If true, this is alarming:
Future numbers coming out of BLS and other bureaus will be suspect.
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I find these very alarming already. These revisions from +291k down to +33k (basically 90% off) highlight the uselessness of the initial monthly job numbers. Is it unfair to ask for slightly less inaccurate predictions? In light of this though, the July numbers may as well have been the result of monkeys throwing darts. Iâm not necessarily putting it all on the BLS Chief but still, who should be accountable for getting data this way off consistently? At the end of the day, the buck stops with her so, Iâm not sure Iâd want to keep her at the helm.
Timing is also abysmal to be honest. Itâs bad enough to have a 2 month lag for believable job numbers (one of the two things the Fed monitors), but missing the correct numbers until the next meeting in two month is really an unforced error.
I find the fact they they only report âseasonally adjustedâ numbers makes every report suspect.
Why not just report the actual numbers? Instead, let expectations be âadjustedâ to account for seasonality factors.
There have been significant and increasing problems with the BLS numbers over the last couple years, including a record revision of over 800,000 jobs in 2023, 2024. I donât follow the statistics or the process closely enough to know why this was the case, but whatever theyâre doing over there, they certainly seem to be doing it worse than they used to be, or else something has changed fundamentally about the economics or the data that theyâre using. In which case that process might need to be improved but I havenât heard any discussion of that happening.
This was from last year -
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BLS always publishes both adjusted and non-adjusted numbers (see link below for non-adjusted numbers)
BLS Employment data (with revisions) since 1979
Without seasonal adjustments, youâd need more context to interpret the data. For example, non-adjusted July 2025 job numbers was -1.06 million less jobs. Personally, I cannot quickly estimate whether thatâs more or less than usual. So the seasonal adjustments account for that context (including weather, holidays, school, etc.).
Now, I agree that for transparency, they could certainly do a better job at justifying these seasonal adjustments.
Nate Silver on bls data
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The July CPI report is out:
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And the wholesale prices came hotter than expected:
I guess consumers will be paying those tariffs after all, not Canada, Japan, and the rest.
Someone at BLS about to get fired. Again. 
The firings will continue until the numbers âimprove.â
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Usually the CPI moves slower than the PPI so weâll see if that holds true for wholesale inflation caused by tariffs too.
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Powell signals rate cuts comingâŚ
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The Fed is the next battlefield:
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More importantly, itâs a pretty bad look for a financial regulator, claiming on two mortgage applications each will be your primary residence (needed for preferential mortgages rates)⌠when theyâre done within two weeks of each other and for properties in different states.
I donât know how common that type of lie is, but it seems to meet the mortgage fraud rules. The president can remove Fed officials âfor causeâ but not at his whim. She says she wonât resign, but this sounds like good enough to me, and she was referred to the DOJ for prosecution.
Given she was a token diversify hire anyway under Biden, ala Kalama and Ketanji, the Fed would probably be better off without her. Letâs have more studies of economic growth and inflation on the resume and less race studies -
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âDiscrimination in Lending? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program,â with Rachel M.B. Atkins and Robert Seamans, February 2021.
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âThe Antebellum Roots of Distinctively Black Names,â with Trevon D. Logan and John Parman, NBER Working Paper No. 28101 November 2020.
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âThe Green Books and the Geography of Segregation in Public Accommodations,â with Maggie E.C. Jones, Trevon D. Logan, and David Rose, NBER Working Paper No. 26819 (March 2020).
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âThe Idea Gap in Pink and Black,â with Chaleampong Kongchareon, NBER Working Paper No. 16331, September 2010, revise and resubmit.
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And it seems more clear-cut than what Trump was convicted of.
Trump âfiredâ her, weâll see if she leaves loudly or quietly. As for her multiple mortgages, 
The good news is Cook will soon be able to refinance at a much lower rate.
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I believe there are other cases of mortgage irregularities among the political elite. I agree this is a form of corruption, albeit me fears only certain politicians / party members will be investigated and, potentially, prosecuted. Should she be a Trump appointee, or favoring Trumpâs economic policies at the Fed, sheâd still be there.
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Huh? As evidenced by the impact of the Fedâs Dec 18th 2024 rate cut on 30-yr fixed rateâŚ. oh wait
Besides she obtained her mortgages in June and July of 2021 when prevailing rate for 30-yr fixed was less than half what it is now. Iâd think the last thing sheâd want to do is refi those 3% APY mortgagesâŚ
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Digression on topic of inflation but that goes without saying for every administration though. DoJ is now basically the weaponized political tool of choice for POTUS these days, ahead of ensuring laws voted on by Congress and in the Constitution are upheld. Call it selective enforcement of laws POTUS likes âŚ.
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