“Dry questions. We’re going to YouTube!”
Did China’s consumption of soybeans drop by 50% too? Did the world supply magically spike to fulfill China’s non-US soybean demand? The math says whoever was buying the non-US soybeans that China is now buying, is now buying the US soybeans that China used to buy.
5 Likes
You don’t seem to be grasping it.
China currently purchases three–fourths of total worldwide soybean production. Let’s say, hypothetically, that aliens transported the entire country of China off our planet and took it to theirs. Who else would purchase that three–fourths of total worldwide soybean production ? Nobody.
The U.S. is the largest producer of soybeans, and is the largest exporter of soybeans on the planet.
China WAS buying half of U.S. production, but have ceased. Argentina is buying some because of their drought, but that’s a minor percentage of the one-fourth of worldwide production.
That still leaves a very sizable hole of buyers of U.S. soybeans, which is why you see soybean farmers on the news, the financial news, and the farm/Ag news, freakin’ out.
Sure, if Aliens took China off to their own planet, worldwide consumption of soybeans would fall off a cliff. But last I checked (and I assume it’d be a pretty prominent news story), China is still here eating soybeans.
So did worldwide production of soybeans spiked 25% overnight? Or did the Chinese suddenly start eating 33% less soybeans? Because those would be what causes worldwide supply/demand to fall out of wack. And since you chose to go with the aliens-kidnapping-all-the-Chinese example instead of either one of those practical realities, it leads me to believe neither has happened.
While buyer/seller pairs may reshuffle, the same volume of soybeans continues to pass from producers to consumers.
1 Like
quit feeding the troll
3 Likes
Should we start investing in spacesuit companies? 1.4Bn people in outer space will create quite a demand, no?
So give us more details about your short position. Let’s see if you are right or not.
Warren Buffett wants to invest in AMZN and GOOGL. Probably waiting for another correction before he buys $billions.
My average price is about $290, which is up a little or down a little depending on the day of the week.
Are you shorting TSLA by buying put options? If so, when does it expire?
Just short the stock, not options. I make $1 or lose $1 for each $1 move in the stock price. Timing is too hard on a situation like this for me to use options. When will the market have a crisis of confidence in the stock or the CEO have a nervous breakdown - who knows? His buying more stock on margin might help the optics like he did today, but if the stock starts falling in a meaningful way, the house of cards could come down quickly, both for him personally and the company’s prospects. I think the downside is potentially a lot bigger than the upside or I wouldn’t be involved at all, and this is under a 1% position for me.
Don’t get me wrong - I like the cars and I like how they really drove mass adoption of EVs into the public eye, but the current state of their finances isn’t great. You can’t lose $30k/car and try to make up for it in volume.
Also, there’s some more fundamental discussion of the company, the cars vs the competitors, etc, over here:
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/tsla-tesla-motors/1700/ (link to the end of the long thread)
The only thing that makes TESLA interesting is their home stuff. With CA requiring solar on new builds Tesla’s solar shingles and house battery can be a huge hit.
1 Like
Oil is expect to pop if the clown pulls out the Iran deal which would be good for my pocket book.
Saw your post and confirmed it on Google. Wow! No wonder TSLA went up today.
What oil stocks do you have in your portfolio?
If you wanted to bet on that solar bill, RGSE was up 30-50%. Don’t hold it too long though.
2 Likes
It would have been nice if you made RGSE suggestion yesterday 
3 Likes
I’m not seeing any correlation within your vague math.
It actually declined in response, perhaps because the Saudis SAID, repeat CLAIMED, they will make up any difference for any actual drop in Iranian sales of oil.
What is everyone loading up on? market just keeps going up & up