Inflation/stagflation Thread

The SHTF in Europe this winter. That’s bound to affect the US but how?

Russia has curbed natural gas supplies to Europe amid soaring tensions over its invasion of Ukraine, with the effect of sparking an unprecedented energy crisis across Europe, impacting Germany the most.

The German government’s primary concern is avoiding a ‘Lehman-style’ collapse of its energy industry.

Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that German officials are mulling over increasing their stake in troubled NatGas importer Uniper SE above 50% – there’s also talk about nationalization.

Uniper needs additional support from the German government after tapping into rescue packages worth as much as 20 billion euros ($20 billion), according to one source. Soaring NatGas prices and Russian energy giant Gazprom’s supply cuts via the Nord Stream 1 to Europe have led Uniper to millions of euros per day in losses, which Berlin’s first rescue package for a 30% stake in the utility was in July.

Is shock and awe on the horizon?

Just sort of thinking out loud and wondering (to myself) what will happen to the markets if, one week hence, Powell announces 100 basis points.

Prior Powell has pooh-poohed Chairman Volcker’s approach. But in light of yesterday’s inflation report perhaps he has become “enlightened”. Now Powell would not qualify even to carry Chairman Volcker’s jock strap. Volcker was a giant. But still, maybe Powell could reach down deep inside himself and manage to locate a handful of spunk. Maybe one week from today the bland man will find a way to display some guts! Because that is the sort of thing it’s gonna take to beat back this inflation.

Jerome:

You’re shooting for two, the data continues to say “eight plus”.

Do you see a problem here, Pookie? Ya think!!

ETA

You also have to consider next week is certainly Powell’s last chance for shock and awe. Heck, it might already be too late. But such a move six days before an election: s’not gonna happen.

So next week is it.

Nothing will happen to the markets. Because it’ll already be baked in over the next week. If anything the market will go up with the optimism that this move shows we’re moving in the right direction.

I dont know that a big move is approriate now, anyways. The data we see now is the result of rate increases about three increases ago. The effects of the most recent increase is yet to be seen, yet the inflation numbers are already starting to get back in line. Another big increase might eventually prove to be too much.

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Things will have to evolve quickly for that to happen, not something I envision. Right now the percentage likelihood for 100 is only 33%. We will know in (a few hours) less than one week.

If only there was a way to preserve and export all the hot air we generate… :smile:

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You mean that their primary concern isn’t “how could Trump have seen this coming years ago and warned us about it”? :laughing:

Germany shouldn’t really worry. Since they were the primary funder of the PIGS, it’s now time for payback. I can hear already hear the Italians - “Germania, Germania, Vaff…”

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Looks like someone got strong armed and the strike is off and the workers are getting what they want.

Maybe the railroad owners were told by Dear Leader they would be the first target of his new 87,000 strong IRS force if they didn’t cave until at least after midterms. That would be the Chicago Way.

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Argentina reminds us about where socialism ends…

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Be aware Biden and his troops are doing everything in their power right now to keep these monthly inflation report numbers down.

That will not be the case after November eighth.

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EU woes

  • ECB’S DE GUINDOS SAYS THE EURO AREA IS NOW FACING A CHALLENGING OUTLOOK.
  • ECB’S DE GUINDOS SAYS HE VERY HIGH INFLATION IS DAMPENING SPENDING AND PRODUCTION
  • ECB’S DE GUINDOS SAYS DEPRECIATION OF THE EURO ALSO ADDS TO THESE INFLATIONARY PRESSURES.
  • ECB’S DE GUINDOS SAYS INFLATION IS PROJECTED TO BE UNACCEPTABLY HIGH THIS YEAR AND NEXT.

We’re somewhat lucky that this political and economic environment has pushed up the value of the dollar. Otherwise, our inflation would be even higher if our currency was weak relative to buying everything abroad.

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Not that it makes any difference but for August alone was about 7%. The government is printing and printing to give money to the poor and the party’s constituents. There is plenty of kickbacks and corruption involved in that safety net.

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Ah thanks, read too quickly.

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I wonder how long it will take the railroads to raise their rates to pay for the extra pay and bennies for the unions? Probably until after the election😃

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Starting with 10% to the big guy. :smile:

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Obsession or fixation? This is in Argentina.

I’m sure Argentina has thier own “big guy”. Goose’s only fault was thinking theirs only gets 10%.

Besides, we dont know what business ventures Hunter might have in South America, since everyone has been so forthcoming about his EurAsia dealings. :wink:

Nah! Although the laptop story has been ignored, buried, and dismissed, I just want to keep the freedom flame alive. :slight_smile:

Mr. quick on the trigger, you stole my thunder. However, since my knuckles aren’t hurting, possibly because my brain is lubricated …

Since Heisenberg Hunter Biden is a master cooker agronomist, he must be a member of many Argentinian companies’ boards of directors. Also, his multiple petrochemical degrees and highly regarded research papers must make him highly sought after by Argentina’s “big oil” industry. Consequently, we can presume he’s kicking back 10% to the big guy, even though he would have easily acquired these jobs even if his father weren’t the family boss.

Biden dumping the Strategic Re-election Reserve into November. I guess he’s really running for a 2nd term and is going to keep selling all the way until 2024.

Sept 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Department said on Monday it will sell up to 10 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, for delivery in November, extending the timing of a plan to sell 180 million barrels from the stockpile to tame petroleum prices.

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Railroad strike still may be in the cards.

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I suspect this was the plan (into November) all along, but were afraid that it would be undeniably political if originally scheduled that way. By flowing into November, there won’t be a big price increase prior to the election, in anticipation of the taps being turned off.

Fortunately, we’ll be able to refill the “strategic” tanks with $100 oil directly from Iran. Iran will no longer need oil as we’ve helped them to develop nuclear energy. We’re such humanitarians. :>

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