Here’s a list of materials etf’s. It looks like everybody else has the same idea. many are up 2-3% today
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I looked into CAT theft deterrents. None of them looked very promising. They all cost a lot and didn’t seem that effective.
The best solution I’ve seen is custom made shielding for cars like the Prius that basically put sheet metal with security screws over the cat and make it a lot harder to steal. The other solution involved putting the cat in the engine bay after the exhaust manifold rather than on the underside of the car.
probably help protect expensive battery too.
I wasn’t really concerned for myself about CAT thefts. I was looking at companies manufacturing deterrents as a possible investment. You are right about the best deterrent being a bolted on large shield. Anything that isn’t easy is currently a decent deterrent.
Gold prices are off their lows but remain even now a bit below the $1800 level:
The gold market is off its session lows but remains under $1,800 an ounce as consumer inflation pressures rise less than expected in August.
Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department said its U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August, after a 0.5% rise in July. The data missed consensus forecasts as economists were forecasting a 0.4% rise.
For the year, the report said that headline inflation rose 5.3%, in line with expectations.
The full report is here:
Gold prices remain below $1,800 following 0.3% rise in U.S. CPI
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Thoughts on whether REITs offer better inflation protection than gold? I’ve had a stake in SCHH (Schwab ETF of REITs) for awhile, but am open to other options.
I think a smarter bet is to buy gold mining stocks. Gold isn’t an investment. It just sits there and maintains value. Think of it as an alternative to holding cash. It will hold its value with inflation but it isn’t going to make you rich.
Gold stocks are a real business investment that you can hold for long periods of time. The gold mining stocks are down quite a bit so it would likely work out to be a good purchase.
My thoughts on REITs:
- Do not have any, because I already have a significant chunk of my net worth in real estate (though it’s only residential).
- If & when inflation goes up or the economy heats up, so will interest rates, which will put downward pressure on housing prices, and therefore probably REITs. But I haven’t researched whether this actually happened in the past.
- I expect lots of headwinds for office space and possibly even retail space because of the pandemic shock. More people will be working from home, shopping from home, and eating at home than before.
My thoughts on gold:
- Hasn’t been very good over the past few years. Actually I think it’s the worst performing “asset class” I own. There’s no guarantee it’ll provide any inflation protection going forward.
Prices for gold, silver, and platinum are all up today in response to the disclosures regarding inflation.
There is talk around of price breakouts for the precious metals. I’m not seeing that yet.
I don’t get how gold is supposed to help against inflation. The R2 of 0.16 of gold price vs. CPI since 1970 implies very little correlation.
It may be a safe haven if you’re expecting a large correction in the stock market but historic record does not really support its use as inflation hedge or even that it’s all that correlated to inflation: WSJ on gold vs. inflation since 1971
The other thing it may be good against is erosion of purchasing power via loss of value in currency. If you think the inflation is mostly caused by this factor, then it could be useful, maybe more so than TIPS which are still based on the currency. But that’s a different argument from purely inflation one.
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Long term its not really a good inflation hedge.
I think the value of gold vs inflation is in situations of a local hyperinflation of a specific currency.
You might do as well just parking money in a different currency though.
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Gold, silver, and platinum prices all down today.
Gold is (roughly) at $1784+/oz.; seems to be going nowhere fast.
Bloomberg: Whale sighting
I run into whales personally from time to time, unrelated to gold. They are never easy to deal with and it’s not a fun or happy experience.
In this instance Bloomberg believes this is a sovereign gold whale which is a whole lot larger than anything I ever have encountered.
If you want actually to view the article you must first clear your Bloomberg cookies, if any. Then you will have one shot before they cut you off. Course you can always clear your Bloomberg cookies again to obtain another shot:
Looks Like There’s a Whale Snapping Up Gold Bullion Below $1,800
Spot gold is again bobbing along near $1,800 an ounce, as it has been since mid-2020. The stickiness of that level, particularly as fundamentals turned more bearish, suggests there’s a big buyer somewhere in these waters.
