Good observation, glitch99. At least your observation agrees with my gut, however fallible my gut might be.
I wrote a post earlier and then cancelled it because it was too political. You make a political statement around here and it only leads to disagreements and bad feelings.
But look, interest rates are a function of, among other things, American economic activity. When the economy is humming there is a higher demand for money. Interest rates are the price of borrowed money. It’s supply and demand. When demand for money rises, so does the price (interest rate) provided the supply is not otherwise inflated (e.g., by the Fed). And right now the Fed is pulling in its horns just a bit (QE ended a while back).
Point is not all powerful political entities in the USA benefit when the economy is humming. A good and growing economy, right now beneath the present leadership, is BAD for the other side wanting to win an election this fall.
Ask yourself: how is the stock market doing? “Tariffs” you cry. Yeah, but it’s not all tariffs. The market was going sideways before the tariff issue came to the fore. There are forces out there not wanting to put America first. But America first is exactly what it takes for a booming American economy and higher interest rates… And right now Mexico (as just one example among many), and its millions of American allies in both political parties, is winning, America is losing big time, and interest rates are not where they should be. To wit:
Many people today are pointing to threat of an inverted yield curve. What is another way to look at that? I say it points to doubts about the near term (i.e., within five years) future. Borrowers (financial institutions) are not willing to commit to paying a high rate of interest over that time frame because they are uncertain today’s great economic expansion has legs. Why the uncertainty? See what I just wrote, above. When large numbers of Americans are embarrassed by American economic success and dominance in the world, well, “Houston we have a problem”. Those same people, who oppose putting America first, are acting in ways which could derail the current American economic boom. Borrowers, sadly, are well aware of this opposition.
I think today’s threatened inverted yield curve accurately reflects borrowers’ analysis of American economic circumstances at present. Specifically:
Right now, and for the near term going forward, things continue to look good. This merits paying more for borrowed money in the shorter run. But out beyond this fall’s elections there is uncertainty and doubt about where we are headed. And that circumstance does not mitigate in favor higher interest rates at, for example, five years.
Bottom line I view politics and interest rates as being inextricably linked. Same goes for politics and the stock market. It’s a fact of life in a country today so politically divided as we are.