Inflation/stagflation Thread

Fed keeps rates unchanged but decision is contentious…

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Looking at the March PCE inflation data (PCE +0.7% at 3.5% and core PCE +0.3% at 3.2%), some of the objections sounded like political maneuvering to me. Not much Fed can do to fix one without messing up further the other. Fed is still stuck between comatose job market (lowest hiring rate since 1969 and unemployment at 4.3%), mediocre GDP (2%) and inflation above 3% and rising due to the Trump war oil crisis.

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By objections do you mean the FOMC dissents? There were 4. One voted in favor of a quarter cut, the other three wanted to remove the messaging about “additional adjustments” to the rate, which sounds like they do not expect any further cuts and do not want anyone else to expect them either.

I meant the 3 dissents against the language of additional adjustments yes. It felt like grandstanding to me. In another era, they would have simply not dissented considering how minor the objection they had on the decision.

Certainly not grandstanding against the FOMC consensus on the rate. Do you mean grandstanding in opposition to the president’s wishes to lower the rates? It’s certainly not presented this way in any of the news articles, which lead with “the most dissents ever” before going into the little details.

It seems to me like positioning themselves in the opposition to rate cuts as a new Chairman appointed by Trump takes charge.

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Even taking into account energy costs due to the Trump war, core CPI at +0.4% (2.8% 12-month) seems to be drifting further from the Fed target.

I guess the BLS is at it again releasing “rigged” numbers to make the administration look bad ahead of the midterms. :roll_eyes: Which I guess explains why Warsh is suddenly talking about moving the goal posts with trimmed-mean CPE fudging…

I hope the Treasury doesn’t extend this inflation data rigging to the CPI-U adjustment on my TIPS.

April Producer Price Index not looking too auspicious for near-term inflation expectations either …

Although Trump just told the WSJ that it was temporary … or did he mean it is transitory? LOL

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Fed Chair nominee confirmed by the Senate…

Rate cuts might have to wait…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/05/14/warsh-be-confirmed-fed-chair-trump-allies-warn-rate-cuts/