We’re considering buying a new 2021 Toyota Sienna this week, at MSRP (+ $700 worthless interior/exterior protector and $400 floor mats). Normally, I would say this is a terrible idea. But here I am with car inventories incredibly limited, Siennas in very high demand, the factory to be idled for at least couple weeks at the end of the month, and 2022 Sienna pricing and orders not available yet.
Since there’s no way I’m getting a typical end-of-model-year discount on this, I’m trying to estimate how much less this van will be worth at sale/trade in several years, compared to a similar 2022 model I might (wishfully) be able to buy two months from now. I can’t find any data on this, though.
Is it just a straight up full extra year of depreciation (minus a bit for mileage adjustment)? Put another way, what’s the break-even discount one needs to see to make buying an end-of-model-year car a decent idea?