CD Discussion Thread

We’ll just borrow more to pay the interest. Problem solved! :crazy_face:

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i agree that we are just delaying the inevitable. The only question is when will that happen. Obviously, a Biden Fed will do everything it can not to increase interest rates despite prolong and accelerating inflation. However, just like in 1979, at some point they will have to increase rates to punishing levels because the alternative will be even worse. The only difference is it will be much more painful this time because the interest costs will consume a much higher percentage of the federal budget.

The most important takeaway for savers now is don’t commit to long term CDs with high withdrawal penalties, no matter how tempting it may be. The most i would go out now is 2 to 2.5 yrs.

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Right now I’m on pretty good financial footing, but certainly increasing % percentage rate for funds would be helpful.

I’m using Keesler HIMMA Plus 1.40% accounts which will hold up (for me) until March, 2022. Luckily, I transferred my money before the closing date for new HIMMA Plus accounts.

Imagine, thinking 1.4% is nice. I have 2/3 CD’s that recently matured, old percentage rate 3%.

Got to get used to poor money rates probably for at least another year IMO. Let’s Go Brandon…. :blush:

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Interest rate green shoots?

Are there green shoots, interest rate wise? Maybe.

I am noticing tiny increases in CD interest rates here and there. It’s nothing to become excited about. CD interest rates remain for now appallingly low. But small increases are better than further declines.

Anticipation

We witnessed it several years ago at Sharonview and at Garden Savings. The potentates at those venerable financial institutions perceived, wrongly as things turned out, an upward trend in CD interest rates. They sought to get out in front of the (albeit nonexistent) trend. We CD aficionados benefitted.

Could this happen again? Once burned twice shy? Obviously I dunno. But certainly worth keeping your eyes wide open.

Thing is, this time around and unlike before with Sharonview and Garden Savings, a bite of the anticipatory CD apple might leave you wishing you had dry powder as CD rates move even higher down the line.

This is what I’m predicting. We will soon (6 months?) start to see ‘really great’ 5-year CD rates in the 2% range, as banks try to get customers locked in before rates go even higher. They’re holding off as long as they can, but as soon as the Fed makes an affirmative move towards raising rates, the floodgates will open.

I’m thinking that, over the next couple years, I will end up considering it to have been a mistake to lock up anything for more than 12-18 months at a time. Unless it’s a very generous long term deal.

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I am respectful of your thinking and I thank you for sharing it with our group here.

For me, despite all the years I have been doing this, the new element I have a lot of trouble factoring is thirty trillion dollars of debt and growing. I have never operated prior in the presence of so much red ink, something which considerably devalues my experience.

I mean, just as a fanciful exercise, consider our (i.e. America’s) situation thirty trillion in the hole were interest rates of the early 1980’s to resurface! Can anyone say “Argentina”?

The massive, overwhelming, debt will act to keep a damper on interest rate increases. But to what extent I cannot say. So long as external entities, e.g. China, are willing to buy our paper, at ridiculously low rates of interest, there will be no pressure to increase rates generally, and that includes CD interest rates.

How this is all going to play out is frankly beyond my ken.

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Inflation is the pressure. The FED controls short-term rates, but the national debt is at long-term rates. Long-term rates tend to follow the short-term rates somewhat, but they’re not directly related. Our “paper” is only so close to 0% because external entities are willing to bid it up to 0%. They could keep doing that even if the FED increases short-term rates. Or they could stop bidding (regardless of FED action) and we’d have to pay a higher interest rate on that debt. Right?

Thank you for my laugh of the day. It ranks right up their with Uncle Joe’s shovel-ready hobs. :grinning:

So did you just take six lines to repeat what @shinbone said in three?

I wrote the opposite. He said there’s no pressure on the FED to increase interest rates because China is buying our long-term bonds. This doesn’t make any sense, because the FED controls short-term rates, inflation is the pressure to raise those rates, and it has nothing to do with long-term rates or China’s interest in buying our paper.

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It’s Powell!

(for another four years)

Ken has today published his analysis of the situation at the Fed. This is almost required reading for CD fans:

Ken looks at the Fed

Executive summary for those disinclined to click:

Ken thinks Powell’s Senate confirmation is in the bag.

Ken sees Biden appointing three new Fed members in the not distant future. Prediction is these new people, along with the new Fed vice-chair Brainard, will lean dovish.

Ken’s bottom line is that the above will cause interest rates going forward to rise more slowly than might otherwise be the case . . . with different, more hawkish, new Fed members.

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I only mentioned Lael Brainard (above) as an aside. That was a mistake. She is really bad news for us savers:

Brainard’s dovishness goes well beyond anything I realized prior. She believes interest rates should remain low until unemployment numbers for minorities, in particular, are very low.

Brainard spent her childhood in Europe, not here. She is a global climate change warrior and is bad news for us. The one good thing I can say here, for savers, is that at least Biden did not choose her as Fed chair. We dodged a bullet there, guys.

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bad news for us, like the rest of his clan,(klan) as Biden was best friends wirh Stom Thurmond back then. Spoke at his funeral too.

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BTW non CD post here but related :Presidential bank has a 2.25 % checking acct up to 25k. Saw it on Doc. I already have it working. All you do is DD (Alliant works) 500 per statement cycle and do 7 bill pays per cycle. Set up my AMEX OBC and BCP plus Comcast for the 7 BP monthly auto. Not bad for 2.25. had to do the sig card via snail mail as its using a 1990 web structure. Also HMBradley going strong at 3%. Lost my 3.5 % starting Jan 1 because my SS DD is less then 2500 monthly. And The NYCERS (NY pension fund) does not allow Bradley for some reason. They also have an old web system. Do not want to mess with it. Stuck with my pension arriving in Citi every month.

Guys this new COVID-19 variant is impacting hopes and expectations for higher interest rates. The following lift is from the Wall Street Journal:

Covid-19 Variant Upends Investor Bets on Rate Increases

Bond yields slid and investors quickly adjusted how quickly they expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates

Investors piled into government bonds and quickly recalibrated their expectations for interest rate increases in response to the new Covid-19 variant first identified in South Africa.

As if we savers don’t already have enough problems. Groan. :unamused:

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Reminder for certain CD fans:

If you care about the financial well being of the bank or credit union where your CD resides, well, it’s finally December! :slightly_smiling_face:

Expect before Christmas availability of Q3 2021 ratings from the various services, Ken, Bauer, and Weiss.

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Friday AM

This morning’s disappointing November jobs report does not mitigate in favor of higher interest rates.

In addition, this morning’s report does not reflect impact of the COVID-19 omicron variant, something which might act to hold interest rate increases in check.

Ken is reporting a number of examples of higher CD interest rates here and there. But these higher rates are still very low.

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I need to find a temporary home (1 year or less) to $50K. Best rate I can find is about 0.70%. Any suggestions?

Lafayette

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