Inflation/stagflation Thread

Finance
1005

Do you honestly think so? How many people do you know who are better citizens simply because they pay federal income tax? I would guess that most people hate paying it and want lower taxes. Very few actually care about the details of where the money goes. This is easily demonstrated when conservatives talk about relatively small programs (foreign aid was a big subject a few elections ago) as if eliminating them would make any difference in the federal budget.

1006

Define much - and not in weasel terms - use specific numbers, please.
Expected response: excuse as to why it can’t be done.

Well, you’ve got a billion here, a billion there, and before you know it, you’re talking about real money. I can’t remember to whom I should attribute this, but it must have been a politician, or some other comedian.

And here is where I’m most shocked. Let’s put our thinking caps on and figger this out … and I’ll try to use parlance to which you may be accustomed.

Land owner Robber Baron, needs cukes non-meat products picked and loaded packaged to send to the equally dastardly pickling factory sweatshop owner Capitalist Pig.

The Robber Baron and Capitalist Pig each offer minimum non-livable wage starting salaries to their employees slaves. The slaves quit because they’ve been told they’re slaves … despite the fact that 0% of them are earning the non-livable wage after 6 weeks of slavery.

Are we on the same page? Both the Robber Baron and Capitalist Pig have lost their slaves, and they’ve got loans, taxes, utilities, insurance, suppliers, and other employees slaves to pay. They have no way to keep their sweatshops/land.

What can they do? Let’s pull our thinking caps on a little more firmly and think:

  1. They can hire illegals hard working non-child smuggling, non-drug smuggling, non-murdering, non-raping angels at the same minimum unlivable wage.

  2. They can increase their wages to a point that the previous liberal guilt-trippers enlightened intellectuals of conscience can no longer call the slaves slaves. They will then have to make up another problem rescue another group who has not yet self-identified as helpless victims in order to make themselves feel important/good continue making their way to heaven rescuing humanity from hard workers willing to takes risks evil Conservatives.

Lets look at the outcomes, in reverse order, well … because it looks better that way …

  1. The previous slaves are now proud, card-carrying members of the Proletariat. They now have the opportunity to unionize. Their new, soon-to-be-non-livable wages are helping to increase inflation. They can temporarily afford to pay union dues and be part of the Liberal perpetual victim American dream. They are Liberal Icons. of victimhood

and 1. Uh, oh!!
The hard working non-child smuggling, non-drug smuggling, non-murdering, non-raping angels are taking jobs from the slaves. This is wrong obviously the fault of the slave owners for not willing to go bankrupt by hiring the non-illegals and legals at twice the market rate to make themselves idiots feel better.

Okay, after reviewing my physical (and fiscal) results, I’m again enlightened … not like a bug in a zapper, but more akin to a distiller in a vat. :rofl:

3 Likes
1007

I have no idea what you are saying. You yourself wrote “we should not continue to import people who cannot pay income tax”, then described that the land owners can’t afford in-country people and shouldn’t try to pay them more. Huh?

1008

Can I get me a huntin license here?

1009

No. You, and your ilk, don’t. Sadly, that explains way too much. Please explain the latter portion of your statement, including quotes, please.

Feel free to also

As well, a nice dollar figure to your nebulous amount would be appreciated/unexpected.

1 Like
1010

Yes

“Simply” paying income tax does not make one a better citizen. I worked as a police officer in a precinct that included public housing and the mayor’s neighborhood. I would never say that the reason I got way more 911 calls from the projects than the mayor’s neighborhood was “simply” because people in the mayor’s neighborhood pay taxes. Your specific question here is a strawman.

Yes. Everyone hates paying taxes. But federal income taxes are progressive. People with less income pay less. That doesn’t mean a bunch of people working full time making significantly more than minimum wage shouldn’t pay anything at all.

4 Likes
1011

Today’s in “Biden’s fixes for Bidenflation”:

Hating on US energy

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/biden-ally-floats-21-surtax-on-oil-profits-to-blunt-inflation

  • Oil Refiners Are to Blame for High Prices: Ramamurti
  • ON OIL, BIDEN NOT RULING OUT AN EXCESS PROFIT TAX: RAMAMURTI
  • BIDEN ALLY FLOATS 21% SURTAX ON OIL PROFITS TO BLUNT INFLATION
  • Biden Admin Announces Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release Sales
  • DOE OFFERS 45M BBLS OF RESERVE CRUDE IN NEW SALE TENDER

Playing nice with Russia

  • Biden Says Working on a Plan to Get Grain Out of Ukraine by Rail
  • U.S. EXTENDS GENERAL LICENSE AUTHORIZING CERTAIN TRANSACTIONS RELATED TO ENERGY WITH SEVERAL RUSSIAN ENTITIES UNTIL DEC. 5
  • Oil Prices Jump After OPEC Cuts Oil Supply Forecasts, Says OPEC Output Fell in May
  • U.S. TREASURY’S ADEYEMO SAYS INTRODUCING PRICE CAP ON RUSSIAN OIL IS OPTION TO REDUCE MOSCOW’S OIL REVENUE

Playing nice with China, blame the other guy

  • WHITE HOUSE SAYS DISCUSSING SOME ‘IRRESPONSIBLE’ TARIFFS IMPOSED BY FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP

Hate on Billionaires

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1536763927865991169?cxt=HHwWgoCxgc-p19MqAAAA

1 Like
1012

May PPI is out

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1013

Meanwhile, from the other side of the aisle,

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gop-offers-tax-trade-policies-aimed-at-combating-inflation-11655222400

  • index tax code to inflation, including capital gains, encourage savings
  • rescinding unused federal spending, reducing regulation and negotiating new trade agreements

“The Biden administration has offered no real solutions—just more Washington spending and higher taxes on Main Street businesses that will fuel higher prices in the future"

Mr. Grassley would also exempt interest income from taxation—up to $300 for individuals and $600 for married couples. He would expand a tax credit for middle-income households to save for retirement and more than double the income levels at which capital gains and dividend income starts being taxed so that the 0% tax bracket for that investment income would end when income reaches $89,075 for individuals and $178,150 for married couples.

