Inflation/stagflation Thread

Biden Logic, the Tariffs edition. 4x higher on EVs (100% extra), 3x on metals like steel, 2x on semiconductors and solar. Quite the reversal with a “tough on China” stance for a Big Guy who was getting 10% of a lot of china money not so long ago.

  • BIDEN TO HIKE TARIFFS ON CHINA EVS AND OFFER SOLAR EXCLUSIONS
  • YELLEN: HIGHER STEEL TARIFFS ON CHINA ‘APPROPRIATE’
  • DEMOCRATS BEG BIDEN FOR HIGHER CHINA TARIFFS IN PLAY FOR SWING STATE VOTERS
  • President Joe Biden will quadruple tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and sharply increase levies for other key industries this week
  • During a visit last month to Pennsylvania — a swing state in November’s election — Biden said he wanted the agency to triple tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium. USTR also recently opened an investigation into unfair practices in the Chinese shipbuilding industry following a petition from the United Steelworkers union.
  • BIDEN: NEW TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS WILL ENSURE OUR WORKERS ARE NOT HELD BACK BY UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES.
  • CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY: U.S. SHOULD IMMEDIATELY CORRECT ITS ‘WRONGDOINGS’ AND CANCEL ADDITIONAL TARIFF MEASURES AGAINST CHINA

but also whatever it might be we should do, it’s not what the Bad Orange Man would propose.

  • US TRADE REPRESENTATIVE: FURTHER ACTION IS REQUIRED BEYOND TARIFF CHANGES TO ADDRESS CHINA’S UNFAIR POLICIES.
  • BIDEN: TRUMP’S PROPOSED ACROSS-THE-BOARD TARIFFS WOULD DRIVE UP COSTS FOR FAMILIES.

So some tariffs good, more tariffs better, Trump tariffs - Evil, and don’t vote for him! Mine save jobs (by making everything domestic more expensive), his will cause inflation.

Guess what - all tariffs cause inflation and higher prices - that’s the point. Of course they also cause lower demand and depress the economy at large.

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Since I’m color blind and know your sensitivity to the crippled, I looked at the biggest letters - “BIDENOMICS”.

Well, I will agree with you that Bidenomics is one of the most hallucinogenic (if that’s not yet hate speech) economic descriptors of recent, or long-term memory.

I don’t EVER recall seeing a dozen eggs for over $1.50 before January 30, 2021.

You Californians and your short-term memory issues are very beneficial for incumbents. :slight_smile:

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I don’t disagree, but how that hurt us (the US of A)?

More demand for our product raises the price. Selling to the highest bidder means there could be pressue to export more than we otherwise would, leaving us short domestically.

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April CPI +0.3%, still annualized 3.7% monthly inflation and core inflation. However, people expected worse

  • U.S CPI (MOM) (APR) ACTUAL: 0.3% VS 0.4% PREVIOUS; EST 0.4%
  • US CORE CPI MOM ACTUAL 0.3% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.4%)

Market is up on the less that 5% run rate they expected.

  • U.S. S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES UP 0.55%, NASDAQ FUTURES UP 0.58%, DOW FUTURES UP 0.49%
  • US SHORT-TERM INTEREST-RATE FUTURES JUMP AFTER CPI REPORT AS TRADERS ADD TO BETS ON FED RATE CUTS
  • FED SWAPS PRICE IN FASTER PACE OF 2024 RATE CUTS AFTER CPI DATA
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70% of that monthly increase was due to gas and shelter. Kinda deflates the whole greedflation argument of Biden and Co.

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Former head of PIMCO and economic expert El Erian on our inflation problem, and why it’s not going to get better.

What they call the last mile, which is getting from around 3.5% inflation to 2%, which is the target, is going to be very hard, and it will include trade-offs. Why is this very hard? First, domestically, things have changed. We used to be in a deflationary environment, deregulation, liberalization, fiscal prudence. Now, we have industrial policy, government intervention, and fiscal irresponsibility. So, the domestic environment has changed. The global environment has changed. We are no longer globalizing, we are fragmenting the global economy. So, if you look at the environment, you’re trying to overcome a lot of headwinds when those were tailwinds.”

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Et tu Costco

Membership fees, according to reports, may see an uptick in price. During the chain’s fiscal-first-quarter earnings call, former Costco CFO Richard Galanti hinted at a price increase on the company’s popular CostcoGold and Executive memberships — the first time the memberships have increased since 2017. The increase could be anywhere between $5 and $10. The company reported its total cardholders increased to 132 million as of the end of the second quarter, a 7.3% increase over the same period a year ago.

Consumers have given up on saving for the American Dream and are spending money instead | Fortune

Consumers are so demoralized by inflation and high rates that they’ve given up on saving for the American Dream and are spending money instead, economist says

“This positive spending is not a reflection of some sort of internalized secret sense of confidence that consumers have,” he explained. “And instead my interpretation is that consumers see that a lot of aspirational goals that we talk about as part of the American Dream—homeownership, paying for college, paying for college for your kids, having a comfortable retirement—with high prices and high interest rates right now, those aspirational goals just feel increasingly out of reach.”
And as a result, consumers have “given up” on saving for those goals, Hsu added, noting that the still-strong labor market allows them to spend now.

