Does the coronavirus merit investment, or personal, concern or consideration?

The great “kids getting back to covid in schools” experiment is on and the early results are starting to roll in.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/child-covid-19-cases-rise-in-states-where-schools-opened-earliest-11630834201

Average daily new cases among school-age children grew at faster rates last month in all 20 states where schools opened in late July and early August, as compared with the states where schools opened later. Half of those states, which include Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina and Louisiana, have seen record rates of new daily infections among children and teens since school started

The shutdowns are hitting classrooms especially hard in the Deep South, where most schools were among the first to open, a possible warning of what’s to come as the rest of the nation’s students start school this month… in Georgia, more than half of the state’s outbreaks for the week ended Aug. 27 were linked to schools, according to the state health department

That’s Delta for you. In comparison, most of Europe had trouble linking any early covid outbreaks to schools for the first year or so (under Wuhan Classic), since even in the places that had most schools closed, they still ran a limited number for the kids of essential workers.

Right, and all the criticism of the existing, nearly all positive / favorable ivermectin-vs-early-covid trials has been that they have been smaller and not large RCTs. Guess how much it costs to run a large, multi-state RCT? More than anyone will make off a generic that sells for $3/pill. So that’s why meta analyses of all the smaller trials doctors are running locally (because they care about saving lives) are important.

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All fine questions to ask your doctor. These guys are doctors and here are their answers.

What’s the recommended dose of Ivermectin for covid-19? How many times a day?

They have a nice chart at the back for how many pills corresponds to the 0.2mg/kg recommended preventative dosing, and that’s a twice weekly dose. The amount is 2-3x higher daily if you have early stage covid.

How does it interact with other drugs? How does it work with other health conditions?

Drug interactions are rare, the most common of which is with the blood thinner warfarin, and you could check a quick list here. Of course you should alert your proscribing doctor to any medicines or health conditions you have just to be sure.

When do you start taking it? When do you stop taking it?

Whenever you’re in a high risk situation, such as travel, until around a week after that and you’re sure you didn’t get sick. Or if you’re an at-risk person probably you keep taking it preventatively all the time, or at least until better treatments are available or until the prevalence of covid is way way down. Vaccines aren’t 100%, and less so with Delta, so a second line of defense could be prudent in cases where you’re likely to get a bad outcome if you end up as a “breakthrough” case.

The manufacturer, the FDA, CDC, WHO, AMA, Pharmacists Association, and American Society of Health-System Pharmacists issued statements warning that ivermectin is not approved or authorized for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19 and advised against its use for that purpose.

I find this concerning.

Yes, I find the regulatory capture and inaction on this promising therapeutic and prophylactic very concerning as well.

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Hint

If you want to get a clue regarding these things which concern you, just:

Follow the Money!

Pursuant to my reply, above, to Argyll . . . about money:

One of the things I found most concerning last year involved Fauci. Now Fauci commands the highest salary of any worker on the government payroll . . . far higher than POTUS, for example. But for Fauci that is insufficient. He has investments in big pharma.

Can you say: Conflict of interest?

It’s a problem with many medical professionals. Medicine is what they know best, and big pharma is a huge player in that realm. When is their medical judgement influenced by their investments? How would we lay people know?

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So there were more cases in schools that were open than in schools that were not open? That seems like something that shouldnt even need to be said.

Does this report say anything about outbreaks? “Cases” can be as simple as vaccinated parents being relatively careless in their own activities and bringing the virus into their homes. There’s no indication that schools are the nexus for this (athough going to school likely prompts more testing than when kids are sitting at home anyways and the parents dont bother).

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This was the line in the WSJ article that gave me some concern.

in Georgia, more than half of the state’s outbreaks for the week ended Aug. 27 were linked to schools, according to the state health department

Otherwise, yes lots of cases in kids could just be lots of cases from their surroundings given there are lots of cases broadly in the South right now.

Thanks for the background. Sounds like the difference between the subsequent non-confirmation in adults and the positive sepsis results in kids were to do with how quickly the patient was able to be treated in their disease process.

A lot of covid studies have had inconsistent timing in when people were getting treated with whatever possible therapy (plasma, HCQ, various antivirals, etc ) and I know a few of those that stratified their results by how soon the treatment was given saw good results early and increasingly inconclusive ones if you waited too long to give it. The mixture of patient timings meant that the studies were often inconclusive in aggregate and underpowered to prove statistical significance for the earlier fraction of patients.

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Oh, there’s definitely a pattern…

Here’s more on the Rolling Stone hit piece on ivermectin poisoning, and readership biases generally.

I think the most likely scenario is that ivermectin is causing a few hospitalizations, but pretty few. Oklahoma hospitals are overcrowded for unrelated reasons (eg there’s a deadly global pandemic). A doctor talked on the local news about the overcrowding and the occasional ivermectin cases, and someone at some point - either the doctor or the local news people - intentionally or unintentionally recast things so that the ivermectin was causing the overcrowding. Maybe they thought this was fair, because even one case “contributes to” the overcrowding in some sense. Then national and international media picked it up. Then some random unrelated Oklahoma hospital put out a bulletin saying they weren’t involved in any of this, and lots of people interpreted this as disproving the whole story. It didn’t really disprove anything, but by happy coincidence the story had been false all along, so whatever.

This story doesn’t make me feel smug and superior to everyone else. It makes me feel confused and annoyed.

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Details on the Wuhan coronavirus gain of function research your tax dollars funded.

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mu

Columbia sent us Juan Valdez: good

Columbia sent us Sofía Vergara: very good!

