Inflation/stagflation Thread

S’bout time. Better late than never.

Now how about those planes!!

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They’re being loaded with pallets of cash to bring to Iran so that

  1. Iranians will agree to start hiding their nuclear development.
  2. Putin will never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people.

Sorry. It’s going to be a little longer before that gets old, but not as old as …

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This is more symbolic than effective. Opening up oil leases and pipelines would be more effective.

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Forcing Russia to sell their oil at a low net price would be just as effective, and actually benefit the rest of the world…

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image

https://www.axios.com/mcconnell-ukraine-aid-package-bb5097d6-1748-46c2-b91a-5e4c6fab2582.html

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Sen. Warren working on windfall profits tax for Big Oil

Senator Elizabeth Warren said via Twitter: “Big Oil’s first priority is to maximize profits. It’s also their second priority, third priority, and on and on. We can’t let them use Putin’s invasion as an excuse to pad their bottom line with war-fueled profits. So I’m working with Senate Democrats on a windfall profits tax.”

I’m sure that’ll encourage extra production. Why pump it out now when we can wait a few years and take those profits under a more favorable administration?

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This is typical for Warren, a nutcase who fortunately is not in a position where she can both assist Putin and harm America and Ukraine simultaneously.

The problem is as follows:

A small but significant number of Democrats, certainly not all, occupy the same political space as Warren. To the extent Biden is cowed by this group, America and our allies are seriously damaged. And that extent is FAR too great.

Warren represents a state which currently imports energy from abroad in preference to buying American. Little good can be expected from people with that sort of “hate America” mindset. Nor should they anticipate any salve when things change and they suddenly need energy help from us.

And that same thinking applies now to Biden as he goes hat in hand to the Saudis, and to the North American energy complex as well, pleading for help right after having attacked and spat on all of us commencing day one of his regime.

Karma is a bitch, ain’t it Joe.

As for Warren, she is so stupid that even now she continues to spit. And you cannot fix stupid.

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Housing market stagflation

from Bloomberg dated 8 March:

If you want to know what stagflation looks like, check out the housing market. The conditions that existed during the 1970’s — high inflation and stagnant output — are happening already in this segment of the U.S. economy, illustrating the challenges ahead for consumers, industry players and the Federal Reserve.

Though homebuilders continue to expand construction in response to elevated demand, the number of homes actually being completed has been stagnant because of persistent supply chain problems. This stagflation is a headache for homebuilders and homebuyers, but it’s a benefit for many existing homeowners — and therein lies the Fed’s predicament as it seeks to lower inflation.

U.S. home prices rose by 18.8% in 2021, according to the Case-Shiller U.S. National home Price Index. Yet real residential fixed investment fell in the second and third quarter of 2021 and was essentially unchanged in the fourth quarter. Homebuilders are trying to build more homes, but the housing supply chain still hasn’t been able to increase production to match. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, completions of single-family homes have been unchanged since August 2018.

More here:

Stagflation Is Already Here in the Housing Market

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I must say I’m still a bit surprised. It definitely sets a new low in how stupid they think we are if they hope we’ll buy this grandstanding BS.

Like xerty linked before, the correlation between crude oil prices and gasoline prices is extremely high. It shouldn’t take a bleeping billion to figure that out. If there was price gauging (by others than OPEC that is), it’d show right away in R2 dropping in recent times (spoiler: it has not).

With posturing like this, Dems are just trying to hide their incompetence at getting anything of substance done about inflation (granted not all their fault considering global trends). But this is just pushing for creative ways to waste taxpayer money on pointless pursuits.

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Feb CPI

  • US Feb Consumer Prices 0.8% [that’s nearly 10% annualized]
  • US Feb Consumer Prices Increase 7.9% From Year Earlier
  • Core CPI Up 6.4% Over Year
  • US Feb CPI Ex-Food & Energy 0.5%
  • US Feb CPI Energy Prices 3.5%; Food Prices 1%
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WOW!!

Those I bonds continue to look great vis a vis the May first rate reset.

Only game in town.

