Whither bonds? .

I read some kind of a study (take that for what it’s worth) in the last ten years that showed employees who took their current employer’s offer to keep them, stayed less than two years after the raise. It had something to do with the employer not appreciating the employee’s perceived loyalty, and expecting more/better work for the raise that was given under threat of departure.

I also believe the “racket” that is HR has a lot to do with it.

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Thanks for this reminder. I thought it was on the 25th. They accepted my order, so presume it will go through.

It was the 26wk bill that is on the 25th. I went ahead and placed an order for it while I was there.

This is how it has worked in the companies I’ve worked for. It got me a nice raise right at the start of the dot-com era. I know of a co-worker in my next job who did that and, yes, he got his extra money. He was the first one let go the following recession.

The 10 year real rate is 0.62% as of 12:39 PM EDT on July 20. Let’s hope that Fed chairman Powell does not say something soothing to drive interest rates down like he did for my five-year tips auction earlier this year :face_with_raised_eyebrow:


If it had only gained, and held, .005 more, we’d be in business. Sadly, what a droop. I’m stuck with it, but will be paying a lot closer attention to the re-opens in Aug and Sept. As well, I may split my 26wk in two, using half for the 13 week. Demand seems very high.

as usual with the central banks this is too little too late

That marks the first time since 2011 that the ECB has raised rates, and takes Europe’s main rate back to zero. Rates in the region have been negative since 2014.

Edit. in not unrelated news, the Italian government collapsed. The ECB announced a plan for Germany to bail out Mediterranean Euroweenie basketcases. let’s see how happy they are about that after Putin shuts off the gas.

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The real rate at the 10 year TIPS auction on 7/21/22 was 0.63%

impressive even after the euroweenies raised their discount rate


You’re right, and I’m not only jumping for joy, but preparing to kick the pants of the guy that I asked about the closing rate. He said it fell below .5 which meant .375. I wished I’d put more in, and may do so on the re-openings.

The bond price has skyrocketed over the last six days and the real yield for the 10 year tips has dropped to 0.18%. The five-year tips real yield is now negative. This makes no sense to me given the prospects of hundreds of billions of dollars of additional government spending but the market does not have to make sense.



I don’t

While not my expectation, I’m okay with it. The funds for my .625 TIPS will be withdrawn today. I also got 26-week T-Bills at 3.005. I’m praying that the Fed guvnuhs don’t get too weak-kneed before then.

To mix metaphors, this may strengthen their spine

An inflation gauge that the Federal Reserve uses as its primary barometer jumped to its highest 12-month gain in more than 40 years in June, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 6.8%, the biggest 12-month move since the 6.9% increase in January 1982. The index rose 1% from May, tying its biggest monthly gain since February 1981.


To me, that’s a good sign that the recession, and lowering of interest rates, won’t be recognized until well after the election, probably the end of the first quarter.


There is going to be a retroactive recognition of it, but until November everything is peachy!


Aren’t recessions always recognized slightly late and retroactively? I mean, we might no longer be in a recession (assuming we’re even in one using the “GDP-only” definition), but we won’t know until October :smile:

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:sunny: Before we be daancin in the streets, I need peachiness to last until Feb 1. :

Interesting developments in the T-bond market as of August 3, 2022.

A yield curve inversion: two-year rate is 3.13% while ten year rate is 2.76%

The breakeven inflation from the five year tips and nominal is 2.9% - 0.15% = 2.75%


That’s a little bigger than the other recent inversions. Certainly a positive sign for a negative economy.


To quote Shakespeare I think, Beware the ides of September. Right now all the summer interns are having fun buying the stock market but when the regulars return in September things could turn down.

PS I like the double negative

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BoE raising rates on record inflation, as it forecasts a not-mild recession…


Harry Sit’s usual clear explanation of how to buy treasury bills at auction at Fidelity Vanguard and Schwab

How To Buy Treasury Bills & Notes Without Fee at Online Brokers