Just trying to figure out what to believe so I can judge my investments (and hopefully not personal safety precautions) accordingly. I give a lot more weight to actions and incentives than to what people say, so I’m heavily discounting the press from both sides and trying to figure out what makes sense from the actual events.
For example, I bought some oil futures today on the expectation that there will be continued ongoing hostilities, and, given the US hard line against Putin, possibly escalate to Russia not selling their oil or gas to the west at all. This will lead to damage to their oil fields, serious storage and shipping constraint issues, and less global supply of oil broadly.
at the same time, the war has reshaped thinking about globalization and will likely, regardless of the outcome, lead to more domestic production and manufacturing and less reliance on foreign production (also see China buying all our PPE before admitting there was a pandemic in the works). This will take time, be less efficient, and cause more inflation through higher costs where hard assets like commodities might benefit.
And you have proof they aren’t? None of us are on the ground in Mariupol and both sides have incentive to lie about whose keeping the citizenry from fleeing (which they clearly want to do). Here’s the German press on it -
Ukraine suspends humanitarian corridors over Russian ‘provocations’
Vereshchuk had announced two humanitarian corridors on Sunday, one from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia and one between two towns in the Luhansk region.
Ukraine has accused Russia of sabotaging evacuation corridors from contested areas, while Moscow has placed the blame on Kyiv for failures to agree on safe corridors.
Sure, the Russians have plenty of blood on their hands, but so do the Ukrainians. They’re the ones who have, and we have been supporting, their Nazi forces who’ve been shelling the cities in the eastern ethnic regions for the last 7 years of the tune of 10-20k dead civilians. I’m sure there are plenty of war crimes to go around.
Your specific language about all of this makes you sound overly inclined to believe the Russian version of events – or at the very least you are extremely careless in assimilating some pretty specific Russian propaganda points in your language about it.
Trying to figure out how to minimize negative impacts on your investments is one thing – but being flippant about the situation is genuinely disgusting.
Ukrainian peace negotiators suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning after a meeting in Kyiv earlier this month, people familiar with the matter said… developed symptoms that included red eyes, constant and painful tearing, and peeling skin on their faces and hands, the people said.
They blamed the suspected attack on hard-liners in Moscow who they said wanted to sabotage talks to end the war. A person close to Mr. Abramovich said it wasn’t clear who had targeted the group. Mr. Abramovich and the Ukrainian negotiators, who include Crimean Tatar lawmaker Rustem Umerov, have since improved and their lives aren’t in danger…
ETA: well, maybe it’s just allergy season in Ukraine, too much gunpowder in the air or something
OFFICIAL WITH KNOWLEDGE SAYS INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTS SICKENING OF ABRAMOVICH, UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATORS WAS DUE TO AN ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR, NOT POISONING: RTRS
Oh, my LORD! Are we back to settled science on global cooling, global warming, Covid, and slavery? That is EXACTLY what Southerners were saying in the early/mid 1800’s about slavery. That argument is ignorant/specious, at best, and purposely deceitful, at worst. I’m a generous kind of a guy, so will attribute your comments to the former.
ETA: My suspicion of the main/lame/money/stream media leads me to the above. That suspicion is based on the last 30+ years (that I’ve paid attention) of propaganda that I’ve seen disguised as “journalism”. As a kid in civics class, I thought (erroneously) the first amendment was supposed to protect journalistic integrity. Sixty+ years later, I realize it only allows journalistic integrity. I’m embarrassed for my oversight and for what supposed “journalism” has become. Consequently, I’m not only suspicious of government, and their power, but also of journalists, and their power.
Here’s another less charitable take on the US media and US involvement
Who cares about US promises not to expand the NATO alliance eastwards after the Soviet Union broke up in 1991? And there is also Washington’s role in regime change in Ukraine in 2014? Or even the relentless demonization of Russia linked to the 2016 US presidential election followed by any unwillingness by Washington to negotiate even the most reasonable of Putin’s demands? Fuggedabout it! And also forget about considering whether or not the US has any national interest in going to war over Ukraine. Only Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard seem inclined to challenge the basic premise, which is to raise the question “Since Russia does not threaten us why are we doing this? Do we really want a possible nuclear war over Ukraine?”
And now the US is upping the ante by pushing ahead with its insistence that Russia is committing war crimes. But convincing the world on that point is a bit more difficult to accomplish. If one were to ask the question “Which nation in the world commits the most war crimes?” the general international response might well be Israel or the United States. Part of the problem would be working out an acceptable definition for a war crime while also developing a methodology for defining “the most.” If Israel attacks Syria four times in a week is that four separate war crimes or only part of one continuous war crime. As the United States has military bases in both Syria and Iraq that the respective governments have not authorized, and have in fact, asked the Americans to leave, is that a single war crime of illegal invasion and occupation or a continuous one punctuated only by the occasions when US troops kill a few of the natives? In any event it is difficult to “convict” Russia as neither Israel nor the US has ever been held accountable for the war crimes they have committed, to include shooting and bombing civilians, hospitals, schools at random and occasionally wedding parties and other social gatherings.
