of the other trials used a single shot and seem to be getting 70-80% ballpark numbers.
Any poster to this thread, heck any Fragiledeal participant darn near, would likely be aware of the delay before their vaccination starts to “kick in” and offer them some protection. And any medical pro would know this as well.
But I’m less certain every “average Joe” in the general public would realize COVID-19 vulnerability remains for a while even after you get your shot(s).
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Looks like the art of the deal is paying off. Production delays/issues with the PFE vaccine will impact EU/Canada deliveries fairly significantly for the next month or so, not US.
NIPH said the temporary reduction in deliveries was “in connection with an upgrade of production capacity.” “The temporary reduction will affect all European countries,” it added.
I can confirm the Canadian natives are restless where immunizations are concerned. It’s not a pretty picture there. Course, with Trudeau in charge, what else would you expect!! 
Get woke–get Covid. Notice that the idiot Ghaly is including other Democrat run states in his CYA statement:
Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s health and human services secretary, said at a Tuesday press conference that the state’s slower rollout might just be a byproduct of meticulous planning.
I don’t want to speak for South Dakota, North Dakota or West Virginia,” he said. “But I will say that certain states that have put a great deal of effort into coming up with their priority groups, watching how we keep a keen eye on equity, have been in the same place where California is.”
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gee, maybe they should have spent less time arguing about who’s a bigger victim and just giving out shots? Nah, that’s crazy talk - this is CA we’re talking about. If it didn’t involve pandering to a victim class voter or personal enrichment, they wouldn’t be doing it.
Speaking of less important priorities, one of the Biden admin’s new priorities for dealing with the virus will be… renaming the virus task force?
Operation Logistical SNAFU wasn’t taken, but they haven’t earned it, yet. I’m sure they’ll try to help, but more federal government “coordination” doesn’t sound like it’s going to do much besides sounding like they’re doing something. We shall see.
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xerty you crack me up!
And of course he is retiring the “Warp Speed” appellation. This as part of an effort to “disappear” all Trump administration successes.
It’s a very long list. Gonna take lots of effort.
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Does succession count as a success?
Trump has accomplished several US President historical firsts. First to lose the popular vote and warrant an impeachment. First to lose the popular vote twice, be impeached twice, and flip control of both the House and Senate to the other party. Biggest loser?
First president to collude with foreign adversaries and attempt to subvert our elections. (Not the first to try to subvert the elections, but first to collude with foreign adversaries to do so).
First to cause hundreds of thousands of additional unnecessary deaths of US citizens.
First to bilk the taxpayer for over 300 separate golfing trips.
First to mobilize extremists in a seditious conspiracy to violently attack Congress and his own VP.
So successful! So many “firsts”!
Yes, this fits more in the other thread but you two were explicitly politicizing covid19 in the comments I’m replying to.
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I take your point.
As OP on both threads I have wrestled with this problem but been unable to come up with an answer or remedy. I have criticized nobody and am not doing so now.
All I can ask, as OP, is for everyone myself included to do their best to keep the topics separate. I believe posters are already doing this and I appreciate everyone’s effort. It’s not easy to accomplish.
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Same situation in Oregon, where 200,000 doses are somewhere… but the governor is crying foul because the feds won’t be delivering all the promised doses by the end of the month.
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The announcement a few days ago was apparently imaginary.
" But as officials soon learned, the federal government had stopped stockpiling second dose vaccines weeks ago, they tell the Post . Both first and second doses were instead taken right off the manufacturing line. That meant Azar’s announcement reportedly released a stockpile that didn’t exist. The U.S. had already reached its maximum distribution capacity, and new doses distributors were expecting next week weren’t coming, the Post reports."
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The change is due to Pfizer ramping up to ship many times more doses than previously planned
Pfizer Inc. vowed Friday to boost the manufacturing pace of its newly-approved coronavirus vaccine with the aim of delivering 2 billion doses by the end of the year.
Pfizer said it will will boost its goal by 700 million doses as it makes changes to both its facilities and processes that will temporarily impact shipments to several non-U.S. countries in January and February from its factory in Puurs, Belgium. But the drugmaker, which manufactures the vaccine with its German partner, BioNTech ( BNTX ) - Get Report, said the delays will be offset by what it says will be “significant” increases in available doses in March and beyond.
“As part of the normal productivity improvements to increase capacity, we must make modifications to the process and facility that will require additional regulatory approvals,” Pfizer said in a statement shared with various media organizations. “Although this will temporarily impact shipments in late January to early February, it will provide a significant increase in doses available for patients in late February and March.”
So… States debating over using all the distributed doses for first injections is moot, because the followup dose is already queued up to be received?
Or, is that “on hand” the stockpile the HHS guy said would be released?
You have to ask HHS spokesperson Michael Pratt and Azar.