Article “writer” is blind. Chart displayed for Florida claiming there is no rise seen in deaths is false. You can clearly see a ~50% rise week over week at the end. Which corresponds to the relative rise in cases as of a few weeks before…
There’s no separate scaling (for cases vs deaths) or smoothing to intentionally make it appear that there’s little change. There’s slightly more cases detected per death on that chart for the midterm to now (adjusting with the 2-3week lag), which accounts for slightly better test availability, but not a significant reduction. More importantly, corresponding with the huge spike at the end there is also a huge spike in positivity rate, meaning it would be highly unexpected if that same lower “cases vs deaths” ratio will stay the same as when the positivity rate was much lower. (Positivity rate’s actually a little more complicated and can be misleading, but in this case there’s less test availability and tougher rules to even seek a test).
Texas’s chart for testing rates and positivity looks bad, too. It climbed and climbed and then stayed at just under 15% for the past week (the max from earlier in the year), but daily amount of tests has increased dramatically this past week – without reducing the positivity rate – because cases dramatically increased, too
We’ve got 3+ weeks to wait until we see the effects on death rates from July 4, if any. Edit: could be more like 5 weeks, I don’t know…
This was the headline story on national broadcast news (and not Fox). Spiking cases, continued low deaths. Offered a number of reasons why it could be. But no one disputed it was true or claimed it was inaccurate.
Of course, in conclusion the reporter summarized that all 5 experts agreed the death rate would soon spike as well, when literally 30 seconds earlier 2 had said “yes, that’s a possibility” and another merely said that people will continue dieing.
Reason 1 – that starts going out the window in the future as /while/where the positivity rates remain at record highs. Because younger and less symptomatic and asymptomatic aren’t getting access to tests anymore under the same rules.
Reason 2 – remains to be seen how effective the changes are with that situation. Hopefully there are improvements. If the workers aren’t tested frequently (with no symptoms) because locally overall cases are out of control, it seems nearly impossible to fully insulate those old age homes.
Reason 3 – called out above.
The national chart is also not going up as much as looking at particular states because rise elsewhere is still being offset slightly by decreases in a few areas hit hard early on that are maintaining prudent caution. So the single “national” chart in effect has as even longer lag.
It would be great if the virus mutated to be 99% harmless, but we have no evidence of such…
I was just pointing out that the articleblog? “writer”'s own provided chart in the article does not match the written text in that same article, claiming no rise was to be seen on the Florida chart. It’s not very surprising as many can’t read basic charts and graphs.
FYI healthdata.org has updated tonight with the last week’s data.
Looks a little strange though on some states I’ve looked at… seems like something’s off, maybe the model can’t handle the large recent increases well. The “estimated infections” daily numbers is lower than even the confirmed infections numbers (e.g., TX, FL).
Tx fatalities so far from this week are looking like the spike that started ~3 weeks ago. (3-4 weeks is my guess in approximate average lag just based on the two charts. TX gov said more along 5 weeks lag a couple days ago, which would present a worse picture… There’s a little less increase in “cases” ~5 weeks ago but the positivity rate was already increasing then – meaning “new cases” was likely only “counting” a more serious subset of cases and under-representing the actual virus spread). Looks like numbers are going to go way up in the next couple weeks.
Despite increasing the total “staffed hospital beds” number significantly throughout the week, we’re down to about half of the reported available beds compared to a week ago in several regions. Another week of continued increases and hospitals could be in bad shape across the state.
I predict a new (and even less believable) “theory” will start to be pushed later this week in place of the “Cases go up, Deaths go down! You can’t explain that!” trope that the admin and some states (Desantis) have been pushing for the last several weeks.
But, to the thread topic: Will the undeniable and obvious rise in national deaths (evident in the next few days even to the people who can’t understand how time lag from case detection to deaths works) have any effect on the market or is it “priced in” already? Or will the Fed just dump another few $T directly into the market once it drops a few percent? SPY 5000!
Patty was most certainly thinking about the trend from mid April to the end of June when it was going down steadily.
And if you’re looking at the orangish 7 day trend then the increase your’e talking for the past few days is not very noticeably relative to the whole charts trend.
I’m daily questioning my own wisdom in going to such great lengths to avoid COVID-19. In particular I would dearly love to go into a supermarket and stock up on fresh food. I’ve not done so so far, even though I believe the risk is VERY low. But just as I’m approaching the possibility of going in, along comes more news confirming in no uncertain terms the inadvisability of contracting this infection. And I’m NOT thinking of a concern regarding death, though that, too, is a possibility.
Anyway, progress is slow here at home, and you take your mini-victories wherever you can find them. I am slowly running out of apples. They are my own that I picked personally last fall. I use them, generally one every other day, cut up into small pieces in my oatmeal for breakfast. Along with raisins and (powdered) milk and brown sugar it makes a decent main course.
But I’ve been wondering what to do when the apples are finally gone. Well, brainstorm followed by good fortune. I tested this today and it worked. I had bought some inexpensive canned pears from WalMart.com and they were of decent quality but not very sweet, so I was sort of “sitting on them” in the refrigerator. Suddenly inspiration struck: substitute the pears for the apples!!
Bottom line: it worked and I’m a happy camper. Now have a breakfast main course which can be sourced 100% online. And that is the Holy Grail in this pandemic which, it appears, is gonna be with us for a while.
Yes & what about the t-paper. My stock is getting low. I’ve got to make a run to Costco & like you the thought of the virus, slows me down. The thing is even Costco may not have any t-paper.
My pantry is beginning to look pretty bare. I’m making a list of must have items. #1 is coffee. I use cof beans & Costco has the best supply. Columbian 2 pak along with Starbucks. I mix the two & grind. It’s outstanding.
Did any of you see the lady on the internet that refused to wear a mask at Costco? She was 70 yrs old & absolutely caused a scandal. She plopped down on the floor, but they stuck to their gun & she had to leave. Really funny.
I really suspect that all these random complications are mostly things those people were already predisposed to, if not already unknowingly suffering from. And at worst C19 is just causing it to emerge sooner than it would’ve naturally.
I had no problems whatsoever buying that at WalMart.com. Got a good brand, too: Scott. Twenty rolls last quite a long time.
WalMart.com is taking care of most of my needs. Target.com is covering many of those remaining. They both ship, the food and supplies arrive, and I do not need to go into a supermarket.
As for Costco . . . . . they have no presence whatsoever here where I live or anywhere nearby. I would probably have to drive two or three hours to find one . . . am not even sure.
Yeah, who knows. I’m no doctor. Anything is possible.
But this COVID-19 virus appears to me to facilitate, or promulgate, all sorts of disorders and problems short of death. I’m really overboard on remaining healthy. I do not want to come down with even minor ailments. Life is a lot less fun to live when you are ill. If I can avoid becoming ill, I’ll pay the price and follow that course.
