It’s normal to be warm in june. It’s record heat across the South. But then record highs are normal for the USA with climate change effects.
Record colds in the northern states and record heat in the rest.
July has been absurd here.
I agree the weather may or may not have anything to do with it. But I can’t imagine people voluntarily going outside for anything locally when it was 109 yesterday.
Home sales very much vary by region. When you are looking at a nationwide number, a change of less than 3% in either direction doesn’t really tell you that much.
In my neck of the woods, homes are often sitting on the market for a week, with folks getting full price offers after the first weekend. You barely see open houses around here anymore.
No, no, no, no. That’s completely wrong, and completely nonsensical.
First, for decades and decades and decades, every year home sales have routinely increased as the monthly temperatures rise, and decreased as the monthly temperatures fall.
As I previously mentioned ^, that is why you cannot compare one month of home sales following another, as they routinely rise or fall. As established by the ‘National Association of Realtors’, the correct contrast is to the same month of the previous year.
So, April home sales is routinely up, May home sales is routinely up more than April, and June home sales is routinely up more than May, and so on, like climbing stairs.
Yet we have existing home sales DOWN for the third month in a row.
THIS IS HUGE.
These are peak months for existing home sales.
(As to the industry claiming the decline in April was due to abnormally cold and stormy weather, that should have shifted even more sales into May, which should have been even stronger than normal, but sales were down again.)
FWIW, very anecdotal evidence, but I live in one of the hottest markets in the country right now, Seattle. About 8 months ago, the townhouse adjacent to mine sold for a king’s ransom after being on the market for 4 days.
There are currently three units for sale right now, in a complex of 71. One is nearly identical to the one that sold 8 months ago, and it has been on the market over 50 days now. Inventory has shot up. Buyers are becoming pickier.
I, for one, welcome this change. We are looking to upgrade to a SFH eventually and frankly I don’t mind taking a hit on our townhome (which has already more than doubled in value since I bought it in 2009) if it means I’ll pay a more reasonable amount for a house.
I just want to be sure I’m following. Are you saying home sales in the country in June 2018 were down compared to April AND May 2018?
Or
Home sales in June 2018 were down compared to June 2017?
If it’s the first, I see what you are saying and agree that is significant if indeed home sales in a healthy market should have gone up as part of the normal cycle by over 5%.
However, it COULD be particular parts of the country driving the decrease while other parts remain healthy. I haven’t looked at any numbers, but anecdotally, it seems heathly near me.
It is easier just to google yesterdays news then try and debate one out of Joe.
Also anecdotally, I’ve seen similar signs of a slowing market here in the Portland area. Portland has also been one of the hottest markets in the past few years.
The house a cross the street from mine hasn’t even sold and its been a full 2 weeks.
1-2 years ago there would have been multiple offers bidding up asking within 24 hrs of opening.
BOTH.
Eh, the discussion WAS in regards to ‘EXISTING HOME SALES’, but now that you’ve mentioned it:
~ ‘New Home Sales’ down 5.3% in June
~ May ‘New Home Sales’ revised downward
~ Mortgage applications for New Homes dropped 9%
Interesting. I wonder if it’s going to slow down here soon.
HEre’s our situation :
I think this graphic captures the context a bit better:
So yeah its slowing down in SEattle & Portland but thats only after blowing past national averages for 3 years.
And slowing down still means the “cheap” sub $350k homes in Portland are going up 9% a year and you “only” get 1-2 offers at ask when you list. No home cooked plate of cookies from buyers looking for that extra edge and an average of 6 offers with everyone bidding up ask by 5 figures.
Something unexpected is happening here… the upward trend is stalling and inventory is increasing. Not sure why though. It is dramatic enough to be visible by looking at Zillow, for example, to see houses now sitting on the listing for a while and more house are showing up.
My neighbor’s “pending” transaction falls through and it’s now back on the market. Supposedly they couldn’t get financing for the fix-upper.
So, maybe this will make more people to put house on the market waiting for the “top”… who knows.
The house had an offer in ~3.5 weeks.
Previously my neighbors would have multiple offers within a week.
Of course there have been a couple major developments in our zip code with dozens of new homes built. I’m sure that new supply is impacting the market locally.
Home-builders confidence hit an 11 month low in July.
July home construction WAY down (up 0.9%, but experts stated it should have been up 8%).
I’m really not sure how much of a local thing this is, but I’ve mainly only seen 3 types of homes being built in my SW Washington area in the last 3 years: higher end 4/3 or 5/3 homes, larger complexes for govt’ assistance apartments, or retirement facility complexes. This seems to me like it supports the building issue at hand. Either it’s government subsidized housing, more affordable retirement housing for the growing retirement community, or the only thing profitable that builders can actually justify building.
That’s interesting, and is not quite what I’ve seen in the Carolinas, where it’s balls to the wall on tract homes of all sizes, and similar quality custom homes. HIgher priced custom homes have some demand but nothing like the $250k to $350k tract homes. Retirement communities are also far from affordable, at least for my budget. The HOA fees alone are bigger than my first mortgage payments. I am not familiar with how the government assistance market is faring.
I am amazed at how quickly several hundred acres of woods are cut, dug, dozed, paved, and built. I’m also amazed at the lack of foresight by city and county officials. 
Homebuilder Lennar says their building new homes like gangbusters, of course they’re $850K and up. Guess the millionaires and billionaires that got 90% of the tax cut can afford it.
Existing-home sales tumble to a 2½-year low as buyers give up
The numbers: Existing-home sales ran at a 5.34 million seasonally-adjusted annual rate in July, down 0.7% versus June, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. That was the lowest pace since February 2016, and missed the MarketWatch consensus forecast of 5.40 million.
Does anyone know what the bogus “seasonal adjustments” are in summer?
~ That’s the fourth straight monthly decline in Existing Home sales.
~ July New Home sales down 1.7%
