I dont mean the concept of exponential growth is wrong, just where we are in the process. Simply because there would be far more people out there who are infected, and an unknown but ever-growing population of immune people. The data used for those projections would be severely understated.
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Some hopeful news here from Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist:
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So based on Trump’s latest ‘we’ll reevaluate this after the 15-day period ends next week’ stuff, does that mean that they now believe it’s better to accept the losses and move on to avoid wrecking the economy? He’s not the only one saying that folks have to get back to work. Perhaps it’ll be keep the sick/elderly/at-risk at home and let everyone else go.
It’s a theory that may sound good to a lot of folks but let’s see what happens when hospitals get overrun.
I think that might be what he has in mind.
So much will depend on the outcome of the NYC trials, starting today, arranged by Trump and Governor Cuomo. Those guys have been working very well together so far.
Nevermind the hospitals to be overrun with younger people sustaining permanent damage and more dying with that hypothetical course, even if we assume “old people” are kept in perfect isolation for years.
Yeah some of thats unnecessary politicing.
Bailing out the USPS and preparing for impact on the elections or throwing some benefit to the unions is not unrelated to coronavirus.
But yeah the diversity stuff and the carbon credits are really more unrelated and unnecessary.
Yeah The Nation is extremely bias with a clear liberal agenda to the point of crazy over the top made up conspiracy stuff. Their bias level is as bad or a bit worse that Fox News commentators even.
Maybe easier control in cities but I am pretty sure high popn density is still a very big net negative for disease spread.
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Yes agreed that article and his opinions are reassuring. Hopefuly he’s right.
I didn’t vet the specific source as a gold standard for that topic. The specific article doesn’t have glaring biases. Unless the numbers they quoted were all false – if there’s a factual error it should be pointed out… (They seem in line with other sources).
Yeah I didn’t read the article in question. I was commenting on THe Nation generally.
Levitt held up china as an example for resolution. It was over a month of an absolute lockdown and they’re finally opening up that area, nothing comparable to the “mitigation” “suggestions” here. S Korea’s the other example but their testing was and still is much more expansive.
And Levitt admitted several caveats and flaws. Just like:
“The trajectory of deaths backs up his findings, he said, since it follows the same basic trends as the new confirmed cases. So do data from outbreaks in confined environments, such as the one on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Out of 3,711 people on board, 712 were infected and eight died.”
—> This is not representative of an overwhelmed medical system. Those people were transported to well-equipped medical centers and then painstakingly monitored and treated by teams of doctors and multiple specialists (My city is one of the places they were treated. One of the specialists that was flying between the couple treatment cities goes to my barber…). That level of care is not extendable to 100000s.
With the opinions expressed in that article and the examples held up, it’s not very reassuring at all.
Edit: A very big issue with data from all other countries as well is on the subject of “recovery”. Recovery is not uniformly defined (and often not at all). “Not immediately dying” is not a good definition for “recovery”. I can’t personally conceive a reason they aren’t exposing any sort of definition of “recovery” and varying degrees thereof from the shared governmental data other than that the conclusions may be very negative. Maybe someone else has a different idea why there is no definition whatsoever of “recovery”???
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The reason it seems to be in the air still is because of people contracting the disease a second time. That means either they got infected again (despite isolation so talk about bad luck) or they became asymptomatic, thought to have recovered but were actually not 100% recovered. So that puts uncertainty on what recovery looks like. Compare it to bacterial infection treatment. Many people get asymptomatic within 2-3 days of antibiotic treatment. But there is a reason you’re usually prescribed 7-10 days of antibiotics because asymptomatic does not mean fully cleared.
The other somewhat chilling possibility is that COVID-19 could be one of those which are lifelong infections like HSV. So it’ll take a while to pinpoint what full recovery is exactly. In the meantime, you’d probably be asked to keep being asymptomatic for a long while before being officially recovered. As far as I’ve read, currently that was 3 weeks of no symptoms.
Testing negative and still being alive is generally not thought of as a recovery in other circumstances.
If you have the flu, “recover” and test negative, but still have ongoing pneumonia, that’s not a full recovery. Same with a bacterial infection being defeated but other complications remaining (and/or even resulting in death). I don’t think you’ll find may would classify those as “recoveries” either, just because the specific bacteria test came out negative.
The most common current “classification” for recovery used now for Covid19 seems to be just being dismissed from a hospital or testing negative, and not even necessarily both of those required. Die two weeks later – how’s that relevant? must’ve been unrelated. The person already “recovered”!
We are agreed that it takes more time to see long-term effects.
Checking White House Live at this hour:
There are no live streaming events scheduled. That is unusual, as by now the coronavirus task force presser would be either finished, underway, or at least announced.
?no clue?
“The U.S. is past this opportunity to control (COVID-19) without shutdown,” Gates said during a TED Connects program broadcast online. “We did not act fast enough to have an ability to avoid the shutdown.”
“It’s January when everybody should’ve been on notice,” Gates added.
“It’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner, we want you to keep spending because there’s some politician that thinks GDP growth is what counts,’”
The sky is falling!
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January, Bill? Oh, you mean back when half the Congress was on FIRE in an effort to remove a duly elected POTUS they had impeached over a telephone call! Yeah, January, I remember that. And still POTUS maintained the presence of mind to cut off all flights from China very early in February and before he was even acquitted. How he managed that I have no clue, but he did.
Good way to ensure POTUS can devote 100% of his attention to his job: impeach the bastard over nothing because you hate him that much.
Bill Gates. Anybody remember Gates’ war against Netscape Navigator? What an honorable guy he is! And there are so many other examples of the shameful way he operated.
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Please indicate on the doll where Nancy Pelosi touched you.
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Not me, pardner. But she obviously is somebody you worship. And rest assured you have my blessing. I don’t mess with 80 year old hags who represent cities having feces and discarded needles strewn in their streets.
^^^ the indoctrination is strong with this one, no point in arguing.
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