You do no one any favors by lying about what people said.
The study was 2.2M with completely uncontrolled spread. That would be doing nothing at all. That was NOT an estimate of where we would actually be. Where is your reference to Fauci claiming we’d have over 2M actually die from covid in the US?
Yes, that means by this April with the federal failures in 2020 we will already be over a quarter of the absolutely worst possible outcome that was imagined if everyone just went about their day.
Yes, but his same model also included a social distancing version as well which predicted 1.1M deaths [Mitigation tab, US at the bottom], which is still way higher than anything plausible at this point. And those numbers were for the very lowest end of the R value for transmission, so given we now think the new strains may be 50% worse, his model would now be 1.5-2.8M deaths for the US with or without social distancing measures.
Where is your reference to Fauci claiming we’d have over 2M actually die from covid in the US?
From the links and clarified in my post, i was citing Ferguson on the deaths and Fauci on the vaccine timeline.
We’re already locked in for around 600k just with an optimistic estimate of confirmed covid19 deaths by April 1 (healthdata.org.org). Excess deaths will be higher when the dust settls.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hospitalized-covid-19-then-hospitalized-130146859.html
Significant readmissions because of continuing illness from covid.
Still making stuff up, I see…
As to your article, the claim is based on
A study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of 106,543 coronavirus patients initially hospitalized between March and July found that 1 in 11 was readmitted within two months of being discharged, with 1.6% of patients readmitted more than once.
In another study of 1,775 coronavirus patients discharged from 132 VA hospitals in the pandemic’s early months, nearly a fifth were rehospitalized within 60 days. More than 22% of them needed intensive care, and 7% required ventilators.
And in a report on 1,250 patients discharged from 38 Michigan hospitals from mid-March to July, 15% were rehospitalized within 60 days.
Such data ignores the fact that the sickly and elderly are those most likely to have been hospitalized in the first place, and already faced a high risk of requiring hospitalization. I’d bet virtually anything that comparable samples would show similar hospitalization rates in the months prior to being diagnosed with Covid.
Covid doc and good teacher interviewed on his medical recommendations for people who just test positive.
things you might not have known
India gave their approval to the AZN vaccine, which they are producing locally as well as for export, and will soon begin vaccinations. This vaccine is a more traditional approach, cheaper but seemingly somewhat less effective (but still good) than the mRNA ones.
Local logistics are the bottleneck for vaccinations. Here’s NJ.
More than 70% of New Jersey’s supply of COVID-19 vaccine has not been used as of Thursday… Despite months of planning, state officials said Wednesday a lack of personnel, along with logistics and timing issues were to blame.
New Jersey has been awarded over 400,000 vaccine doses by the federal government, but only 265,000 doses have been delivered. The remainder is expected at the end of this week
In short, the Federal level and company production delays, while regrettable, haven’t impacted the speed of vaccinations since the states are even slower and more delayed in their ability to organize vaccinations. I’m sure this is all Trump’s fault somehow.
Side note - NJ is giving the vaccine to healthcare workers and prisoners first.
I learned this also this week… I believe you have to be 50+ as well.
Which is another reason why the overall spread still matters, even if we pretend there’s no complications in any of the recoveries in younger age groups. (Majority of hospitalizations are NOT elderly now).
Looks like they’re about half for 65+, and a quarter each of 50-65 and <50. The youngest group was somewhat higher in the summer, getting up to 40%, but now things have gone back to about were they were earlier on with the older groups rising. Are you seeing something else?
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_5.html (top chart, % view)
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/theres-no-running-away-numbers-140800261.html
“To have 300,000 cases in a given day, and between two and 3,000 deaths a day is just terrible,”
the U.S. this weekend topped 20 million COVID-19 cases and 350,000 deaths since the onset of the pandemic 10 months ago.
“The deaths are real deaths,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said, when asked by Raddatz for his response to the president’s tweet. “All you need to do is go out into the trenches. Go to the hospitals and see what the health care workers are dealing with. They are under very stressful situations in many areas of the country. The hospital beds are stretched, people are running out of beds, running out of trained personnel who are exhausted.”
“That’s real,” he continued. “That’s not fake. That’s real.”
Just terrible. What’s sad is that other countries used our inventions (smartphones, infection control etc) and got it under control
Not so much “inventions” (debatable assigning things like phones to solely one place), but yes… Unfortunately Trump killed the international cooperation program that was running through multiple administrations.
Many of them fortunately learned from the programs.
Many countries now have their own health organizations named “CDC” in homage to the CDC leadership.
No, the same. It’s ~50%under 50. Only a quarter over 65.
50 is not “elderly”, even 65 isn’t the “elderly” group usually referred to for covid19 mortality,.
That’s not number total number of unique people hospitalized, though… Presumably the younger age groups have lower durations in the hospitals, in which case they are taking up an even larger majority of those becoming ill enough to require hospitalization because they’re still taking up 50% of the beds. Not sure though, I don’t see the overall number of unique patients hospitalized broken into demographics.
Be aware close to one dozen vaccine types, against COVID-19, exist at present. You might at some time in future be required to make a decision regarding which vaccine type you wish to employ personally, and for protection of your family members.
For Americans at present, only five of the vaccine type alternatives, are relevant. They are:
Pfizer-BioNTech (mRNA)
Moderna (mRNA)
Johnson + Johnson (Adenovirus)
Novavax (protein)
Oxford-AstraZeneca (Adenovirus)
It is not too early to begin deciding which of the above is, in your view, the best choice.
Thanks, Shin. I’ve already made a bold decision to select number six. That decision is firm for the next 24 hours, or until another option is added - whichever is earlier. 
The WHO is “very disappointed” in China denying their team entrance to investigate the origins of the Wuhan Flu.
That’s even after the WHO lapdog investigation wouldn’t even be going to the Wuhan lab and is being headed by the China-approved US gain-of-function virologist who’s been saying how no one should be assigning blame and had been collaborating with WIV before. No doubt he doesn’t want to find evidence for another 4-5 year ban on his branch of research. And still China won’t let them in…
China is also blocking access to the bat caves were they try to claim it came from (when they’re not saying it’s a US military plot or came from an Italian origin via frozen food!), because viral sequences from there might show evidence of modifications vs covid that would reflect badly on their propaganda efforts. Those supposedly related bat viruses were supposedly found in the caves far from Wuhan, but given there was some very shady reporting on that related virus by the Wuhan Virology lab (they reported that viral RNA sequence much much later than they found it, with no samples or research on it, or citations), this suggested the similar viral sequence may well have been made up as a pretext to show similarity to a natural one and deflect suspicion from their lab.
“definitely nothing to hide”