Since breaking above the round number in July 2020, the gold price dipped below it 19 times on a closing basis, only to regain its footing. In the past year, the modeled value of gold, based on a regression study that includes the dollar, real rates and ETF holdings, dropped nearly 10%. Yet the metal’s price only fell around 2%. Clearly, there is a big buyer who considers the metal a long-term hold.
There is more if you view the entire article, including charts and stuff.
When it comes to gold you always think India or China. I wonder.
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I would like to see the model but there does not seem to be a link to it. I am surprised the price of gold is as low as it is given the huge amount of fiat currency creation around the world. I could certainly see China converting some of the dollars they receive for their one-sided trade with the US into gold.
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Gold touches $1,900 for the first time since June on flare up in Russia-Ukraine tensions
Gold has been reacting to the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, as well as evidence that inflation is surging in many parts of the world in the aftershocks from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prices for the metal have climbed this month, benefitting mainly from “haven-investment demand brought about by the U.S.-Russia tension over Ukraine and concerns of persistent, elevated inflation,” said Jeff Klearman, portfolio manager at GraniteShares, which offers the GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR).
Against that backdrop, gold for April delivery rose $24.40, or 1.3%, to trade at $1,895.90 an ounce, following a 0.8% gain on Wednesday, which had marked the highest settlement for the most-active contract since June 11, FactSet data show. Prices on Thursday touched a high at $1,900, also for the first time since June.
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Link not working.
Problem for me with gold is that if (like myself) you don’t believe in it as a long-term investment, then you gotta consider it only a short term play. That means winning twice on the timing of your purchase and sale of gold. That’s hard for me to do consistently on any investment but smarter folks may prevail…
Is Russia ‘panic gold buying’?
The Bank of Russia said it would be restarting its official gold purchases after a two-year hiatus. But some analysts warn that gold-selling is not that far off as Russia battles sanctions and a plummeting ruble.
On Sunday, Russia’s central bank announced that it would resume its gold purchases from the domestic market as it attempts to establish some financial stability amid a barrage of new sanctions following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s economy is starting to feel very isolated after the West implemented sanctions that penalized Russia’s central bank and excluded several Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system.
In the meantime, gold has rallied in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with investors fleeing to the safe-haven metal for protection. In February, prices rose $120, with April Comex gold futures last trading at $1,926.40 an ounce.
Russia’s decision to resume gold purchases comes almost two years after its central bank suspended its domestic gold-buying program. This was at a time when gold prices soared at the onset of the pandemic.
Prior to that, Russia spent years boosting its gold reserves. Last year, the value of Russian gold in its forex reserves had surpassed the country’s U.S. dollar holdings for the first time ever. At the end of June 2020, the country’s total gold reserves as part of the foreign exchange holdings were up at 22.9%.
This represents Russian President Vladimir Putin’s border strategy to de-dollarize the Russian economy and protect it from further sanctions.
According to the latest IMF data, Russia holds nearly 2,300 tonnes of gold as of the end of January — the fifth-biggest sovereign gold owner.
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They may be buying Russian mined gold, but that’s in rubles. They will have to start selling it at some point in the near to mid future.
Even though the central bank is prevented by sanctions from transacting its gold, I’d be surprised if they cannot find some bad actors like Taiwan wannabe-invader to smuggle it to.
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“Swamped!” - Got gold?
Gold Dealers Swamped by Demand as War Creates Inflation Scare
(Bloomberg) – Gold is playing its age-old role as a safe haven in times of wars and crises, and people all over the world are piling in.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent the price of everything from oil and gas to wheat and metals skyrocketing, sparking inflation fears and threatening global growth. That’s driving retail investors everywhere from Vienna and Singapore to New York to the safety of gold, which spiked to $2,070.44 an ounce, close to the record reached during the pandemic.
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