You point out the difficulties with subsidies and rebates so I’m sure you agree that the government should stay out of it and let the free market decide
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Not in the absolute. I’ve been persuaded that the EV tax credit is regressive, so I’m opposed to it now. But I have not been persuaded that government should not invest in or subsidize early and promising R&D.
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Subsidizing R&D is one thing. Subsequently promoting the resulting prodcuts (even when they’ve yet to fully materialize) while intentionally handcuffing the competition to make their desired products appear viable is where the real issues start.
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Good and even handed article:
The automotive world in 2021 is experiencing a proliferation of technologies. It is similar to the dawn of the automotive age, over a century ago, when early vehicles were powered by electricity, gasoline, and steam. Today, if the government gets out of the way, personal transportation appliances may find themselves in an intoxicating ferment of new ideas and technologies reminiscent of the early days.
Over the next few decades, car designs are destined to proliferate beyond recognition. They will often be modular, with detachable passenger compartments that can either drive on roads with a wheeled “skateboard” power unit sitting underneath, or they can be hauled through the air with an aerial drone unit attached to the top. On demand, they will drive themselves, allowing occupants to engage in activities no different from what people might do in any stationary room. Some of them will convoy in special lanes at speeds approaching that of high speed rail. And they may utilize fuels and power plants that we cannot yet imagine.
Without first resolving the global energy challenges that currently make increased use of fossil fuel inevitable, it is mere posturing to limit the choice of vehicle technologies to emissions-free EVs. Adaptation and innovation, in all forms and in all sectors, without the limitations of mandated solutions, is the quickest path towards a new and sustainable energy and transportation future.
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This video from SNL on the Mercedes “AA class” is funny. Particularly the scene at the end at the “quick battery change station.” Yes I know it’s from 2016 but no one on this thread has explained how we’re going to make and charge the batteries for the electric cars if they are more than a few percent of the cars sold.
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The spin:
The reality:
MIT professor Rodney Brooks
Regardless of what you might think about AI, the reality is that just about every successful deployment has either one of two expedients: It has a person somewhere in the loop, or the cost of failure, should the system blunder, is very low.
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Son of a gun it happened. The interesting thing is that the stock price of Tesla has skyrocketed. This article tries to find an explanation. It looks like the theory is Tesla will lose $$ on each car, but make it up in volume.
but they can withstand the losses better than their smaller rivals.
In 2023, Tesla accounted for 55% of total US EV sales. As the dominant player in the market, Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley noted earlier this year that consolidation was coming to weaker EV rivals of Tesla.
Musk’s key to winning the EV price war appears to hinge on supporting Trump, whose position on cutting EV subsidies would only crush the competition, whether small EV startups or legacy OEMs. This means Tesla will easily defend its market share and remain dominant.
Edit. Stock price of TSLA over last 6 months
Tesla’s worst nightmare is the super cheap EVs from China. He needs those tariffs.
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European carmakers can testify to that.
The tarrifs will even the playing field for Tesla’s American competitors also. China’s mercantilism is well known.
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- The Trump administration plans to relax regulations on self-driving cars, a move that could significantly benefit Tesla.
- Tesla’s stock price has surged in response to the news, with analysts predicting further growth.
- The end of the EV tax credit and plans for 400 Starship launches further solidify Tesla and SpaceX’s positions in their respective markets.
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Considering the already slowing demand trajectory lately, cutting the subsidies may just get people back to purchasing ICE vehicles, especially for the non-luxury segment (sub $40k).
Tesla was already losing ground on BYD (and other Chinese manufacturers) there without retaliatory tariffs… with 40% (or whatever US imposes on China and Europe) matching retaliatory tariffs, will the higher US sales make up for the losses in other global markets?
For perspective, in 2023, Tesla sold about 650k vehicles in the US, 600k in China, and 60k in Europe.
Doesn’t Tesla builds their cars in the same region / market as where they sell those cars? Tariffs won’t impact them negatively.
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I assumed they just assembled the cars in China and did not source the materials locally. If they completely manufactured them locally without importing raw materials and pre-assembled parts, then you’re right, tariffs wouldn’t hurt them too much.
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A recent article in the New York Times highlights this perfectly:](Automakers Want Trump to Keep Federal E.V. Regulations in Place - The New York Times)
“But they have already invested billions in a transition to electric vehicles, and fear that if Mr. Trump made an abrupt change as he has promised, they could be undercut by automakers who sell cheaper, gas-powered cars.”
Edit. The predictable result of the woke car companies stupidity
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Some truth to consumer demand. But like Henry Ford said if I were to ask customers what they want, they’d ask for faster horses.
F does not build good cars. TSLA is a different story (EV success)
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It’s writing like this that makes me think Elon’s hidden agenda is to get conservatives onboard with EV & PV.
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I don’t know if this is accurate, but I read elsewhere that the supply chain is so complex, that this is not necessarily true. (holy run-on sentence, batman!) The example given was some businesses that were shuttered during the pandemic that were ‘built in America’ but still impacted. I don’t remember all of the details, and I am certainly not knowledgeable in this area.
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If they can produce vehicles that are competitive with gasoline powered cars, I’m open to them. The stupidity of the car companies is that they are producing today’s limited electric cars that are in no way competitive then relying on government subsidies and mandates to sell them
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