Individual Stock Discussions

I’ve just been selling out of the money monthly puts on it. Not exactly a bet that it will go up, just that it won’t go down too drastically. Netted me $600 in the last two months, assuming we stay above $155 through May 18th.

Around there. I dunno if there’s a lag time for # shares outstanding to account for buybacks. (If so, the market cap might be slightly lower?).

It’s only 7% away, doesn’t seem that unlikely. Last quarter had a 30% YoY profit increase. If you extrapolate that a few months, keeping everything else equal (P/E, etc), it would be there in about 3 months.

I would be nice to see Apple to reach it soon. But I still think Apple needs a better product than iPhone X for current customers to keep upgrading to new phones.

BTW, I switched from iPhone 8 to Samsung S9. Glad I switched to S9. Better technology and screen. So will need better technology in iPhone for me to switch back to next generation iPhone.

$203/share for $1 Trillion …it’s possible if Warren Buffett can pump it up on May 5th.

TSLA - this short fund manager has a pretty convincing rundown on all the Tesla business and finance problems.

https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/03/tesla-inc-tsla-stock-bubble-stanphyl-capital/

Basically, the whole car industry has jumped on the EV train with real prototypes and full scale production facilities so they will be rolling out all sorts of EVs in 2 years or something. Plus because they came later, they have benefits from using more recent battery tech, whereas Tesla had to make those choices years ago and got locked in on their tech specs and suppliers.

that last earnings call where Musk refused to answer the questions about the business details like cash requirements or car reservations was crazy. I hear the last Enron call was like that, where they refused fo answer questions that would uncover the real problems.

From all this, I think TSLA a pretty good short as non-time-specific shorts go, and I certainly wouldn’t be long. Still short a little.

“Dry questions. We’re going to YouTube!”

Did China’s consumption of soybeans drop by 50% too? Did the world supply magically spike to fulfill China’s non-US soybean demand? The math says whoever was buying the non-US soybeans that China is now buying, is now buying the US soybeans that China used to buy.

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You don’t seem to be grasping it.

China currently purchases three–fourths of total worldwide soybean production. Let’s say, hypothetically, that aliens transported the entire country of China off our planet and took it to theirs. Who else would purchase that three–fourths of total worldwide soybean production ? Nobody.

The U.S. is the largest producer of soybeans, and is the largest exporter of soybeans on the planet.

China WAS buying half of U.S. production, but have ceased. Argentina is buying some because of their drought, but that’s a minor percentage of the one-fourth of worldwide production.

That still leaves a very sizable hole of buyers of U.S. soybeans, which is why you see soybean farmers on the news, the financial news, and the farm/Ag news, freakin’ out.

Sure, if Aliens took China off to their own planet, worldwide consumption of soybeans would fall off a cliff. But last I checked (and I assume it’d be a pretty prominent news story), China is still here eating soybeans.

So did worldwide production of soybeans spiked 25% overnight? Or did the Chinese suddenly start eating 33% less soybeans? Because those would be what causes worldwide supply/demand to fall out of wack. And since you chose to go with the aliens-kidnapping-all-the-Chinese example instead of either one of those practical realities, it leads me to believe neither has happened.

While buyer/seller pairs may reshuffle, the same volume of soybeans continues to pass from producers to consumers.

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quit feeding the troll

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Should we start investing in spacesuit companies? 1.4Bn people in outer space will create quite a demand, no?

So give us more details about your short position. Let’s see if you are right or not.

Warren Buffett wants to invest in AMZN and GOOGL. Probably waiting for another correction before he buys $billions.

Warren Buffett is eyeing on Amazon

My average price is about $290, which is up a little or down a little depending on the day of the week.

Are you shorting TSLA by buying put options? If so, when does it expire?

Just short the stock, not options. I make $1 or lose $1 for each $1 move in the stock price. Timing is too hard on a situation like this for me to use options. When will the market have a crisis of confidence in the stock or the CEO have a nervous breakdown - who knows? His buying more stock on margin might help the optics like he did today, but if the stock starts falling in a meaningful way, the house of cards could come down quickly, both for him personally and the company’s prospects. I think the downside is potentially a lot bigger than the upside or I wouldn’t be involved at all, and this is under a 1% position for me.

Don’t get me wrong - I like the cars and I like how they really drove mass adoption of EVs into the public eye, but the current state of their finances isn’t great. You can’t lose $30k/car and try to make up for it in volume.

Also, there’s some more fundamental discussion of the company, the cars vs the competitors, etc, over here:

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/tsla-tesla-motors/1700/ (link to the end of the long thread)

The only thing that makes TESLA interesting is their home stuff. With CA requiring solar on new builds Tesla’s solar shingles and house battery can be a huge hit.

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Oil is expect to pop if the clown pulls out the Iran deal which would be good for my pocket book.

Saw your post and confirmed it on Google. Wow! No wonder TSLA went up today.

CA requires solar on new home