Investment impact of Russia Ukraine crisis

Since the West getting involved, things have been escalating and even moreso recently.

  1. Russia has been using Iranian drones and soon potentially Iranian ballistic missiles.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-launched-8060-iran-developed-drones-during-war-2024-09-13/

When the West was, belatedly, supporting Israel in the Middle East conflict, and now threatening a counterattack against Iran, Russia weighed in and warned Israel against any attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. That’s pretty much the end of the West’s hopes of a non-nuclear Iran if Russia is willing to protect them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-tells-israel-not-even-consider-attacking-iranian-nuclear-facilities-tass-2024-10-17/

  1. North Korea has begun supplying additional troops and ballistic missiles to the Russia war effort in Ukraine. More sharing of nuclear and missile technology from Russia to N Korea will be highly destabilizing for any attempts to contain N Korea’s nuclear ambitions and threat to the U.S.
  1. China has been supplying Russia with additional drones and war materials for their Ukraine operations. This has chilled the already tense US-Sino relations, which has seen tit-for-tat tariffs on consumer goods as well recently.

https://apnews.com/article/china-russia-sanctions-united-states-ukraine-drones-49e4e56bb37ee46faf028f649df140b0

In short, the US’s support for Ukraine has come at a huge cost in terms of geopolitical instability, driving many of our enemies towards military and economic collaboration and sometimes mutual aid or defense.

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You have it almost correct:

There, I fixed it.

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When has Israel ever cared about what others say? I’d be surprised if they listen this time. Russia isn’t going to attack Israel, and I’m unaware of Russia having any kind of defense pact with Iran.

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Recap on Zelenskyy corruption, and how he was about to lose everything until Biden blackmailed the country by withholding US aid to get them to fire their corruption prosecutor. Hunter continued to get millions for his Ukrainian no-show job, of course.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post lied about Zelenskyy investigation to help justify impeaching Trump for asking Ukraine to investigate… actual corruption.

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I suspect our election sealed Ukraine’s fate. I doubt they can coax Trump (by flattery, of course) into continuing military support, though they’re trying (see Zelensky’s post on X or the articles about it if you care). I doubt Ukraine can continue fighting without USA’s support. Putin will force some kind of treaty that will prevent Ukraine from joining EU or NATO, take what’s already occupied (or maybe more, since they officially annexed regions they did not control), and there may be temporary peace. It cannot possibly last long, because Ukrainians hate Russia, there are more ethnic Ukrainians in the west than in the now-occupied east, and they all want to join EU and NATO, and the only way to stop this is to install Russia’s puppets in government and continuously prevent revolution, or invade.

Edit: fixed east/west.

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I think you have the east-west ethnic majorities reversed. I agree that Ukraine is toast in short order. I assume a peace treaty will be signed by next Spring.

I’m not so sure about the timeline after that. Despite the resentment in western Ukraine, they won’t have the means (and maybe not the will) to act upon it for a while.

NATO has already consolidated its gains in Europe, finishing the containment of Russia by adding Finland and Sweden. Sure, adding Moldova, and Ukraine could have been the best outcome for it, but I think the current state will be considered good enough so that NATO will not entertain restarting a war soon.

EU and US will likely continue imposing sanctions (very little benefits lifting them after a peace treaty rewarding the invasion) and decoupling with Russia energetically and economically since that carries few consequences of importance (and keeping a drain on Russia’s growth is worth it). So I wouldn’t bet on investments restarting massively in either Ukraine or Russia very soon. The write-offs from seizures for many companies are probably a little too fresh to pretend they cannot happen again when Russia annexes the rest of Ukraine in a few years or installs a puppet government like in Belarus. At least not worth the modest potential earnings and bad PR.

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I had the directions reversed, not just for ethnic majority but also for the occupation, but otherwise it’s correct. Fixed now, thanks.

Why not? They coaxed Biden with kickbacks? To be fair, they paid off his son who then kicked back 10% to the big guy. Well, they also had to fire a couple of corruption-focused prosecutors, but the main point is that they know how to grease the wheels that need greasing, and possibly line their own pockets, to boot.

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