Electric car investment opportunities beyond Tesla

Finance
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Hansen on renewable energy

What about renewable energy?

James Hansen: I think it’s unfortunate that so many environmentalists are just assuming that these renewables will be able to satisfy all of our requirements. Renewables, the ‘soft renewables’, are only providing between one and two percent. Hydropower provides a significant amount of electricity. But that’s limited as to how much of that we can have. The hope that sun and wind and geothermal can provide all of our energy is a nice idea, but I find it unlikely that that is possible. The environmental community is basically asking the governments to reduce their emissions and subsidizing clean energy. Well, that simply doesn’t work, we don’t get enough energy from renewables to make a difference. That then forces any government to approve expanded oil drilling, hydro fracking to get more gas, mountain top removal to get more coal… We’re not going to turn the lights out. No government, no president, no governor is going to turn out the light, there has to be energy. And if renewables are not providing it, then it’s fossil fuels.

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He’s right about climate change. Most of what is quoted is from 5-6 years ago. Solar and wind can generate enough energy and go up much faster and cheaper than nuclear energy. Nuclear R and D has not been shut off.

What do you think of Nio vehicles?

Xpeng just released a car that uses Lidar, in addition to cameras and radar.

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What’s the cost of integrating Lidar though? IIRC Musk refused to consider using Lidar since it’d be too costly to be sustainable. Maybe costs have gone down but none of these guys (NIO, Xpeng, etc) are making any money yet so it’s anyone’s guess whether that’s just a PR stunt or breakthrough in engineering.

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Tesla uses front-facing radar and 12-16 ultrasonic sensors on each car in addition to cameras. Tesla is developing more advanced radars for its cars that mimic some of the effects of lidar, so it’s clear Musk knows cameras alone are insufficient.

There is agreement across the entire car industry that autonomous vehicles require lidar, radar, and cameras together.

The cost of lidar has come down a lot, as has the cost of radar and other sensors. The cost has dropped from $75,000 per sensor to less than $1000 per sensor in ten years. Lidar can and is used for many other things as well.

[Nio and Xpeng are making money with every sale and the services they offer. I don’t understand the assertion they are not making money, nor that lidar is either a PR stunt or a breakthrough in engineering. It’s neither. It’s an existing, developing tech. Lidar has been around since the 1960s, used in meteorology, mapping, agriculture, and robots. There are a couple of production cars using lidar and most of the major manufacturers are planning to use them.]

There are a number of Lidar companies right now with deals to supply BMW, VW, GM, Ford, Toyota, Nissan, Volvo, and Audi (Audi was actually the first to produce a car with lidar).

Lidar can also be used in aircraft. Airbus is among manufacturers applying lidar technology to make flying safer. Lidar can also be used with wind turbines as it measures wind speeds further away, higher, faster, and more accurately than anything else right now.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/26/22399389/luminar-airbus-lidar-aviation-evtol-partnership

Up for a little research?

https://www.autonews.com/mobility-report/look-lidar-field

[Mobileye looks to build its own lidar to drive down AV costs]

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Xpeng and Nio car reviews:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cue9gCZcrTo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HQgAxUDYB0&t=164s

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NIO Q4 2020 Financial Report

Net loss for 2020 was $812 millions from their own financial report. How is that making money? It doesn’t mean it won’t be successful or a good stock to own for long term. After all, it took many years for Tesla to turn a profit but just saying that NIO is currently still operating at a loss.

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They are selling cars and services so some money is coming in… They have just been around a few years. Any pure EV company right now is not operating at a profit because of set-up and development costs.

Amazon operated at a loss for nine years.

NIo’s first mass market car came out in 2018.

All the big manufacturers producing EVs are also operating at a loss in those departments.

One cannot expect anything different with the start-up and development costs. They have to have factories, build a supply chain, develop a lot of high-tech parts and software and hardware, and hire and train engineers. They are investing for the future to have a competitive product, not to make an immediate profit.

One doesn’t want to have unreasonable expectations for high-tech automobile start-ups.