But now Columbia has sent us the μ variant: not so good

And it is already in 49 states.

Starting to see “1 in 5,000” as the stat oft being repeated as the likelihood of a breakthrough infection. Apparently my boss should have bought a lottery ticket.

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The article does not mention “gain of function research”.

My understanding of “gain of function research” in layman’s terms is: genetically modifying a virus to infect humans. I.e., the virus is modified to gain a new biological function – an ability to infect humans.

The research mentioned in the article used genetically modified lab mice (“humanized mice”), so that existing bat viruses could be tested on those mice. With the goal of determining whether the (existing, unmodified) viruses can infect humans without actually using any human test subjects.

Unless my understanding is incorrect, or the article is incomplete, this is not “gain of function research.”

If the virus can infect the humanized mouse, it can infect a human. They taught it / selected for things adapted to human ACE2 receptors. Those who think it was a lab accident cite the seemingly immediate adaptation of covid to humans while normal cases of cross species infection don’t work very well in the foreign (human) environment until additional mutations accumulate. Covid doesn’t infect bats as far as we know, which would be kind of odd for a putative bat virus but entirely plausible for a gain of function outcome adapted for generations on humanized mice.

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But the “research your tax dollars funded” mentioned in the article you linked was not a “gain-of-function research” (a defined scientific term I described in layman’s terms above), even if it supposedly could have resulted in a “gain of function outcome” (not a scientific term, not one I could find anyway, but I understand you mean it as though the virus gained a function to infect humans by first infecting a humanized mice).

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The NIH says this on gain of function

The subset of GOF research that is anticipated to enhance the transmissibility and/or virulence of potential pandemic pathogens, which are likely to make them more dangerous to humans, has been the subject of substantial scrutiny and deliberation. Such GOF approaches can sometimes be justified in laboratories with appropriate biosafety and biosecurity controls to help us understand the fundamental nature of human-pathogen interactions, assess the pandemic potential of emerging infectious agents, and inform public health and preparedness efforts, including surveillance and the development of vaccines and medical countermeasures. This research poses biosafety and biosecurity risks, and these risks must be carefully managed. When supported with NIH funds, this subset of GOF research may only be conducted in laboratories with stringent oversight and appropriate biosafety and biosecurity controls(link is external) to help protect researchers from infection and prevent the release of microorganisms into the environment.

Evolving a novel virus in humanized mice would seem to fit that definition as I read it. WIV was using BS level 2 only for a lot of their work, which we now know is insufficient to protect against airborne things like covid.

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You seem to be asserting that “evolving a novel virus in humanized mice” was the purpose or the anticipated outcome of the “research your tax dollars funded”.

Earlier you wrote:

What do you mean by “they taught it / selected for things”? I don’t see this mentioned in the article.

If you’re running viral infection experiments in humanized mice, that’s an environment where the virus can evolve and will be selected for traits that increase human infectivity.

From the grant proposal docs linked there.

The three specific aims of this project are to:
3. Test predictions of CoV inter-species transmission. Predictive models of host range (i.e. emergence potential) will be tested experimentally using reverse genetics, pseudovirus and receptor binding assays, and virus infection experiments across a range of cell cultures from different species and humanized mice.

With bat-CoVs that we’ve isolated or sequenced, and using live virus or pseudovirus infection in cells of different origin or expressing different receptor molecules, we will assess potential for each isolated virus and those with receptor binding site sequence, to spill over. We will do this by sequencing the spike (or other receptor binding/fusion) protein genes from all our bat-CoVs, creating mutants to identify how significantly each would need to evolve to use ACE2, CD26/DPP4 (MERS-CoV receptor) or other potential CoV receptors. We will then use receptor-mutant pseudovirus binding assays, in vitro studies in bat, primate, human and other species’ cell lines, and with humanized mice where particularly interesting viruses are identified phylogenetically, or isolated.

So try to make mutants that will infect humans, in theory, and test them. What could go wrong?

C3d) Humanized mouse in vivo infection experiments: To evaluate pathogenicity of bat-CoVs we will perform in vivo infection experiments in humanized mice modified to carry human ACE2 or DPP4 gene in the Wuhan Institute of Virology BSL-3 animal facility.

… at the Wuhan Lab…

Humanized mice will be genetically modified to carry human ACE2 or DPP4 gene will be used to evaluate pathogenesis of CoVs. We cannot anticipate exactly how many viruses we will find that are candidates for experimental models, however we estimate that we will use Principal Investigator/Program Director (Last, first, middle): Daszak, Peter

… supervised by the guy who organized the academic media campaign to say an accident under his watch was definitely impossible.

We found that the bat hosts of SARSr-CoVs appear to no longer be traded in wildlife markets, and that people living close to bat habitats are the primary risk groups for spillover.

So not the wet market, but could be those working closely with infected humanized mice, I suppose.

P3CO Research. Recognizing the implementation of new gain of function research guidelines under P3CO, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are subject to these guidelines, and as such, reverse genetic studies are subject to review. Our group has considerable expertise in interfacing with the appropriate NIH P3CO institutional review boards to review, revise and finalize research designs that have the potential to modify pathogenesis or transmissibility in mammals. Importantly, we are not proposing to genetically manipulate SARS-CoV over the course of this proposal. However, we are proposing to genetically manipulate the full length bat SARSr-CoV WIV1 strain molecular clone during the course of the proposal, which is not a select agent, has not been shown to cause human infections, and has not been shown to be transmissible between humans.

Famous last words?

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