Electric car investment opportunities beyond Tesla

The thing is, Henry Ford knew his cars were a huge step up in performance over horses.

EVs are still cars… They carry the same people at the same speed limit, in the same traffic jams, etc. Just more expensive than equivalent ICE ones.

So the case for replacing perfectly fine ICE cars by a $50k EV that may be a hassle to find public chargers for away from home still needs to be made for a lot of consumers.

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I bought my Model 3 for 35K- 7.5K tax credit NEW in '19. Still drives like new and gets software updates. Great ride, sound. I do have a home charger and TSLA’s network is tough to beat.

It is not a great road trip car, but great around the city. see https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/things-i-dont-miss-about-gas-vehicles.317583/

And what makes the car companies “woke?”

actually EV is cheaper than ICE cars after $7500.

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I have not seen evidence of that for equivalent vehicles. On the contrary. Or maybe only in states which provide additional EV subsidies.

Taking the Hyundai Kona 2024 as example of identical ICE vs EV vehicles, MSRP for ICE base model is $24250 while MSRP for electric model is $32675. So even with $7500 subsidy, the purchase price of the EV is still about $1k more than that of the ICE model.

The other issue is lack of affordable options for some categories. For midsize sedans, the ubiquitous Camry and Accord MSRPs start around $28k. Hyundai Ioniq 6 MSRP starts at $38k. Model 3 MSRP starts at $42.5k. Everything else (BMW, Lucid, etc) in the midsize sedan category are way over $50k. When ordering a Model 3, the base model includes $7500 subsidy and arguable $5k 5-yr gas savings to get it to the $30k price quoted. Without subsidies, I think the $7500-higher price gap would be too steep for many buyers who won’t like a breakeven point of 8+ yrs.

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California taxpayers will be paying for this through higher taxes. Note fees=taxes

Funding for the rebates would come via cap-and-trade fees under California’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.

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And in typical Democrat spite, excluding Musk’s Tesla from the state tax credit is more important than advancing Climate Justice.

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/political-stunt-tesla-exclusion-from-state-ev-tax-credit-proposal-pits-san-jose-mayor-against-newsom/

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Biden is trying to flush the last of his budget down the drain before he leaves, and that includes both Ukraine and green energy loans. Pricy EV maker and large loss making company Rivian stands to get $7b.

Rivian was unable to meet production and sales targets and rapidly burned through cash. In March, the company said it would pause construction of the Georgia plant.

The loan program, created in 2007, requires a “reasonable prospect of repayment” of the loan. Under Biden, the program has announced deals totaling $33.3 billion

I forgot to check if Paul Pelosi bought some options ahead of this government move, but it sure was good for the stock.

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We’re going to see some noise in October and November, and I expect that EV demand is going to drop off pretty precipitously,” General Motors CFO Paul Jacobson said during an investor event earlier this month. “We need to let it settle and understand where is that natural demand going and how do we meet that natural demand and ultimately try to lead customers to electric vehicles. That’s going to take a little bit of time.”

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TSLA share price is near an all-time high

I’m not even sure it’s 100% natural demand considering some states have their own incentives still even if the Federal ones are gone.

I imagine at the high end (above threshold to qualify for Fed credits), we’ve already seen that natural demand level.

Natural demand could also be elastic based on gas prices vs. electricity prices. At under $3/gal here, I’m not exactly in a rush to replace my 8-yr old ICE Camry. Maybe give it another 10 years or so.

Given that climate, I don’t know how Tesla can be a buy at 200+ forward PE. It makes nvidia look like bargain bin stock.

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