Inflation/stagflation Thread

One of the economists who influenced Ronald Wilson Reagan … much to our benefit.

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Sure it’s a terrible idea, but it’s better than price controls if the government is trying to “do something” about inflation hurting average people. Price controls just means you can’t buy things due to Russian style shortages and the goods go elsewhere.

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Better is a relative term. It can be the better move, while still not being a good move.

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Hope is not a strategy.

OK, so prices remain where they are while only price increases moderate!!

God save our Republic. :frowning_face:

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It was a slow day in the markets yesterday and I actually listened to Yellen’s testimony and Q&A before Congress. She was much worse than I had expected, or maybe that’s just because as a government employee she’s expected to largely be supportive of many of Biden’s really bad policies (destroying energy independence for “green” at high cost and too fast, affordable housing, cartel like international tax schemes to the detriment of US business and workers, etc).

Meanwhile, in other things I don’t believe, here were some charts suggesting inflation might be coming down (or slightly less bad than it was recently).

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And this will be the kind of “data” that the Fed uses to back off of interest rate increases. It’s coming much sooner than I expected, though. I was expecting at least a year before I had to lock in long term rates.

@shinobi’s 3 year add-on, bump-up, CD is starting to look a lot more interesting to me.

(written in a state of disbelief)

Guys way things are unfolding we are on the way to $10 NYMEX natural gas. I can scarcely believe my eyes. Must be a mistake, but of course it’s not.

I do not know how people will heat their homes this coming winter. And the price of electricity is gonna skyrocket!! Bear in mind:

At present natural gas consumers are benefitting from fixed price purchase contracts negotiated in the past. Such contracts typically priced natural gas in the vicinity of $4, plus or minus. However, importantly:

Those contracts do not go on forever. They expire. And when natural gas is repriced thereafter it’s gonna be a SHOCK to NG consumers of whatever sort.

Guys, it’s like a price increase time bomb just sitting there, ticking, waiting to go off.

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More from Biden / Yellen. Time to give up our Chinese trade tariffs in order to try to cut costs on midterm voters, nevermind about them deserving them for unfair trade.

  • YELLEN SAYS CHINA GUILTY OF UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES BUT SOME TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS DO NOT SERVE U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS
  • Yellen Says China Duties Weren’t Made to Serve Strategic Interests
  • YELLEN SAYS BIDEN ADMINISTRATION LOOKING TO RECONFIGURE TARIFFS IN A WAY THAT WOULD BE MORE STRATEGIC
  • YELLEN: SOME TARIFF REDUCTIONS MAY BE WARRANTED

Guess the Big Guy is getting another 10% from China. These tariffs are even bigger than the Ukraine giveaway.

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Blame Putin

*Blinken Says Global Food Insecurity Reaching ‘Historic’ Levels
BLINKEN: 200 MILLION PEOPLE WORLDWIDE ‘SEVERELY FOOD INSECURE’

He wants to sell Russian and Ukrainian wheat to the hungry world, but wants sanctions removed. I bet we let 'em starve.

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Sorry about your nat gas. Export facility blew up and domestic prices turned down today.

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She continued, "You know, this is, in large part, caused by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s aggression. You know, since Putin move troops to the border of Ukraine, gas prices have gone up over $1.40 a gallon, and the President is asking for Congress and others for potential ideas.

Well, the invasion didn’t do crap, it was the sanctions we imposed after the invasion that has spiked the prices. The only idea that’ll have any immediate impact is to join China and resume buying [now cheap] Russian oil. Boosting domestic production would help, but there will be a lag before seeing any significant effect.

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Sure there is, we can blow up a LNG export terminal so we can’t sell our gas to Europe at higher prices and have to sell it domestically.

https://divestor.com/?p=11144

Freeport LNG handles about 2 BCf/d of volume, which is about 1/6ths of the USA’s current export capacity.

I mean, they didn’t do it on purpose, but it shows how much of pricing is driven by demand.

