Q1’19 performance - total returns for the year to date.
QQQ 17% tech stocks
IWM 15% smallcaps
SPY 14% large caps
EFA 10% foreign stocks (developed)
EEM 10% foreign stocks (emerging markets)
JNK 8% junk bonds
BTC 8% bitcoin
BND 3% bonds
GLD 1% gold
Everyone’s a winner! Just the opposite of 2018, where everything but cash was down, some more than others.
Took slightly longer than 3 months for AAPL from $142 to back over $200.
Now my IB accounts are up around 100% from low in Jan this year, but still down around 40% from Jan '18. Still a ways to go.
Not planning to touch any of my AAPL leaps for at least 6-9 more months. Earliest dated are 2x Jun '20. The rest are in '21.
Looking “happy” I sold most of F in Jan at ~$8… (went from $9.37 to $10.18 after ER today)… consolation is where i moved funds (AAPL) is up 50%. But the AAPL options were expensive. Plus it sucked some of my F options expiring worthless.
Also today, MSFT $1T.
Edit: Wow. F at $10.35. $1 up from near closing.
Small short term earnings bet, naked short 2 puts.
First short term since pain in January.
Edit:Looking good! I should have bought more calls instead of the 2 naked puts. Overall from -$5k to +$15k for the day in a second or two.
Well that settles it - UBER is clearly better than LYFT. They only lost 8% on the first day for IPO investors, while LYFT lost 11% and is now down 30% from their $72 IPO price. UBER IPOed at $45 and is now in the $41s.
The bottom line w/ stocks is I like to see a chart (5 years+) that is trending upwards, not downwards.
Short term AAPL $200 bet, I bought 2x this friday 187.50 calls for ~$1 each.
Did you take partial profits yesterday? I hope …
Should have. Oh well.
Q2’19 performance, total returns year to date:
| ticker | type | Q2 | YTD’19 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | bitcoin | 189.00% | 220.00% |
| QQQ | tech | 4.00% | 22.00% |
| SPY | large caps | 4.00% | 18.00% |
| IWM | smallcaps | 2.00% | 17.00% |
| EFA | foreign (developed) | 4.00% | 14.00% |
| JNK | junk bonds | 2.00% | 11.00% |
| EEM | foreign (emerging) | 5.00% | 10.00% |
| GLD | gold | 9.00% | 10.00% |
| BND | bonds | 3.00% | 6.00% |
Let’s hear it for the bitcoin bulls! Even gold put up a decent showing in Q2, but again it was a case of everything being up, just a question of how much.
Fruit phone sales off 12% YoY but overall sales up 1% YoY.
Phone’s were actually under 50% of sales (!)
Q3’19 recap, total returns. Some numbers might be slightly off, had more trouble than usual getting them this time.
| ticker | type | Q3 | YTD’19 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | bitcoin | -31% | +117% |
| QQQ | tech | 0% | +22% |
| SPY | large caps | +1% | +19% |
| GLD | gold | +4% | +14% |
| IWM | smallcaps | -3% | +13% |
| EFA | foreign (developed) | -3% | +11% |
| JNK | junk bonds | 0% | +11% |
| BND | bonds | +2% | +9% |
| EEM | foreign (emerging) | -6% | +4% |
Broadly it was a flat to slightly down quarter for equities (depending on which), while safer assets, like fixed income and gold, saw gains.
New AAPL 52 high (div adjusted). Up 61% from jan 3 low.
IB acct up ~160% from Jan '19 low, still off about 30% from Jan '18. Thinking about maybe selling 5-10% of my AAPL exposure.
You could sell some calls if you’re on the fence, hedge a bit that way.
9% for BND. That’s quite a move.
That’s mostly what I own now, just deep ITM LEAP calls. Still holding out for 250 I think. Still one of my 20 calls (200 strike jun '20) is slightly red
Still currently holding all the AAPL exposure… need to set a target to remove some. IMO, AAPL looks near fair value at this point.
My stock+retirement accounts today finally just matched their prior peaks from Jan last year, still down by net deposits/contributions.
Account values:
(without adjustments for deposits/withdrawals)
Date - Taxable - IRA - 403 - Total
2018-01-11 300k 40k 160k 500k (Max)
2019-01-02 _84k 11k 157k 250k (Minimum since)
2019-11-04 222k 66k 212k 500k (Now)
Net deposit 8k 16.5k 41k
2019-11-04 214k 50k 171k 435k
Sold today @ 392.
2019 recap, total returns. Everyone’s a winner!
| ticker | type | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | bitcoin | +84% |
| QQQ | tech | +37% |
| SPY | large caps | +29% |
| IWM | smallcaps | +23% |
| GLD | gold | +18% |
| EFA | foreign (developed) | +18% |
| EEM | foreign (emerging) | +15% |
| JNK | junk bonds | +9% |
| BND | bonds | +6% |
Stocks had, shall we say, a friendly mark at the end of last year with the 2018 selloff, so their recovery from that point is less impressive if you held them from earlier rather than just buying with new money at the start of this past year.