LOL Everyone knows retail therapy is the solution to all things. Jibes well with the student loan thing. Spend frivolously first, then complain enough to get bailed out down the line. Maybe that’s the idea. No need to save, just wait for government welfare once SHTF.

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Biden at it again with the Strategic “Don’t Notice Gas Prices on your July 4th Weekend” Reserve.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/biden-releasing-1-million-barrels-of-gasoline-from-northeast-reserve-in-bid-to-lower-prices-at-pump/ar-BB1mNcLU

  • BIDEN IS RELEASING 1 MILLION BARRELS OF GASOLINE FROM A NORTHEAST RESERVE IN A BID TO LOWER PRICES AT THE PUMP
  • Biden to release 1 million barrels of gasoline to reduce prices at the pump ahead of July 4

focused on lowering prices at the pump for American families, especially as drivers hit the road for summer driving season,″ Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in the statement. “By strategically releasing this reserve in between Memorial Day and July 4th…

Silly me, I thought it was for geopolitical security like if Iran’s new leader decided to go Houthi and start attacking oil tankers trying to get out of the Persian Gulf.

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That redefines the meaning of the word strategic in strategic reserve. It’s clearly more a strategic resource to influence an election rather than a buffer against geopolitical risks.

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The funny thing about this Strategic Election Release is it shows all that stuff about “corporate greed” causing inflation (instead of overspending and debt) that the Biden PR and media team makes up is total bunk. I mean, how could all this extra gas lower prices when fuel and food prices are set entirely by evil corporations and have nothing to do with supply/demand? :clown_face:

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I think you’re expecting them to have a consistent policy vs a consistent emphasis on voter appeal regardless of actual impact.

The corpo greed propaganda is purposely blown out of proportions (I don’t think them dumb enough to actually believe their own BS) but that is supposed to resonate with their base and a very convenient foil. But they’ll also brag about how well Bidenomics work when the market hits new highs on strong corporate profit reports.

They release from strategic reserve to try to lower gas prices however modestly, but propose large tariffs which will increase prices Americans pay for imported stuff. Totally opposite effects but consistent in that they hope both will resonate with voters.

That’s also why neither Dems or GOP are doing anything to curb deficits/debt because they’re no effective way to spin this into a positive that’ll actually influence voters (at least until we have a debt crisis). All it’d do would be to burst the fake growth bubble that the frivolous fiscal policies of the past two administrations has manufactured and nobody wants that on their resume.

Why should young people put themselves into debt to go to radicalized colleges? Learn a trade and make good money and educate yourself on liberal arts from the Internet.

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Look at all this Greed-flation going on

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Well they called corpo greedflation because some companies were not lowering prices fast enough. At this point, I think it’s fair to call it pants-on-fire propaganda for the clueless.

The most annoying thing is the deliberate confounding of lower inflation and with prices going down. Countless articles claim the little guys keep getting squeezed by stubbornly high prices at a time when real wages for a majority of workers are actually going up very strongly (even according to liberals): https://www.americanprogress.org/article/workers-paychecks-are-growing-more-quickly-than-prices/#:~:text=Data%20from%20November%202023%20show,(2017–2019)%20average.

This new CAP analysis shows that real wage growth has been a point of strength in the recovery from the COVID-19 recession: Real average wage growth for a typical worker during this recovery has been the second highest of all recoveries from post-1980 recessions, and only the COVID-19 recovery has combined robust wage growth with a near-complete recovery of the unemployment rate.

It’s beyond belief to me how that greedflation junk can keep getting propagated in the face of clear economic evidence to the contrary.

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Rising wages may help working people, but rising prices are killing the purchasing power of retired people on a fixed income. It’s painful watching the pile of money you worked hard for shrinking.

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Don’t fixed income yields go up with interest rates? T-bills, TIPS and corporate bonds did… unless you’re stuck holding longer term paper.

Yes they do. But there are two problems here - first retirees tend to hold existing fixed income positions, which will lose money as rates rise on a mark to market basis. said another way they are locked in earning lower than the current risk free rate due to having purchased those bonds during the lower rate period prior. this is not unlike what happened to the several failed banks which owned high-quality fixed income assets, and those assets lost about half their value, leading to bank failure, since the banks were leveraged.

Secondly, as interest rates rise, the post tax earnings tends to fall since a higher fraction of the rate is lost to taxes. Inflation, however, is still present and the after-tax earnings are insufficient to keep up on a fixed income, low risk portfolio. If you think the risk free rate is 2-3% over inflation ( the former set by non-taxable intuitional investors), earning 3% when inflation is 0% nets you 2% in a 1/3 tax bracket, while earning 6% when inflation is 3% nets you only 1% after taxes. That’s a 50% cut in take home income.

In short, it’s definitely bad to be a retiree on a limited budget during times of rising rates and inflation.