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Guess who definitely couldn’t have seen it coming or done anything? Just after Biden’s inauguration, turns out that infant formula whistleblower reported Abbott’s problems to OSHA, that’s Feb 2021. I know he was busy governing by royal decree back then, too busy for practical stuff aside from putting people with trendy skin colors and sexual quirks in positions of power in excess of their experience. That’ll show you America!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/abbott-received-former-employees-warnings-on-baby-formula-plant-earlier-than-previously-known-11654716316

Backup Link

  • Abbott and FDA Were Alerted to Alleged Safety Problems at Baby-Formula Plant in February 2021, Sources Say
  • Abbott Received Former Employee’s Warnings on Baby-Formula Plant Earlier Than Previously Known
  • Abbott Investigated and Can’t Confirm Allegations, Company Says
  • February 2021 Whistleblower Complaint Included Allegations of Safety Issues at Sturgis Plant, Sources Say
  • Abbott and FDA Were Alerted to Alleged Safety Problems at Baby-Formula Plant in February 2021, Sources Say – WSJ

“Frankly the inspection results were shocking,” FDA Commissioner Robert Califf said during the congressional hearing last month, comparing the conditions in Abbott’s plant in the most recent inspection to a muddy kitchen. “We had no confidence in the integrity of the Abbott quality program at this facility.”

And speaking of food insecurity,

Teamsters Tell US Foods Work Stoppages Are Imminent

And the LA port union negotiations are less than a month away, so labor may flex their power and delay things to get even more pay and screw up the supply chains even more. Their contact expires at the end of June, and we don’t have anything new in place yet.

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Next batch of inflation numbers are going to be bad. So bad the Biden admin is already warning us that they’ll be bad. We get May CPI this Friday morning , 6/10.

ON CONSUMER PRICES, EXPECTING ELEVATED PRICES: WHITE HOUSE

WHITE HOUSE SAYS EXPECTS INFLATION NUMBERS TO BE RELEASED AT END OF WEEK TO BE ELEVATED

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I think I said nearly on day one that the only way increasing domestic production can help with high global prices is to withdraw from the global market and keep all our domestic oil/gas domestic. I guess we’ve now seen a little evidence of how true that is.

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Any chance Biden does as Reagan did with the Air Traffic Controllers?

I know it’s just a joke to even suggest that as an option, since we all know Biden will be right there picketing with them while at the same time insisting the food shortages were entirely unpredictable and completely out of his control. Everyone is entitled to get everything they want, with " " footing the bill for it all.

Yes, that is an Underpants Gnomes call-back.

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Yes, but he’ll be picketing for his 10%. :smile:

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Global food inflation

https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/inflation-and-global-food-prices

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More Yellen bashing. Seriously?

  • YELLEN SAYS WOULD NOT CHANGE POLICIES IF SHE COULD GO BACK IN TIME - NY TIMES
    EVENT
  • Yellen Says ‘I Wouldn’t Do It Differently’ on Economic Policy

More from her today

  • YELLEN SAYS INFLATION IS CLEARLY A MAJOR PROBLEM, IT’S WHAT I’M MOST FOCUSED ON

  • YELLEN: AMAZING HOW PESSIMISTIC HOUSEHOLDS ARE GIVEN JOB GAINS

  • YELLEN SAYS IT’S UNLIKELY THAT GASOLINE PRICES WILL FALL ANYTIME SOON

  • YELLEN: OIL PRICES COULD GO FURTHER

  • YELLEN SAYS THERE’S NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT A RECESSION IS IN THE WORKS

  • Yellen Answering Question on Role of Corporate Greed in Prices

  • Yellen: `Demand and Supply Is Largely Driving Inflation’

  • Yellen Says She Does Agree With Strong Antitrust Stance

Never let it be said there’s nothing I agree with her on however

  • Yellen Says She Wouldn’t Recommend Crypto for Most Retirement Savers
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Specifically on the CPI tomorrow

  • on CPI Inflation: White House Official telling me they expect headline inflation will be elevated because gas prices were 8.5% were greater in April than May. The White House Official says that will seep into CORE inflation through airline tickets because of the price of jet fuel

  • on recessions: White House Official tells me the gains in the labor market & demand for goods don’t indicate we are in a recession. They said it is “very unlikely”. Official says the administration is in a “good spot to transition” the economy to stable growth

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