Inflation/stagflation Thread

I agree that per gallon it is a relatively small difference.

Safety is a much bigger concern, since even if rail accidents are rare, the end result is completely catastrophic

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But none of that is a factor in the price of a barrel of oil. And the price of that barrel of oil is what has pushed prices at the pump higher. There has been no supply disruption, it’s all flowing through the same distribution system it flowed through last month and last year. Pipelines may be more efficient at transporting, but that efficiency only helps the bottom line of those doing the transporting. It’s the number of buyers wanting the oil that sets the barrel price.

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We had a natural gas well across the road from my childhood home. Supposedly we received small payments from it, not because we owned the land but due to the proximity to our house.

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It’s not ownership of land that necessarily matters. It is ownership of the mineral rights. If that well had been unitized at an earlier time, prior to a subdivision of land, it is possible your family’s land remained within the unit, even though the well no longer sat on surface land you owned.

My own land lies within three separate and distinct drilling units. When product is produced anywhere within those units, even though from beneath land I do not own, I collect royalties. This is because, again, I am unitized with those other landowners. It works the other way around as well. When product is extracted from my own land, other landowners within my unit share in the royalties to an extent depending on the terms of their individual leases.

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Biden’s foreign policy fiasco continues to America’s unending detriment

Whether Biden asks or does not ask, it makes little difference. Nobody respects him. All are aware he is a hopeless cipher.

  • The White House has given up asking Saudi Arabia to pump more oil, The Wall Street Journal reported.
  • The US has tried to get more Saudi oil since it banned Russian energy over the Ukraine war.
  • US-Saudi relations are at a new low.

ETA

Oh geez it’s even worse than I thought:

Biden is pursuing his hopeless quest at America’s expense. He is not going to change the situation in Saudi Arabia. But by continuing to piss off the Saudis he can harm America and the free world. Biden’s self-evident inability to practice realpolitik comes at an unacceptably high price.

  • MBS suggested cozying up to Russia and China to punish Biden for sidelining him, The WSJ reported.
  • As president, Biden has criticized Saudi Arabia’s human-rights record and hasn’t met MBS in person.
  • MBS and King Salman met last year to discuss how to get back at Biden for the slights, The WSJ said.
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Biden and inflation: Two peas in the same pod.

Bidenomics: Saving the planet tomorrow while destroying lives today

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The disastrous Iran deal that Biden’s handlers are hell-bent on passing is a lot to do with us. If Congress cannot stop it, there will almost certainly be a nuclear war in the Middle East as Israel cannot allow a nuclear armed Iran.

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Food and related knock on effects of the war. Ukraine looks like they’ve only planted 25% of their normal crops.

UKRAINE’S DEPUTY AGRICULTURE MINISTER SAYS UKRAINIAN FARMERS HAVE SOWN OVER 3 MLN HECTARES OF LAND AS OF THURSDAY, OUT OF PLANNED 12 MLN - 13 MLN HECTARES

Covid is likewise screwing up plant cycles / timing in China, where domestic trucking, seed supplies and framers are all having issues with all the covid restrictions and delays.

And the Fed is right on this part too -

  • POWELL: LESS GLOBALIZATION COULD MEAN HIGHER INFLATION, LOWER PRODUCTIVITY
  • POWELL: IS CLEAR THAT GLOBALIZATION HAS SLOWED DOWN, MAY GO INTO REVERSE

= Bidenflation

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Why the CCP may not survive the coming crisis they have caused

While I did not read much of the article, I searched on “military” and “weapon”, and didn’t find either. Thus, I don’t suspect food shortages will bother XiJinPing in the near term. Leftists/Socialists/Progressives/Communists are dictators at heart. As long as they’re in power, the peons, plebes, commoners. little people, are nothing more than fodder.

Holy %#@^!!! (I used 3 exclamation points, so must be a millennial) I hope that he is better at his job than his “pronouncements/quoted comments”. He could have gone out on a limb and said something really profound, like “this is April”.


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Most Americans were not alive the last time inflation was as high as it is right now. And even for those who were, inflation in 2022 is very different than inflation in 1981. The coronavirus pandemic, surging government spending, and other factors have driven prices up, even as the economy itself remains strong by other measures — for now.

The U.S. gross domestic product grew 6.9% in the final quarter of 2021, but that boom rate is slowing, raising the dangerous specter of stagflation.

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Is inflation over, and deflation setting in? That same bread was once again $1 yesterday.

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commentary from Einhorn’s big hedge fund

The good news, to the extent there is any, is that year-over-year inflation will likely fall for a bit from the current 8.5% rate. Some goods that saw prices spike rather dramatically, like used cars, are already declining. At the end of the quarter, the inflation swap market projected 5.3% inflation over the next year followed by 3.3% the year after. However, this is up from year-end expectations of 3.6% and 3.0%, respectively.

We believe the policy response to high energy prices is likely to lead to even higher energy prices. The U.S. government has chosen to subsidize demand by granting gas tax holidays and releasing strategic oil reserves, while continuing to thwart supply by demonizing producers, criticizing windfall profits, stifling investment in energy infrastructure and threatening extra taxes. Notably, energy prices feed into food prices. Agriculture is quite energy intensive and natural gas – which is at elevated prices and in short supply – is a key input into fertilizer. So, we remain bullish on future upside surprises to inflation.

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NYMEX WTI crude is well south of $100 because of the China lockdowns.

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article from a good newsletter / author on what hedges inflation and what (most things) don’t or at least don’t cleanly - stocks do well, usually, but can sell off for other reasons. TIPS protect from inflation, but have interest rate risk too and that’s relevant now, etc.

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-got-you-down-at-least-you-dont-live-in-argentina-11650898676

With the peso falling and inflation rising, workers are increasingly paid and are saving in cryptocurrency. “They prefer the volatile asset of bitcoin as opposed to the peso, where they know they will always lose,” said Damian Di Pace of Focus Market Consultancy in Buenos Aires.

Argentines who haven’t caught the bitcoin bug go for other, often-times inventive ways to stretch their beleaguered peso.

RaĂșl Ramos, 36, a construction worker, said he and his wife look out for sales at the giant Carrefour store they like.

“I come to Carrefour to look for sales of 25% to 50%,” he said, explaining that at the start of the school year everything from books to knapsacks to notebooks were three times higher in price than a year before. “I don’t do it to save. I do it so I have money at the end of the month. I’m used to the struggle.”

BTW was not paywalled

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Yeah, but standby. At the rate we are going it won’t be long. :frowning_face:

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supply chains not so hot

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-04-25/china-s-covid-crisis-threatens-global-supply-chain-chaos-for-summer-2022

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Domestic drilling? Oil independence is overrated, especially with our friends like Mohammed “Bonesaw” bin Salman Al Saud.

[the] decision will shrink the amount of land available for lease in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska

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Why keep our wealth at home, when we can instead pay inflated prices to pad other countries’ pockets when refilling our strategic reserve?

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