I think the panic is self-feeding. The more people panic, the emptier the shelves, the more people panic.
Also I figured out why Amazon had some anti-price-gouging enforcement. They wanted to keep all the price-gouging profits to themselves by raising the prices on all the in-demand items, like face masks / respirators.
That’s how viruses spread! 
Epic autocorrect fail.
An interesting article here saying coronavirus impact could lead to a fifty basis point Fed cut at their meeting in a few weeks. The article actually points to a lot more doom and gloom than that (negative interest rates, recession), all attributable to the coronavirus. Here is a link:
Coronavirus portends doom and gloom in economy
Probably important to bear in mind this comes out of NY City, from Bloomberg L.P., on the eve of Super Tuesday. Could there be any bias or wishful thinking? You decide.
I had moved some money into treasuries in January but I’ve also taken money out of savings last week for just that reason. Yields are gonna continue to drop for a while, central banks have signaled intervention (rate cuts) very likely due to virus-induced slow down in economy. And stocks are still a bit overpriced even after last week’s slump. So I’m waiting for another 8-10% index drop before buying back in. That could be too early but I’m not gonna sweat over calling the correct bottom if I can buy at 20% bargain :).
Not wishful thinking at all. Fed Funds is 1.75% now and 10 year treasuries are trading just above 1% yields. Market is looking for 0.5-0.75% rate cuts, at least if those yields persist.
I think the concept of stocks being on sale applies more to individual stocks, not the broader market. The market needs/needed a correction regardless, which doesnt really make current prices a discount. But there were plenty of stocks that were considered to be good value bets before last week’s 20% meltdown, and their long term future outlook hasnt really changed.
Yes, thankfully the long term outlook has not changed. IMO last week was only what was a long overdue correction. I still think that the fear and short-term over-reacting will correct beyond what was needed after this long an expansion. How much it’ll go into over-correction is anyone’s guess.
But either way, I was going to invest $26k (2019-2020 combined with DH) into our Roth IRAs during Q1-early Q2 time frame, now the contributions are sitting in treasuries waiting for the right time to move into equities. In that sense, I think equities are on sale vs. what I could have purchased them at last month.
How the heck this became a climate science denier thread? Please take that to another thread.
Anyway, I’m alarmed and has been for weeks that’s why I did a 30% change to money market fund a few weeks ago. For the record, I;m usually the one that calls out people for being chicken little but not this time. Honestly, I can’t really rationally justify my feeling right now either but seeing entire metro area gets shutdown makes me very worried about the economic impact this will have.
Wrote that four days ago. Sale could be over. Dow up more than 1200 points yesterday and the Dow futures this morning up over another 200 points.
Things move fast in 2020. More is becoming known about this coronavirus. Small numbers of people, very sadly, DO perish. But most recover. Many have only the most modest symptoms. Things improving even in China.
This is not Ebola.
Also, secondarily, but still having some market impact: there is now serious, more focused, competition for Bernie which had not yet materialized four days ago.
Usually, weeks with large drops are followed by short-lived recoveries the next week so that was somewhat expected. Not saying it’ll follow the same pattern this time but it makes sense that some people are propping the market by buying the dip. Still it feels very uncertain. Nobody seems to really grasp the full impact this will have so there’s lots of fear for the worst in terms of short-term impact.
Flu gets a 0.5% rate cut from the Fed.
Trump admin talking about making Coronavirus treatments free, paying hospitals etc 110% Medicare rates for treatment. Nothing firm yet.
It’s probably nothing.
I like this quote. Are you comparing international corporations with “historical” US only business? And effectively applying a large multiple on valuea of every company that’s now listed on multiple exchanges, in multiple counties? Or dividing them all down first to only apply to the US portion of the businesses (or even go further to the percentage of US GDP that the listed companies actually make up for each given year) so that the “relative to GDP” comparison is actually meaningful? None of this has remained constant throughout the time periods you are comparing.
Did you mean “drop”?
Afaik, he’s specifically said stocks are cheap while they were already at the extreme highs of the “Buffet indicator” stocks to gdp.
Such as in 2017 https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/us-always-comes-back-and-wins-says-warren-buffett.html
Relevant to my prior suggestion that interest rates must be taken into account for determining if PE ratios are reasonable, a direct quote from the interview is:
" “We are not in a bubble territory” in the stock market, he said on “Squawk Box.” If rates were to spike, however, then the stock market would be more expensive, he added."
I searched a little and didn’t see any such statements if the market cap to gdp already accounting for the things I asked about, I would be interested in seeing such.
I just got back from the grocery stores and the panic buying of bottled water and toilet paper is real. Even white rice is sold out! People are the worst.
Were you there for bottle water, toilet paper, and white rice?
Yes but for profit, not consumption. Obviously.
How’s that any better? 
So I tried ordering a couple reusable respirators with filter cartridges (you know, for marking gang territory with spray paint when SHTF) over a week ago. Looks like I might end up with 2 sets of filters but without the masks 
. In this day and age, not displaying correct inventory online or cancelling orders even though there’s inventory is unacceptable.