Las Vegas shooting - Oct 1 2017

Las Vegas shooting - Oct 1 2017
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#1

Pretty intense stuff. Curious, can we post links to social media photos/videos on this subject? I’ve seen a few, admittedly very chilling, but nothing graphic.

If this is too “off topic” then please lock. Not trying to drum up political agenda discussions, or conspiracy theory stuff. Just wanted a place to chat about the recent shooting in Vegas, which is supposedly the largest (quantity dead) US shooting in history.

ETA: if anyone here has family or friends that were involved, I hope they’re alright.


#2

No explicit position on this. I’m willing to let it play out for a bit and moderate if I feel the need.

It’s all raw and fresh, and I want to be respectful of that, while allowing folks to talk, while also remembering that we’re a finance forum that might not be the optimal place for an in depth discussion.

In short, go for it, and I hope no one will think me heavy handed if I think closing the topic appropriate.

To kick things off, nothing really to say except for the fact that it’s horrific. Really messed up stuff.

On the financial side of things, Vegas-related stocks seem down somewhere around 5% in pre-market.


#3

But gun stocks are up 2-5% premarket…

So apparently the guy is Stephen Paddock, aged 64, and is a “local resident” and the cops aren’t saying it’s terrorism yet (so what is terrorism, if this isn’t it? Or is it because the guy’s white and not Arab that they are somehow differentiating terrorism and something else??). Here’s a quote, which is pretty chilling and shows the level of detail this guy went to:

Lombardo said multiple firearms were found inside the hotel room. He said the room is still being processed and further details weren’t immediately available. KTNV, citing police sources, reports that Paddock had at least eight guns inside the hotel room, along with two platforms set up to shoot from. He also had cameras to see police arriving, the news station reports. He is believed to have used long range rifles, News 8 Now reports.
Source: http://heavy.com/news/2017/10/stephen-paddock-las-vegas-route-91-mandalay-bay-shooting-shooter-gunman-suspect-photos-motive/


#4

Yeah. This is the standard trend when these acts of violence (terrorism) happen. Investors presume tightening firearm regulations, which will lead to increased short-term sales.


#5

This is definitely terrorism. Calculated terrorism, at that. He knew that he would not get into the event itself… Or any other densely populated place like a club without going through TSA-like security. Seriously, Vegas bouncers are no joke.

He clearly knew what he was doing by shooting out of an areal position and was intent on inflicting maximum damage.


#6

Short term sales? Or speculation that people will go buy guns to protect themselves?

Selloffs typically mean prices decline. Or am I missing a deeper point?


#7

My understanding is that investors are thinking:

  1. Act of violence/Terrorism
  2. In response to 1, gov’ts will impose limitations on the ability to own firearms.
  3. Population, fearing these limitations will rush out to buy guns before they can’t (to protect themselves).
  4. Gun manufacturers will have a good quarter.

So self defense is a component.


#8

Ok so “short term sales” meant gun sales, not stock sales? Sorry, I was in stock-mode.


#9

Past firearms exec here. A shooting these days leads to immediate (same day) rise in gun sales, since people tend to have a fear that either 1) regulation will be reintroduced, 2) other people will react irrationally, so they better get there first to get the gun they wanted or 3) both.

Since this shooting happened after hours, you’ll see the results in sales starting today. Gun sales have been sluggish of late, so inventories are probably fairly decent. As such, I’m not sure how much the gun manufacturers will see a click up - it may be limited to retailers.

If calls for serious gun control result, then the uptick will have greater staying power and gun manufacturers will start to benefit.

This is why some gun suppliers/retailers called Obama “Salesman of the Year” after Sandy Hook. I’ve never seen comp sales numbers like that before, and may not see them again.


#10

Terrorism doesn’t just mean “something bad happened!”. It’s only terrorism if the goal was to influence public (or private, but not in this case as it was a large event) opinion/action.

Someone going crazy and deciding to kill a few people can also just be “a bad thing that happened”. Bad things happen everyday, it’s a fact of life. Thankfully mass shootings are, and through recent history have always been, very rare. (Less rare than terrorism in our modern society… But still pretty rare.) Most just off themselves rather than try to take a lot of strangers with them.


#11

ter·ror·ism
ˈterəˌrizəm/Submit
noun
the unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.

I guess @Bend3r isn’t wrong. I think these days, I associate this kind of thing with the word “terrorism” in a probably not so accurate way. Then again, there is much to be uncovered I think. We will see as details and the investigation develops.


#12

remember he was a fellon unlawfull to own guns.
its sick but lets not blame the shooter lets blame the NRA as pelosi allready has


#13

Or let’s keep the political banter out of this thread? Who said anything about blaming anyone? The point was just to discuss the event, and the facts related to it.

Where did you see he was a convicted felon? I didn’t see that anywhere. Granted, I have been busy for the last couple hours so perhaps it’s a new piece of information.


#14

Articles I’ve seen say he did not have a record. Do you have a source?


#15

Careful, lest you start a conspiracy theory.


#16

No conspiracy. Gun sales plummeted after Trump’s election. It’s a well-known pattern.


#17

This is true. I lost some money on some stocks. I think S&W’s parent company stock is down almost 50% after the election.


#18

It is interesting to see the bump in gun stocks. With a republican president and congress it’s difficult to imagine gun control legislation coming out of this so I was scratching my head a little. Then I read what orthros had to say and that made a little more sense.

This isn’t a calculated response to a serious concern of legislation passing, it’s simple marketing. If you were thinking about buying a gun in the last year, but didn’t pull the trigger (bad pun, I know) on your purchase then seeing guns in the news for the next week or so will remind you of that. Kind of like how you’re checking out that new electronic gizmo online and a week later Google is targeting you with ads for it hoping you might be ready to buy it now. Also, it won’t stop those who might profit from firearm sales from selling the narrative that gun control legislation is a real possibility (even if it’s pretty remote).


#19

I tracked gun stocks and they reliably ran up whenever there was a domestic gun related shooting making the news under Obama, who would invariably use the occasion to call for more gun control (even if the proposals would not have influenced the event or shooter in question). This scared people into buying more guns and drove up profits for gun manufacturers like RGR and AOBC (the new Smith and Wesson ticker). It was less clear to me this time, but I did think about getting up early to try for premarket shares of these stocks, but didn’t bother since the facts weren’t all in and if Obama couldn’t pass his gun control, you can bet it won’t pass a Republican Congress and president. Today these stocks are up about 5%.


#20

I thought about jumping in as well, but I guess my conscience weighs too heavily and the idea of trying to make money off of a mass shooting just didn’t sit well with me. I guess I’m just a wimp. And it shows how I turn a blind eye to things like Foxconn workers committing suicide, etc. but I buy AAPL stock anyway.