Tax changes / proposals - discussion

Here’s a very good article covering the likely / proposed Biden tax plan.

My quick takes

  • pretax 401k’s for high earners would be vastly worse, and somewhat worse for normal people who use them for tax planning / income reduction as well ( such as to keep AGI low enough for credit thresholds). This is because the proposal replaces the current non-taxability of such retirement contributions with a flat 26%(?) credit regardless of income. This gives more benefit to those in tax brackets lower than that, and less to those higher. However, it also has the consequence of making those previously pretax contributions 1) now fully taxable at the state level (since you don’t get a federal AGI deduction, just a credit), and 2) fully taxable when withdrawal as well, despite having only gotten a partial credit when made in a higher tax bracket. This is much worse than breakeven if you are in the same high bracket at contribution and withdrawal, making Roth’s much better.

  • estate taxes gets a lot worse, due to both the reduction from roughly $12M per person to $6M for the estate exemption, and removal entirely of the step up in basis at death. This suggests giving away the extra $6M this year, which apparently the IRS has said they wouldn’t come after. Also, it would suggest giving away assets incrementally over your life to avoid a huge tax and liquidity hit when all your assets, including possibly illiquid things like family homes, private or family business stakes, and of course stocks’ appreciation over the long term, all come due at once.

  • those in high tax brackets would see much higher capital gains taxes due to the elimination of the long term / qualified dividend rates and instead taxing these at the (also increased) top ordinary income brackets plus the Obamacare investment tax as well. This would suggest selling any appreciated long term liquid holdings this year to avoid a near doubling of the tax rate on those gains.

  • tax deductions would be reduced in value for those in several of the higher tax brackets via capping their deduction benefit at 28% instead of being deducted at your marginal rate. This suggests accelerating deductions into this year, in addition to also accelerating income if possible into this year where the tax rates would also be more favorable (an odd combination)

  • social security taxes on wages would be uncapped, so wages over $400k would continue to be taxed at 12% instead of that maximum stopping any further taxes. Hard to due much here other than delay income to the extent possible until a more friendly administration might be elected.

In short, those in the top brackets would face a roughly 1/5 hit to their current take home and marginal tax brackets of around half their income (before additional state taxes). 60% marginal combined rates would be common for high earners in high tax states, and edge cases could be closer to 70%.

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