For anyone who likes to look at macro economic performance and indicators, this is a great presentation care of JP Morgan. Worth skimming the whole thing since it covers so much ground you’ll surely find some things of interest.
Topics include timing/stats of recessions, causes of vol spikes, factor / style returns, unemployment trends, corp earnings, contributions to GDP, government balance sheets, hedge fund / private equity returns and correlations, etc.
Yeah, this presentation is pretty cool but I was hoping I’d see some trailing P/E stats too.
I’m thinking current earnings estimates might be too high and we’ll see them revised downward which implies a higher forward P/E.
The chart on p.7 seems to show a decent amount of estimated growth in the 12-month forward earnings (estimated four quarters compared to trailing four quarters). P.7 also shows that profit margins are currently very elevated and if they come down that pressures earnings growth downward. P.46 seems to show that growth indicators are “surprising” to the downside and the trend is getting worse (i.e., actual results are currently coming in lower than consensus estimated they would).
If you look at P7 and P46 together, doesn’t it point that market expectations for growth may be slightly over-estimated. That makes me wonder if the real P/E in the next 12 months are not going to fall short of those moderate P/E forward values (i.e. much higher P/E values than anticipated). Overall, to me, this data does not paint a very promising picture for growth beyond the next few months.