A bet to see if Tesla will gain 28% of its value or fall 100%? Sounds like a one sided bet 
I am looking to take a short position and would welcome 450.
Not really one side bet if you believe Tesla is going to bankrupt in coming years. If your assumption is correct, then TSLA price should start to gradually go down hill in next 2 years as it approaches to BK and the chance of hitting $450 within next 2 years should diminish.
So what prize should we bet on? If you are right, I will get you any car brand clothing and accessory (based on your selection) up to $500 value. If TSLA hits $450/share, you get me Tesla clothing and accessory (based on my selection) up to $500 value? That should be enough to cover for a hat, shirt, and nice jacket. Deal?
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oooooooh a bet! in as a witness.
musk is a genius and tesla is a good car, i can’t see tesla going under. but its p/e is a bit high. 
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Tesla Model 3 was listed on Craigslist for $150,000! Wow!
No risk, no reward:wink:
I’d rather place a long term deep out of the money options bet that Tesla will collapse that would likely pay off 20:1 turning my $500 into 10k.
I am certain Tesla is going to collapse but the only thing I am not sure is when. The bubble is going to pop at some point but that could be next month, 2018, or 2022 for all I know but Tesla will go from the cult\hype phase back to reality.
doubtful. musk has other companies and he can easily restructure, plus tesla can’t fill the demand
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I’m betting the other way. I bought a few months ago January 2019 calls with strike prices between $400 and $600.
So I will take that as a no to our friendly bet.
So what put options would you buy to convert your $500 into $10k?
Many shorts have lost money since they’ve been shorting since 2012. What makes it different this time especially when there is now 500k pre-order? It just seems you would be better off to short GoPro than Tesla if you really want to convert $500 to $10K.
I don’t do leaps. But your strategy makes some sense if bullish on TSLA. How long do you keep Jan 2019?
Would be nice to convert $5k to $100K so that I can buy Model X too 
I plan to keep them until at least the middle of next year. The production issues for the model 3 should then be resolved and, hopefully, Tesla would have made some good progress towards autonomous driving.
Tesla Model 3 bottleneck confirmed to be at Gigafactory 1, Panasonic CEO says should be resolved ‘soon’: Tesla Model 3 bottleneck confirmed to be at Gigafactory 1, Panasonic CEO says should be resolved 'soon' | Electrek
But today Reuters reports that Panasonic CEO Kazuhiro Tsuga confirmed that they know the “cause” of the bottlenecks and that production should increase soon:
“Panasonic Corp Chief Executive Kazuhiro Tsuga said on Tuesday that output could soon be increased at Tesla Inc’s “gigafactory” battery plant as the causes of production bottlenecks for Tesla’s Model 3 are now understood.”
He added that parts of the battery pack manufacturing process have yet to be automated.
“This process (for battery packs) will be soon automated, and then the number of vehicles to be produced will rise sharply,”
He made the comment during the release of the Japanese company’s second-quarter results today.
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Hopefully it’s just a battery issue. TSLA shares are getting pounded as if Model 3 production won’t increase. May need to add few more shares today if it keeps going down.
BTW, I got a notice email from Tesla saying that my order has been delayed to early 2018…sucks!
Republican tax bill proposes eliminating EV tax credit at the end of this year…thoughts? How does this impact your reservation and willingness to buy?
Assuming the tax bill passes (which I don’t believe it will), 0% chance of me buying without the $7,500 credit…won’t cancel until the last minute though (day one online reservation).
Will wait it out until I really need a new vehicle
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I think the stock drop is due to the following (from CNN):
The company said Wednesday that it burned through $1.3 billion in the most recent quarter – far more than Wall Street had been expected – and posted the largest quarterly loss in the company’s history.
Lots of stories around with the usual love/hate attitudes: Forbes, CNN, Chicago Tribune.
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I am a Model 3 reservation holder, but only put down shortly before Tesla’s Model 3 launch event in late July. Original delivery window for a first production run vehicle was Apr-Jun '18, now slipped a month to May-Jul '18. I wish that were realistic, but how can the ~3 month delay announced in production ramp up equate to just a one month slip? It’s disappointing not just because of the longer wait times, but I now expect to miss out on the full Federal tax credit even if I go for the more expensive first production vehicle, which I probably won’t at this point.
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If I don’t get full tax credit, I will definitely have to reconsider about buying Model 3 or other EV. But I seriously doubt EV tax credit will get repealed completely. Maybe they will just put a deadline of EV credits up to year 2018.
Oh, I’m not expecting a repeal either. What I am expecting is for Tesla to make 200k US sales in 1Q18 despite the Model 3 slowdown, in which case there will only be half the Federal tax credit available to Tesla purchases during the back half of 2018 when a Model 3 should be available to me.