Inflation/stagflation Thread

Indeed. They just won’t own it, and here’s a nice graphic to that effect.

See no inflation, hear no inflation, speak no inflation.

https://www.axios.com/republicans-inflation-democrats-a69e03c9-2691-4b9c-b18a-b40f0d680e58.html

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Meanwhile, let’s hate on Russia a bit more. I’m sure we’re willing for the EU to pay the price in euros, while the Ukrainians pay the price in blood.

  • OIL MAY HIT $185 IF EU BANS ALL RUSSIAN OIL IMMEDIATELY: JPM

Also, I understand “want pipeline,” but why do we “need pipeline?” How much does it really cost per delivered unit of the final product vs trains or ships or whatever else?

How much consideration did you give this comment before posting?

Moving oil products by train is incredibly dangerous compared to other methods.

While there are plenty of right-of-way issues in establishing where to build a pipeline, in terms of the risks of actually moving the liquid, there is no option that remotely compares in terms of the safety and functionality.

(and as Shinobi noted, a pipeline is how you transport the product, refined or crude, to ships in the first place to move it internationally – unless you’re suggesting that shorter pipelines to send oil tankers down the Mississippi river in higher quantity is somehow better than establishing longer pipelines that reach refineries in the delta)

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???

Actually I mentioned that. And I mentioned Secretary Buttigieg himself has testified to the relative safety of pipeline when it comes to moving oil and natural gas. What we have here is Biden blithely ignoring the counsel of his OWN Transportation Secretary!!

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Actually I mentioned that

Yes, sorry, typed the wrong “s-name” :stuck_out_tongue: (corrected the post)

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more Fed comments. aiming for low 2%'s “longer term” and possibly need to go higher to fend off present high inflation they let get out of control.

  • FED’S EVANS: IF WE UNDERTAKE A COUPLE OF 50 BASIS POINT RISES, WE MAY GET TO A 2.25%-2.5% NEUTRAL RATE BY THE END OF THE YEAR
  • FED’S EVANS: IF WE DON’T SEE INFLATION COMING DOWN, WE ARE GOING TO RAISE RATES ABOVE NEUTRAL
  • FED’S EVANS: MY EXPECTATION IS THAT WE’LL NEED TO RAISE RATES ABOVE NEUTRAL
  • FED’S EVANS: IF INFLATION REACCELERATED, THAT WOULD BE A CAUSE OF GREAT CONCERN
  • FED’S EVANS: WANT TO ADJUST THE BALANCE SHEET VERY CAREFULLY

Here are the most likely rates for each meeting, based on market price based probabilities.

You can see the expected case is 0.5% hikes for 3 meetings and then 0.25% more each one after until 3.25%.

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It is being done all the time everywhere, is it not?

I figure once an oil or gas deposit is found, they’re gonna pump and transport it by any means available, not wait to build a pipeline.

It is being done all the time everywhere, is it not?

I figure once an oil or gas deposit is found, they’re gonna pump and transport it by any means available, not wait to build a pipeline.

Just because moving oil by rail is “done all the time”, because the infrastructure already exists, does NOT mean, not-even-remotely, that it is the “best”, safest, or most efficient (in terms of cost-per-capacity) way to do it long-term.

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Yes. I imagine getting water at my house via the tap is much more efficient than a tanker truck coming by periodically.

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Let’s all remember that oil prices havent skyrocketed lately because of issues moving it from point A to point B. Prices are up due to scarcity, having effectively removed 10% of global supply from the market. Unless we’re talking about a secret underground pipeline to pump Russian oil to Alaska where it can then be sold as ‘domestic’ oil, more delivery infrastructure wouldnt do a damn thing to oil prices right now.

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That isn’t entirely accurate. (yes the price jump is scarcity – but the ability to mitigate scarcity is both a matter of raw production AND infrastructure)

I thought I had both read, and heard reported that LNG is transportation-infrastructure-constrained. (i.e. limited ship-terminal capacity and limited lng-carrying ships) Meaning we have less capability to offset Russian LNG in the European market than we otherwise would.