One of the recent lies is a replay of the old “let’s get Saddam Hussein” playbook. Remember those savage Iraqi soldiers tearing Kuwaiti babies out of their incubators and throwing them onto the floor? Of course, it was all a lie concocted by the Kuwaiti ruling family and US government largely neocon accomplices. Now we are learning that the vile Russians bombed a maternity hospital! Except, of course, that it may have turned out to be completely untrue.
But the best bit of lying has to be the ongoing propaganda war over twenty-six biological laboratories in Ukraine funded at least in part by the Pentagon. “Nothing to see here” says the Biden White House, while Russia is saying “Just a minute, folks…” Meanwhile the plot thickens as emails have now surfaced indicating that Joe Biden’s son Hunter was involved in obtaining, and profited from, the US government’s funding of the labs.
That makes sense, except for ZhiZhiPeng? being happy to buy ALL of their oil, even if surreptitiously. The Chicoms will then buy less oil from the rest of the world. I’m not disagreeing with your futures purchase, but expect that you will be on guard to sell it early.
Ha! I presume this is wishful thinking. Look at Uncle Joe and the Dems as similar to CNN. It doesn’t matter if something make sense. It doesn’t matter if something is factually correct. The ends justifies the means, and the ends is socialism/wokeism/communism/equalism for ALL but the ruling class, and their supporters
(see Putin and his oligarchs).
(see GNewsom and his covid mandates)
(see Fredo’s big brother and his nursing home murders, and other covid mandates).
That take was brought to you by the Kremlin, no doubt.
You mean the regions that were commandeered by off-the-books Russian troops who have been shelling the Ukrainian positions on the regions’ western borders?
Yes, after they didn’t like the government we helped install in that 2014 coup and got attacked by Ukraine as rebels for declaring independence. It’s so hard to tell which democratic freedom movement we’re supposed to be supporting these days, but I see Z recently banned all opposition parties and media so he must be our guy.
I would be much more amenable to listing to Tucker (Dumbo, IMO) Carlson on this, or anything, if I could find one of his reproaches on this subject, or similar, prior to 2008.
Or the DNC, RNC, ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, etc. My problem is not knowing the reason for the reporting by any of the above. I only know that it is reported for a reason, as opposed to journalism.
I’m not a Russky, nor do I support their dictatorial regime. Some of my relatives have actively worked to destroy the Communist system. I also have relatives in Russia who I’ve helped to provide medications (real medications, as opposed to CBD or pot).
I believe that Putin is an old school, brutal dictator. That said, after the last few decades of media descriptors (a couple of examples listed below), I don’t have a whole lot of faith in the media when they’re all jumping all over themselves to say the exact same thing.
the “out-of-control cowboy” Reagan description
the mathematically impossible Reagan economics plan
the Reagan voodoo economics
the Reagan impossible “StarWars” defense system (which was a huge part of dismantling the Evil Empire
the “too old and senile” Reagan description,
the "too cool for school (or common sense) Clinton description,
the “stupid out-of-control cowboy” Bush description,
the “savior, who is REALLY too cool for school” Obama description,
the “Bush recession”,
the “Bush depression”,
the “jobs saved or created” Obama statistics,
the Obama “summer of recovery”
the “keep your doctor” Obama healthcare takeover,
the Obama “government decides if your grandma deserves expensive treatment”
the “racists who opposed any Obama ideas” description,
the “pass the bill” to know what’s in it Obama healthcare takeover description,
the “devil/Hitler/Mussolini/Clinton” Trump description,
the “alert and energetic” Biden description,
the Covid “one view, masks247, submit, or be declared $%&*#” description
Now, I’m sure lots of readers will think that the reporters are only reporting what opponents are saying, and that’s part of their job. That is true, but repeating something ad infinitum, much like the dictatorships of Putin, fatboy of NKorea, fatdad of NKorea, Fidel Castro, Idi Amin, the current dictator of China, Winston Smith’s dear leader, and other rulers who controlled the media is not responsible journalism. Rather, it is closer to indoctrination/brainwashing … at least in my incredibly humble opinion.
You are correct. But to be fair, he’s only the next in a long line of such leaders that the imperialist oppressor Ruskies have produced going back to the czars. They briefly tried more soft power leaders and it failed quickly and spectacularly leaving the country depleted and weaker.
So I guess Russia needs the strong man type in power to control the masses of drunk drones that counts as its citizenry. And it’s hard to blame him personally for just wanting to continue doing the same stuff his imperialist country has considered normal treatment of its neighbors for centuries.
Looks like these bans are for the duration of the war. Even if it doesn’t fail legal challenges, I doubt they’ll stay once the invader withdraws his troops.
The nationalization of all media and brutal suppression of all dissent has been going on in Russia for decades with no end in sight.
It’s not at all difficult to tell which is more free and democratic.
