How real is the reported labor shortage?

It’s for farms who hire less than 7 workers in a quarter. They can pay less than minimum wage.

Why would anyone use H-2A and have to pay the grossly exaggerated prevailing wage when you can hire someone illegally?

As noted above the illegals actually get well above minimum wage for migrant farm labor in reality.

Also I like to think that most businesses actually do prefer to obey the law.

The client’s operation is WAY larger than that.

wow, you are obviously not paying enough if you have that many people leaving

Old thread but we have a 50% attrition rate. Some quit, some get fired. Most who quit don’t do it at lunch - that was just one example (writing on a phone makes for errors).

My point was a few years ago people were fighting for these jobs and no one Quit, the economy is better and I think there is a labor shortage.

Or today’s unskilled labor force is much lazier. Take your pick. And to correct myself there is some skill involved but no prior experience necessary.

I’m with sia, you’re leaving off the rest of the sentence: at that wage.

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They pay $17 /hr starting for unskilled labor.
Thats far above minimum and qualifies as a “living wage” most places.
And if the people stay on the job they can make up 100k /yr with overtime.

The pay rate is not a problem.

Its probably just a bit too physically demanding for many people though.

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TARIFFS BACKLASH:

~ Soybean prices are down 15% since China announced counter-tariffs. The Des Moines Register reported that this will already cost just Iowa soybean farmers $624 million.

~ Because of the counter-tariffs imposed against U.S. cheeses, an owner of a company that utilizes milk from more than 100 dairy farms across Wisconsin for cheese production has stated, “I could see us getting to the point where we’re dumping our milk in the fields.

~ Because of the counter-tariffs imposed, the largest nail manufacturer in the country, ‘Mid Continent Nail Corporation’, has already laid-off 60 of its 500 employees and if the tariffs remain, the owner has stated that by Labor Day, all 500 employees will be laid-off and he will shutter his business.

~ The owner of the Dayton, Ohio JBK Manufacturing, has stated they have already lost $700K in profits as a result of the 25% tariff on imported steel and 10% tariff on imported aluminum, which they utilize to manufacture jet engine parts for aircraft.

~ Harley Davidson reported it will eat the $100 million (!) loss resulting from the counter–tariffs until the end of the year, then they will be forced to move some of their production overseas, with the accompanying loss of American jobs. About 20% of HD’s sales are in the EU.

Ah yes, “Making America Great Again”.

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According to the Columbus Dispatch, because of counter-tariffs, Ohio soybean farmers will LOSE SIXTY PERCENT OF THEIR 2018 INCOME, and a number of them will lose their farms.

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Private payrolls only grew by 177,000 in June. It was the fourth month in a row that the ADP/Moody’s count fell short of 200,000.

Rs will likely push through a farm relief bill if there’s a lot of pain.

Employment trends

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Not really sure how useful that data is. The government has changed how they count unemployment over the years to artificially improve the numbers. If you don’t count everyone you can make the numbers look good.

As an example, a discouraged worker is no longer counted as unemployed after a year.

Here’s an article that talks about it.

The article linked from Pew says:

“Since 1994, no major changes have been made in how unemployment is measured, though there have been some modest updates to the CPS over time. For example, a 2010 change raised the upper limit on reporting how long someone has been jobless from “99 weeks and over” to “260 weeks and over” in order to better track long-term unemployment.”

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That data set goes back to 1975.

Yeah. OK so what did they change between 1975 and today exactly?

In 1994, the BLS changed the way in which it counts “discouraged” workers for the U-3 index. If one is unemployed for more than 52 weeks, even if one continues to look for employment, one is dropped from the labor force. A smaller denominator with the same number employed leads to a higher employment rate and a lower unemployment rate.

“Farm relief” isn’t a lot of help if you’ve already lost your farm.

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Mexico imposed a 25% counter-tariff on U.S. dairy products in retaliation for the V.S.G.'s aluminum and steel tariffs.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce senior vice president labeled the V.S.G.'s tariffs a “DAIRY DISASTER”. “Mexico is the top export market for US dairy products,” John G. Murphy wrote. “The US is the largest dairy supplier to Mexico, and Mexico accounts for about one-quarter of US dairy exports.”

July milk futures have dropped 12% since Mexico announced May 31 that it would strike back with tariffs. The price for a barrel, or 500 pounds, of white cheddar last week hit its lowest level since 2009. More cheese is in cold storage in the U.S. than any time since the U.S. Department of Agriculture began keeping track in 1917.

@JGodiasMurphy

Meanwhile, Mexico has signed a trade deal with the EU for their dairy products. European dairy trade with Mexico will now be duty-free.

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