The company’s value is in the future, especially if you are investing.

https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/business/famous-companies-arent-profitable/

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"French auto-equipment company Valeo intends to produce 1 billion sensors for automobiles over the next five years., “four of the world’s leading automakers have already signed commercial contracts for it… "

Velodyne recently announced that it would unveil a new lidar sensor called H800 that it will look to sell for $500. Highways Today praised the H800 for its “outstanding detection” capabilities.

Ford’s European commercial-vehicle unit said that it will use the H800.

“Velabit, its 3D lidar sensor for robots, recently “was named the winner of the 2020 Innovation Award by Silicon Valley Robotics.” It has a range of 100 meters, costs only $100, and can be incorporated into drones and vehicles.”

“Innoviz agreed to sell its lidar to BMW for use in its 2021 SUV.”

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“Listed on the New York Stock Exchange, designed in Munich, Germany, innovated in Silicon Valley, and blended in China has been our model,” the company said.

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I’m sure you are aware of the Yucca Mountain waste repository. It was approved in 2002 and faced lots of problems since. Currently there is no designated place to store nuclear waste, so all the plants are storing them on-site in steel and concrete casks. The plants themselves have a useful life, so eventually this waste will have to go somewhere. It’s not as “easily handled” as you say.

I’m actually not opposed to nuclear power, as long as it’s not anywhere close to me or upwind. Federal land in the middle of nowhere and downwind sounds fine.

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from your link:

The Government Accountability Office stated that the closure was for political, not technical or safety reasons.

People like you with this attitude are the problem.

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You know that most nuclear plants have yet to pay for themselves, right? They keep extending the loans. Despite guaranteed loans, government insurance, and all kinds of subsidies, they are agitating for more tax breaks in the form of production credits. They have already received about 1000 times the subsidies that renewables have ever received, including the actual development of nuclear energy itself, 100% paid for by the government.

Anyway, this thread is about EVs so it might be best to stick to that.

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I didn’t say it is technically difficult. But it is practically difficult.

Perhaps if you or someone you love was affected by any of the many nuclear disasters like the Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, or Fukushima, or were empathetic to those affected, you too would be the problem.

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I don’t object to Philip Morris building more facilities, so perhaps I wouldn’t. And I’d wager that countless more people around the world have benefitted from what nuclear plants produce compared to what Philip Morris makes.

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Everyone has their own reasons and ethics. Don’t judge those who disagree with you, try to understand them instead.

Also smoking is a personal choice. Living next to a nuclear plant is usually not, if a new one were to be constructed nearby. Philip Morris – you’re in control of your own life. Nuclear plant – you’re not in control of your own life.

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161

Ministers are exploring the creation of a national stockpile of so-called rare earth metals amid rising fears that Britain’s efforts to adopt electric cars are at risk from a Chinese stranglehold on supplies.

It is understood that officials at the Department for Business are discussing options to protect the UK’s access to vital materials including lithium and cobalt, which are essential for batteries and part of a global commodity prices boom as expectations rise for massive demand.

The moves are at an early stage and come as fears grow that China is ruthlessly cornering the market in the metals needed for the global green revolution.

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Hmmm…

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This guy is supposed to be really good.

2021 Annual Energy Paper
MICHAEL CEMBALEST | JP MORGAN ASSET AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT

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I understand them fine. They are like the person that goes to a comedy show and laughs at all the mean jokes until one hits home and all of a sudden the comedian is a monster. If you count lives shortened by air pollution, the life-years lost from nuclear power compared to all other fossil fuel power is miniscule. If everyone with a family member affected negatively by those nuke disasters got together to protest the next nuke plant, they would be dwarfed by the number of people whose family members were affected negatively by coal power production. Just because it hits home for them doesn’t mean it’s a good argument for outlawing it near populated places. And just because I disagree with them doesn’t mean I don’t understand their position. I do. Their emotions (on that issue) take precedence over what is best for society.

There aren’t many nuclear plants, they don’t pop up overnight, and they aren’t built in secret. It’s not difficult to live away from a nuclear plant. All adults are in control of their home’s proximity to a nuclear power plant.

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Heck, there’s more radioactivity / pollution from coal than there is from nuke plants.

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