I have not seen actual data showing this. The ones I’ve seen do not show that alarming trend. According to this, if you’re in your 30s/40s, you have 0.2%0.4% chance of dying from it.
It’s still more than the flu but I also read another article from the WHO saying the death rates are likely much lower due to under-reporting of mild cases. It’s the same issue with the flu. A lot of people with mild symptoms never go see their doctor for it. So it’s hard to accurately assess. But the symptoms are similar and the deaths are from the resulting pneumonia in either cases so it’s not hard to see why the comparison is made often.
I’m nevertheless sensitive and sympathetic to ZenNuts’ plight. Am confident I would not be doing as well as he/she is doing were I being subjected to similar circumstances.
Years ago when I was working I had to travel all over the USA and Europe. Even though I was much younger, and certainly more capable, than I am now I still didn’t like it.
Life in the fast lane is surely not for everyone, though some people thrive on the stimulation. But when a coronavirus is present in the fast lane . . . well . . . that might be a stimulation overload.
I’m in Western Washington as well and work at Microsoft. We are WFH for the next three weeks, along with corporate employees from Amazon, Boeing, Starbucks, Facebook, etc.
Luckily we have really good remote work tools, but it is certainly not business as usual here and as this spreads across the US (and it will, unless you ban travel from Seattle), it’s going to quickly get worse and there will definitely be an impact on earnings and the business. Microsoft has told employees in the bay area as well to WFH until 3/25. We have 70 cases thus far in Washington, including 2 MSFT employees, with the death toll at 11. Granted, a lot of them are at the nursing home in Kirkland, but this virus seems much more potent than the flu.
My worry here is what happens when this becomes more widespread. Even around here, large gatherings aren’t getting cancelled. Old/vulnerable folks are still going to church and services aren’t getting cancelled. The Sounders are still playing their game on Saturday in front of the public. Personally I think this gets worse before it gets better.
shinobi, I don’t know where you live, but I figure North East. Maybe Maine, NH. Life & living is still nice out here in the West. Take care & you can avoid the hated virus. (hopefully)
We used to travel at least once or twice a year, out of state. But today you wouldn’t find me on a cruise or elsewhere. One thing I’m getting much older & it’s not easy traveling.
Even so, no way travel!!
btw. I’m a numbers guy but I can’t deny the emotional impact of this on me which I disclose willingly so you all can put my comments into context. Now, every little discomfort is having triggers a bout of anxiety and low level anxiety is just my normal psych makeup.
Another reason I’m more concerned is that I read oversea news much more than the typical Americans and because of family connection I’m more aware of the what’s going on in East Asia. Thus the move to re-balance my assets about 3-4 weeks back.
So, to me, it’s more than the mortality rate, it’s the disruption to the normal flow of life and the impact to economy that’s having me concerned. Really hope this will pass but hard logic also tells me that the disruption will continue and probably get worse in the short run.
Pursuant to ZenNuts’ post, I just finished reading an article about the lead up to the nursing home debacle in Washington. I have heard other such stories, as well, about happenings in other venues.
Basically what happens is that pivotal people, who know better, are simply ignoring well established, prudent, cautious behavior needed to avoid virus spread. People do what they want, ignore rules, and thereby spread the virus widely. This despite best efforts of Federal and state authorities to thwart such rejection of the obvious.
No question some persons need to be seriously inconvenienced in order to mitigate spread of the virus. When those persons simply refuse to accept restraints on their volition, regardless how prudent, all hell breaks loose, so does the virus, and vulnerable people die.
Exactly. Self-quarantine doesn’t work. Asking people nicely to wash their hands more frequently and for 20+ seconds, to not touch their face, and to cough into a sleeve instead of palms is asking them to change their well-established bad habits. Changing habits takes a long time.
I agree, this is the problem. My sister is having a baby, she’s due in April and my wife and I were planning a shower for her this weekend - it was supposed to be South Lake Union, which is the neighborhood Amazon has its headquarters in Seattle.
We ended up cancelling, because it was the right thing to do given the current situation and her health. However, it feels like nobody else is taking it seriously and correspondingly changing their behaviors. My wife, a civil engineer who can easily do her work remotely, works for a local city. That city is still mandating that they go to work in person despite the fact that the county is telling them not to. Restaurants are still open and operating normally. Sporting events are going on. Churches and synagogues are still holding services, even when people that were on their campuses have tested positive for the virus. This is just irresponsible.
Large private employers seem to be taking steps, but aside from that, small businesses, local city governments, and individuals seem to be operating like it’s business as usual. As this virus spreads across the US, I worry how this is going to impact smaller communities that just don’t have the resources to handle this. We definitely have them, and despite that, it’s still being bungled. That nursing home in Kirkland is exhibit A.
I feel like the proclamations that Corona is more deadly are strictly technical. Yes, .1% is 10 times more than .01%. But practically speaking, it’s still only 1 tenth of one percent. (Those arent actual numbers, it’s merely an illustration of my point).
Then add the fact that the worst case outcomes are highly targeted in specific populations, making the rate/risk even lower for a vast majority of people.
Thus, I’m basing my decisions on the likelihood of being held hostage in a particular place, should a confirmed infection occur. Like a cruise ship, where a week at sea can easily end with the ship being locked down indefinitely. But a day trip to the local amusement park presents virtually no risk of that happening. It’s also highly unlikely a passenger’s health will change enough over a couple hours-long flight, that the plane ends up quarantined. In such instances an infection could still occur, but I’m ok with the odds it’ll result in anything worse than feeling like crap for a couple days.
70 year old grandma with numerous health issues has cancelled plans to fly in for a visit. And if I were traveling to visit said grandma, I would “self-quarantine” for a couple weeks prior to the visit (including the travel to get there, which would mean driving rather than flying). But such precautions are due to the increased risks to those highly targeted segments of the population, not a general hysteria.
That is the exact perspective to take. Worth making an effort to attempt to avoid (by preventing spread) 200k-600k deaths in the US from covid over a similar time period if its handled the same way the flu is?
There is also no scientific basis to assume covid will be seasonal (and “go away” in warmer months) like the flu. That’s yet to be seen.
But there is a basis to assume a lower transmission rate in warm, open spaces simply due to less density and less shared airspace. That doesnt presume that the season has any affect on the actual virus itself.
Sounds reasonable. Possibly also YMMV to an extent. Winters don’t get cold where I am, the other 6-10 months get hot, so most time during the warmer months is spent indoors in those shared spaces. Most mass transit for non business travelers also probably occurs in the summer months. Some of that is probably visits with older family members located in different areas of the country.
Actually, there is a scientific basis. According to Wikipedia
In the United States, the incidence of colds is higher in the autumn and winter, with most infections occurring between September to April. The seasonality may be due to the start of the school year[ citation needed ] and to people spending more time indoors (thus in proximity with each other),[ citation needed ] thereby increasing the chance of transmission of the virus. Lower ambient, especially outdoor, temperatures may also be factor[4] given that rhinoviruses preferentially replicate at 32 °C (89 °F) as opposed to 37 °C (98 °F) – see following section. Variant pollens, grasses, hays and agricultural practices may be factors in the seasonality as well as the use of chemical controls of lawn, paddock and sportsfields in schools and communities. The changes in temperature, humidity and wind patterns seem to be factors. I
I was going to make the trip into a sort of vacation. Better safe than sorry. 