Oil is a bit of a different matter, since you get into stuff like needing the right blend of sweet and sour grades of crude to maximize the efficiency of the available refineries. (i.e. without the right blend of inputs, you may not be running at truly full capacity) I haven’t read much about what oil (source and grade) would have been using the pipeline in question.

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I guess if this perspective prompts some people to do what they should’ve been doing all along, so be it. But credit card Cashback doesn’t really have anything to do with the costs of inflation.

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You read and heard right. Big time.

We have a 200 year supply of natural gas here in the USA. It’s overwhelming. But we do not have the pipeline needed to get the natural gas where it needs to go in the volumes required today.

My personally owned natural gas exists on two separate horizons separated vertically by roughly a bit more than one mile. My upper horizon natural gas has barely been scratched so far, but it is leased. My lower horizon natural gas is not even leased, and is unlikely to be leased during my lifetime.

There is SO MUCH natural gas “up top”, only a mile down, that they don’t even need the lower reserve and will not need it, I suspect, for many years long after I’m dead and buried.

But overall America’s natural gas reserves are stunning and overwhelming. This is why members of the climate change church work so hard to kill pipeline. They know once it becomes available that energy prices will never rise to the level they need to bring their renewables dreams to fruition.

ETA

Incidentally, as an aside:

Every church needs a devil. In the climate change church that devil’s name is George P. Mitchell, one of the greatest American inventors who ever lived. Only reason you don’t know his name is because he is so hated by the people who control what you read, view, and think.

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My personally owned natural gas exists on two separate horizons separated vertically by roughly a bit more than one mile. My upper horizon natural gas has barely been scratched so far, but it is leased. My lower horizon natural gas is not even leased, and is unlikely to be leased during my lifetime.

So please excuse my ignorance on the subject – but how do leasing rights “work” for underground liquid or gaseous deposits, where someone could lease access from your neighbor and “drink your milkshake” (to quote There Will Be Blood)?

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And I never claimed any of that. I only asked what’s the actual difference in cost.

You take me back. Thanks, it is fun. I was wrestling with such things circa 2007 through 2010. I have written voluminously on this, back then. Look up the “Rule of Capture” if you want to learn about such stuff.

Thing is, in unfracked shale having limited permeability, a landowner does not lose a whole lot of natural gas that way. So it’s not a huge worry.

But the Rule of Capture goes WAY back in American history, back to a time when settlers were dynamiting water wells in an effort to stimulate production. In those olden times, sure, you could tap into your neighbor’s water reserves and it was all quite legal. I must have worried over the Rule of Capture for a couple of years before I finally was able to wrap my head around it. But I doubt many participants here, if they do not own land, have much interest in it.

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I only asked what’s the actual difference in cost.

First hit on Google is a forbes article that says:

  • pipeline ranges between $2-$4 per barrel
  • rail transport typically costs “2 - 5 times” pipeline transport
  • barge “varies significantly” by distances, but is commonly cheaper than rail and more expensive than pipeline

New upper horizon just six feet away :ghost:

My question was about the final product. So $8-20 per barrel of oil is like 10-20 cents per gallon at the pump. Not enough to make a significant difference at the current levels.

It is done acre by acre. They pay you a bonus for each acre leased at time of signing, then they pay you a royalty as product is extracted, year after year into the future. The royalty depends on the value of natural gas they produce. Payments are made each month. Mine arrive via ACH.

My own lease is somewhat unusual, I suppose because I did a LOT of homework and negotiated it personally instead of using a lawyer. But the gas company is forbidden all surface activity, and they cannot drill my land in any manner within 1500 feet of the surface. The three vertical wells which tap my gas are all at least a mile away, and their associated horizontals are all at least 5000 feet deep through solid rock.

Bottom line, the impact on life here on the surface is zero, aside from the income. :wink:

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