Thinking there’s a 50% chance of bottoming, so I’ll try a little nibble.
Picked up
300 HTZ btween 6.25 and 6.50
300 CAR between 14.56 and 14.64
300 BAC between 21.61 and 21…69
300 HAL between 6.47 and 6.41
I had hoped for some HAL LEAP calls, but they were a little too rich for me.
I put the chance of bottoming right now at 25%.to 35%.
I tend to see more supply issue than most but I also know this tend to bias me toward the more negative side. I would say demand side still way to go yet. China still isn’t coming out the lock just yet and it looks they got weeks to go.
On these big up days, puts are getting pretty cheap, relatively. 
Even a completely lost 6 months only represents 10% of a company’s earnings over the next 5 years. Business isnt going to instantly bounce back to previous levels, but this isnt the new norm, either - 3-5 year earning projections remain mostly unaffected. I think we did hit what will eventually be proven to be the bottom (or pretty close), but we will re-visit those depths again (multiple times?) before we’re finally past it for good.
What are the good FMCG/Consumer staples stocks to look into? Couple of them i am looking into, their stock price is very stubborn even during sell off.
That assumes a business can survive for 6 months with a complete loss. Or even 1 month:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/business/cheesecake-factory-april-rent-coronavirus/index.html
And I don’t even think they’re fully closed, they’re doing takeout in places that closed restaurants. Commercial tenants not paying rent is gonna have some waterfall effects. And if a business is operating on such thin margins that they can’t survive a month without all of their expected revenue, that business will have a hard time paying off their debts even if they survive this somehow.
IMO it’s gonna get much worse for many businesses and the recovery will not be quick for them.
COST maybe?
KMB has been my second best long term purchase ever. I glance at their financials and outlook once a year, at most. I’ve had them for over 30 years. Disclaimer: I own KMB - my opinion is not even worth what you paid for it (approx 10 seconds of your life)
You are correct that businesses need to first survive before they can rebound. But there’s a good chance they’re taking advantage of the situation to conserve cash, to better ensure their survival. 300 locations threatening to not pay rent is a good way to get some concessions.
I’ve also been hearing of landlords making efforts to help some tenants. Publix is waiving rent for 2 months to their tenants.
https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/03/29/publix-is-letting-shopping-center-tenants-go-two-months-without-rent
Is HAL follows oil prices? Is it a generic engineering company?
Influenced by, not necessarily follows. Not what I would call generic as they focus on oil field services.
OTOH, some landlords either aren’t, or aren’t able to waive rents …
Ok, this is more of a trading question. For stock it’s easy to put in a limit order, however, for most 401k plan only selected fund are available so if one put in an order, how’s the transaction price determined?
Consider this scenario. I see a huge down day and at the end of the trading day, I put in an order to buy shares of a index fund. Will the transaction price reflect today’s fund price or tomorrow’s price which take into account today’s market activities?
It is fascinating to me to watch the media coverage on this.
People act like landlords are just made of money and that they don’t have their own bills to pay - property taxes, mortgages, maintenance staff, etc. Many of them are even more at risk than their tenants - they could be losing an entire strip mall’s worth of rent if it’s full of non-essential businesses or restaurants that are closed.
In many ways, they’re more at risk than their tenants given their exposure to a precarious real estate market. If they can show their tenants flexibility, that’s great, but this assumption that landlords must be heartless if they can’t is just crazy to me.
If you get the order in before the market closes, you’ll purchase at the next closing price which will be that day’s closing price (reflecting the big drop in your example). If you get the order in after the market close, then you’ll purchase at the next day’s closing price. I always try to put in fund orders in the last 5-10 minutes before market close to get a better idea of what level I’m buying, but even within the last few minutes there can be big swings.
Is it better to open joint trading account with Spouse or Individual accounts? Do we need a joint checking account to link with joint trading account?
Thanks
I always thought it was purchased at the next day’s opening price not the next day’s closing price. I’m not a regular trader and rebalance/contribute mostly on an annual basis but good to know. Thanks!
In the case of IRA’s they obviously need to be separate for tax contribution purposes. For regular trading accoints I’ve had them seperate as well, though you could make them joint if you wish. If it is a joint trading account you can contribute from either a separate or joint checking account since both names are on the trading account.
I’d assume you can also contribute from an individual trading account owned by you from your spouse’s named checking too, though YMM based on the trading account or the checking account you’re contributing from.
I’ve generally had no problem linking and doing ACH from my or my spuses account to other banks as long as you enter the ACH linking requirements. The only one I ran into trouble with was Ally joint account where I had to create a separate login for my wife to transfer to her accounts in her name. Other banks haven’t had this problem. Usually the recipient of the funds is not so picky.
Not sure what you mean by “for tax contribution purposes”. They need to be separate because of the “I” in “IRA”. They can’t be joint.