“When people are encouraged to save, the more you save, it reduces demand. That helps inflation,” he said. “Hopefully the November elections make a big change and we’re able to move on these things in the next Congress.” Mr. Grassley would pay for those changes by extending—without indexing for inflation—the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction.

3 Likes
1014

Funny part is, the only thing such a tax will accomplish is raising funds to pay for more social programs.

1 Like
1015

My question was derived from what you wrote. You implied that paying taxes is akin to investing in the country, and “the more people are invested in the country, the better citizens they’ll be.” What did I misunderstand that made you think that my question was a strawman?

1016

You added the word “simply.” Paying income taxes is one aspect of investing in the country. I never said that “simply” paying taxes makes one invested. It’s just one piece of the puzzle.

2 Likes
1017

That’s not surprising. I just re-read it and it makes perfect sense. However, for people like you …

If employers didn’t have illegals to take low-wage jobs, the employer would have to raise the wages to attract legal workers.

I realize that’s a long sentence, but I have confidence in you. :wink:

1018

I wonder if the “big guy” pays taxes on his 10% kickback?

1019

Yes, that’s obvious, but you made it sound like a bad thing, which is why I didn’t get what you were trying to say.

1020

Not my fault, gas price edition.

  • BIDEN CHIDES OIL EXECUTIVES FOR CUTTING REFINING CAPACITY, SAYS THEY ARE DRIVING UP CONSUMER COSTS IN LETTER SEEN BY REUTERS

  • BIDEN CALLS ON OIL REFINERS TO DELIVER ‘CONCRETE IDEAS’ TO INCREASE SUPPLY OF GASOLINE AND EXPLANATION FOR REFINERY CAPACITY ISSUES

  • U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY SAYS “WE’RE ON A WAR FOOTING” WITH HIGH PRICE OF OIL, GAS PRECIPITATING INFLATION AROUND THE WORLD -MSNBC INTERVIEW

  • U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY GRANHOLM SAYS WE’RE NOT AGAINST OIL PROFIT BUT 225% INCREASE IN PROFIT OVER A YEAR MEANS SOMETHING IS WRONG

  • GRANHOLM SAYS WE KNOW PEOPLE ARE HURTING, HAVE TO INCREASE GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY

  • GRANHOLM: NO TOOL IS OFF THE TABLE WHEN ADDRESSING GAS PRICE

Just to point out how wholely stupid Biden’s comments are about refining capacity, check out the utilization rates in the major regions of the US -

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PNP_WIUP_A_(NA)_YUP_PCT_W.htm

Nearly everywhere is already 90-95%, which is pretty much maxxed out since you’re expected to have some downtime for occasional maintenance. East Coast for his voting base, PADD 1, is at 99.2% so surely they just need to do another 0.8% more refining and that’ll get gas prices down by half to Trump levels, right?

On the other side of the pond, they’re in trouble too. Called an emergency meeting of the EU Central Bank.

  • ECB’S CENTENO SAYS WE EXPECTED SOME INFLATION BUT NOT SO MUCH INFLATION, WE ALL HAVE TO ADAPT POLICIES
5 Likes
1021

an unsuccessful series of rate hikes could fail to reduce prices while dramatically slowing the economy, experts said. Such an outcome would bring about stagflation — a mix of the words stagnation and inflation — which describes an economy with low growth and high prices. In other words, the high prices remain, but the lifeline of elevated income disappears.

.

Investor fears of stagflation are at the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, while global growth optimism has sunk to a record low, according to Bank of America Corp.’s monthly fund manager survey.

1 Like
1022

The ballyhooed ECB announcement was a nothing burger. The stock market thinks the Fed will act more forcefully but I have my doubts.

Edit. By The way, the weak retail figures were due to people being unable to buy cars because they’re not available

D espite very weak US Retail Sales figures for May (inflation-adjusted sales were down 1.3% MoM), EUR/USD has been under pressure in recent trade and is currently probing session lows in the 1.0400 area. Traders are attributing recent downside in the pair to euro weakness after the ECB announced that it would apply flexibility to its PEPP reinvestments to ease “fragmentation” in the transmission of monetary policy (essentially, to close yield spreads between Eurozone nations).

S eemingly, markets do not think the ECB went far enough in addressing fragmentation risk (German/Italian yield spreads jumped, for example) and this seems to have hurt the euro. With these two big catalysts (US data and the ECB) out of the way, attention has turned to the upcoming Fed meeting at 1800GMT and follow-up press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

2 Likes
1023

This was a fairly short and excellent video by Einhorn, big time hedge fund manager. Macro commentary on US debt, Fed, inflation, and historical perspective. Well worth a quick watch. Lots of good joke slides too, so it’s entertaining as well.

1024

You dont think that a chunk of our current inflation problems is attributable to the vast number of minimum wage workers who have gotten raises to $15-20/hr over the past couple years?

3 Likes