But very sad situation overall. Many people are really hurting.

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Psaki October 2021 - Lest we forget:

Psaki Claims Inflation a ‘Good Thing’ for Americans

According to President Joe Biden‘s press secretary, Jen Psaki, inflation is good for America and Americans in general.

Psaki told CNN on Friday that inflation is a “good thing” because it indicates that “consumers” are buying more things.

When pressed on the subject of extreme inflation caused largely by the Biden administration, Psaki first deflected to blame Trump, then circled back to claim that higher gas and food prices under the current administration were a sign of improvement rather than mismanagement.

Using her economic expertise to predict the future, Psaki, then suggested that we need not worry about good inflation for much longer.

People should know that inflation is going to come down next year. Economists have said that,” Psaki claimed. “They are all projecting that. But we’re working to attack these cost issues that are impacting the American people every single day.”

God help us all. :astonished:

Psaki opines on inflation

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Is this the good kind?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/flour-rationing-in-lebanon-grain-hoarding-in-hungary-how-the-ukraine-war-is-lurching-the-globe-toward-a-new-food-crisis/ar-AAUURhT

Together, Ukraine and Russia account for nearly 30 percent of wheat, 17 percent of corn and over half of sunflower seed oil exports. The conflict-inducted bottlenecks at Black Sea ports — where cargo vessels have been struck by Russian rockets — and other complications of war have slammed Ukrainian exports. Boycotts of Russian ports by shipping companies and the knock-on effects of sanctions have also disrupted the flow of foods and feeds from Russia — creating problems that could grow as the Kremlin now threatens to impose export controls on some food commodities.

As bad as it is — a key wheat future surged 70 percent over the past month — the situation is poised to get worse. A new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) due out Friday estimates food and feed prices could surge 7 percent to 22 percent above already elevated levels due to the war.

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This just goes to show that all the objections to Trump are about polish. Democrats spew just as much nonsensical rhetoric as he ever did, they just deliver it with a more polished oratory.

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it should be noted that the Russians’ invasion of Ukraine started on February 24 so the CPI numbers only reflect four days of war. The March numbers will be a doozy.

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Please give an example of President Trump’s “nonsensical rhetoric.”

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We have to tax Big Oil to give the money to voters so they can still afford gas by midterms in spite of our war sanctions for a place 99% of voters can’t find on a map. Good thing we played up RussiaGate for the last 5 years so people will go along with these sanctions despite hurting Americans at the pump and the grocery store.

Our indigenous senator wants a Windfall Profits Tax

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/warren-targets-oil-companies-with-plan-to-tax-windfall-profits

Backup link

From the mind of Ro Khanna, who brought us such gems as a $1T financial transaction tax on stock trades to give everyone an earned income tax credit, free college, free Medicare, and workers getting 1/3 the seats on companies’ boards (thankfully none of which made it into law), we get this House bill

Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax

He wants to tax 50% of the value of any barrel sold in excess of the average price of oil from 2015-2019, which to my eye on this chart looks to be about $60/barrel. Currently oil is about $110, so clearly he will need to tax that extra $50/barrel surplus as a “windfall” and charge $25. So if our oil companies import oil and pay the market price of $110, they’re going to lose at least $25/barrel selling it domestically because it’s an excise tax on the barrel imported (or pumped) not actually related to profits.

So after taking something like 200-300% of the oil companies’ profits and expropriating them, he will give all this out as a “gas rebate” to everyone making less than $75k AGI single. Looks like a great way to have no domestic oil at all since it would be wildly unprofitable to provide any. I’m reminded of this one -

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The Democrats still make such claims on an almost daily basis. That wasnt the point; the point was that the primary difference between what they claim he says and what they say themselves is that they’re more polished at public speaking.

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Ignoring the obvious implications that you pointed out, my imagination immediately went to tubs of ice cream, and how oil producers will just shrink the size of a standard barrel so that the volume-adjusted price for a “barrel” stays under $60. The market will no longer fluctuate in price, everyone will buy $60 barrels and the market will be biding on how much oil is included in each barrel.

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