Black Swan Events

Agreed

For the losers here, their “Kodak moment” consisted of being eaten alive by a black swan. Ugh!!

Update

For far too many Americans this pandemic black swan event remains ongoing and most serious, with significant impact nearly everywhere.

We have not experienced a pandemic of this severity for over one hundred years. But that history is perhaps least instructive when future pandemic event assessments are being attempted.

Like other black swan events, pandemics are unpredictable and occur randomly. Simply because we are at present in the midst of a COVID-19 black swan does not obviate, for example, a COVID-20 black swan. Two pandemics at once? Well, it would be the blackest of swans, but such a thing is surely possible.

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Sequoia Capital thought it was a black swan, but it’s turned into a plump, white goose. :smile:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-06/sequoia-capital-s-black-swan-warning-gives-way-to-huge-returns?srnd=premium

Remember, we were posting about the housing crash in 2004 on FWF. But predicting if something will happen doesn’t do one much good unless one can also accurately predict when.

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Hmmm. It would appear others are significantly more prescient than myself:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/black-swan-funds-thrive-wall-141151221.html

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When the skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the very ‘worst year’ ever to be alive

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The year was 536. Climate change was upon the land. Big time. But it’s not the sort of climate change that comes to mind today. This was REAL. It actually happened. It was cataclysmic. And it could happen again at any time.

When the skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the very ‘worst year’ ever to be alive

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Today’s climate change is also real. You just have to remember, “change” is one of the few words that has been allowed to retain it’s true meaning. The change may or may not be significant, depending on who you talk to, and the cause may or may not be anything humans have any responsibility for or control over, depending on who you talk to, but there technically has been a measurable change in the earth’s climate over the past couple decades.

Oh, and just ignore the fact that similar levels of change, be it up or down, have ebbed and flowed ever since such measurements first started to be recorded.

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Are you certain about this? Cause last I checked, the current rate of increase is unmatched.

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Couple of decades? I’m pretty sure the “the earth’s climate” has been warming measurably for nigh on 20000 years.

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We’ve previously mentioned the whole “We’re all gonna freeze to death!” claims from the 70s. There may be a broad upwards trend over 20,000 years, but there have been [much] shorter warming and cooling cycles within that trend.

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I’m not sure of the correct offensive posture to take on this, but I certainly expect something to come of it in my lifetime.

The title is for eyeballs, but the facts appear accurate.

‘Huge, Missing and Growing:’ $65 Trillion in Dollar Debt Sparks Concern

There’s a hidden risk to the global financial system embedded in the $65 trillion of dollar debt being held by non-US institutions via currency derivatives, according to the Bank for International Settlements.