Inflation/stagflation Thread

Said by someone who has never owned a business.

ETA: Or who has only worked for the worst of the worst … or swallows what some political party is shoveling … not saying which one. :slight_smile:

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Part of the difference in perspective is that some think that “minimum wage worker” is a catch-all term. When in actuality, there are “skilled minimum wage workers”, and “minimum wage dolts”. What raising the minimum wage really accomplishes is ensuring the dolts get what the skilled workers get (and often are already receiving - most places do not continue paying loyal long-term workers the absolute minimum).

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Said by someone who has never worked for a “just OK” employer.

You’re wrong on both counts. I’ve always had one or more side hustles, but it’s true that I haven’t hard to hire for these, so I don’t know what it’s like to run a restaurant. I have hired people at not-much-above minimum wage though. And I’ve worked for pretty good employers, but my skills are in demand and I’m not a minimum wage worker. Even my first job in high school was above minimum wage.

What it’s supposed to accomplish is ensure that those skilled workers get a raise commensurate with the increase in the minimum wage. The minimum wage is supposed to raise all boats, not ensure the dolts get paid as much as the skilled workers.

Great theory. But in reality it simply doesn’t happen. At best, the difference narrows significantly, to where the “higher” pay rate is more symbolic than a meaningful amount of money. Over time, a new gap grows, at which point the calls for another minimum wage increase start ('cause those dolts are back to getting screwed).

Actually, at best it means the dolt doesn’t get hired, and the good worker is stuck doing two jobs at once for that new pay rate.

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The low unemployment rate suggests that there may be a shortage of dolts :rofl:.

So you are one of those employers that you described. Now I understand your dim view of them. Trust me, not all are of your ilk. :grin: :rofl: :laughing:

There are lots of employers who start employees at minimum wage and promptly increase that wage for deserving employees after 3 or 4 months. This happened to me at age 15 as a shelf stocker and ice house worker.

When the minimum wage is increased, it causes employers to hire fewer employees. Thus, the potential employees who deserve higher than minimum wages have fewer opportunities to prove their mettle. I started many minimum wage jobs at ~$1.50/hr and continued to get them throughout, and shortly after my college years. I never felt underpaid, or a “victim”. I also didn’t stay at the minimum wage for many weeks at each job.

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Yeah, it raises all boats, Except those on a fixed income. So what’s the point except make a few think that they helped the bottom folks. It then gives the producers an excuse to raise prices. Usally increasing the profit of the producers, keeping the fixed income folks far behind.

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Not automatically. If minimum wage is raised from $10/hr to $12/hr while the effective market hourly rate for unskilled worker is already $15+/hr, this raise has no impact on the employer’s hiring decisions. They’ll still find the same number of workers taking their jobs at $12/hr than at $10/hr, none.

Minimum wage should only be set for potential entry-level job markets in which supply is much lower than demand. In these rare cases, the low minimum wage sets a floor for the minimum lowest amount someone could barely live on temporarily if they are in a difficult job market environment (and don’t have the skills to work their way up from there).

But it’s true that, I could see a minimum wage that is set above market rate being both inflationary and limiting job creation and business activity. The one in CA targeting large fast food chains could indeed have many perverse effects. It’s hard to imagine how that would not push ALL entry-level positions to $20/hr. Unless those grocery store workers are really averse to flipping burgers.

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Dec’23 CPI out, +0.3% for the month or 3.7% annualized rate. Core CPI the same 3.7% annualized rate.

CPI m/m: ACTUAL 0.3% … Expecting 0.2%
CPI y/y: ACTUAL 3.4% … Expecting 3.2%
CPI Core m/m: ACTUAL 0.3% … Expecting 0.3%
CPI Core y/y: ACTUAL 3.9% … Expecting 3.8%

Came in a bit higher than people were expecting.

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3 month t-bill 5.37%
10 year note 4.04%

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So, basically unchanged?

Yes. The 10 year note is, of course, down 100 basis points from its rate in the Fall of 2023

Biden trying to give us cheap (natural) gas for those Evil Stoves going into the election this fall. Banning new export licenses pending a review of the impact on the Climate Emergency -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/biden-freezes-approvals-to-export-gas-imperiling-major-projects

The Biden administration on Friday halted the approval of new licenses to export US liquefied natural gas while it scrutinizes how the shipments affect climate change, the economy and national security — a moratorium likely to disrupt plans for billions of dollars in projects.

“We will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security and our environment,” President Joe Biden said in a statement. “This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.”

which will no doubt be made worse by whatever other countries burning stuff less clean than nat gas instead.

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Personally, I’m not against the idea of putting our own needs first. I don’t buy the argument about doing this to look at the impact on climate change though. But taking into account the US energy security isn’t a bad thing IMO.

And I would even like us to possibly look at taking similar measures for oil as well if possible. If it bumps prices for others, maybe they can ask China or India to supply them since they have such a warm relationship with major producers.

Although in terms of “soft power”, I’m sure that’s gonna go well our allies if it bumps their energy costs. But hey it’s an election year… we could totally coincidentally revert this by the end of Q4 2024 or next year when the audits are completed …

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I think this is a twofer. Yes cheaper gas for the election, although we sure as heck are not seeing it here in California, but also starving the hydrocarbon producers, so they do not build infrastructure.

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I agree entirely. Most of the rub comes from how they insist on dressing it up with the virtue signaling. It comes off as either them unnecessarily trying to pull one over on everyone (and being very bad at it), or their priorities/motivation being severely misplaced - even if the end result is generally acceptible.

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What are you talking about? Gas was > $2/therm a year ago, now it’s closer to $0.50. Nothing special going on in California.

As usual you are making an unsupported assertion. What is your source? The prices are down because they skyrocketed last year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/california-natural-gas-prices-surge-with-bills-300-higher-than-normal

A 385% Gas-Bill Jump Stuns Californians Facing Cold, Wet Winter

Nationwide, wholesale natural gas prices prices have fallen about 50%. The opposite trend has emerged in the Golden State, where prices have risen 63%.

You didn’t provide a timeline, so I just compared my gas bills from this month to the one a year ago.

Also the article you commented on talks about what just occurred (“The Biden administration on Friday halted the approval of new licenses to export”), and may affect future prices, but your complaint is about what’s happening now (“we sure as heck are not seeing it here in California”). Of course you’re not seeing anything – the halting of approvals hasn’t had any effect on your bill yet, and that’s assuming that this will have effect on prices. It may not.