I-Bonds Discussion Thread (continuation of the FW thread)

So are you saying they compared the registration name you created on TreasuryDirect with the actual name of the trust when you were opening the account? I would think there is no way for them to identify the name of your trust while undergoing their identity check during the account opening process. Are you saying the registration name you created was in accord with the examples they give in their instructions for setting up the account? You didn’t make a mistake or didn’t follow their instructions? Was this a joint trust with two trustees or were you the only trustee?

I’m assuming I made a mistake. They didn’t say. I’m the grantor and trustee, with my spouse as the beneficiary.

The identity fail is almost certainly because all my bureaus plus Chex are frozen due a recent identity theft.

If I open any more, I’ll follow their lead on the registration, but with a different date.

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So are you saying you should have said “I’m the grantor and trustee, with my spouse as the beneficiary” but you ended up doing something differently, not according to their instructions or examples.

Can you tell me how you registered the account when you opened it and what the mistake was.

No. It’s been two months and while I did follow their instructions I don’t know the error. I think the only difference was I didn’t have “udt” in it,

I think I followed this format… “John Doe, Trustee under Declaration of Trust dated January 1, 2001” from their templates.

Sorry. That’s all I’ve got for you.

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Inflation is sizzling hot, for 3 months we have 3.06%, based on today’s report of CPI-U. IF that will continue - next rate will be around 12%

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June CPI was 1.3%, higher than expected. 1.3% for the month is 17% annualized, just FYI.

  • US Jun Consumer Prices 1.3%; Consensus 1.1%
  • US Jun CPI Ex-Food & Energy 0.7%; Consensus 0.5%
  • US Jun Consumer Prices Increase 9.1% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 5.9% Over Year

market reaction and Fed expectations -

  • FED SWAPS SHOW AROUND 79BP HIKES PRICED IN FOR JULY AFTER CPI
  • U.S. INTEREST RATES FUTURES NOW SEE 80% CHANCE OF ANOTHER 75 BPS HIKE IN SEPT -FEDWATCH
  • U.S. RATE FUTURES PRICING IN 22% CHANCE OF 100 BPS HIKE IN JULY MEETING, 79% OF 75 BPS -FEDWATCH

even if the annual inflation rate begins to inch down from 9.1%, prices will continue to rise across the economy. Don’t be fooled by any claim in coming months that “inflation is under control.”

  • U.S. TIPS BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATES RISE ACROSS THE BOARD AFTER CPI DATA; 1-YEAR UP 21 BPS AT 3.41%, 2-YEAR UP 15.6 BPS AT 3.06%

For I bonds, there’s 3.06% in the bank towards the next 6 months, which is a 6.12% rate if the next 3 months are zero (ha!). If they continue like they have, at a 1%/month average rate, we’ll get about 6% inflation which will mean a 12% annualized rate for the next 6 month period.

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SO & I already funded 2023 “gifts” to be delivered to each other early Jan 2023; thinking seriously about funding gifts for 2024 as well…

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My goodness am I fortunate to have snagged those I bonds earlier this year!

Too bad what’s great for I bonds is so devastating for America. Let’s face fact: not everyone bought I bonds. And the Americans who didn’t still have to live, and they should be entitled to live, too.

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You have until Sept 30, 2022 to buy or gift I-Bonds to get the interest rate for the current and the next 6 month period. I am going to wait to see what the interest rate will be before pulling the trigger.

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Why wait? You already know it’s going to be at least 6.12%.

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If you want to buy them now, that’s fine. My point is if you prefer to wait, there is no penalty or chance of getting a different rate than buying them now. In Sept I will know exactly what the rate is and I can make a more informed decision while considering what other options I may have depending on the economic environment. I may decide there are better alternatives for my money. That’s not likely but why not wait until I know for sure.

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Beside the fact your 12-month minimum holding period doesnt start counting until you do buy them. If inflation comes back under control in a year, you’ll have to wait 3 months longer to get you money out and into other options. Waiting makes you more informed going in, but it also ties your hands longer when wanting out.

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If I get my money out after 12 months, the three money penalty is the same whether I buy them now or in Sept. I guess you could be right that my other options may be different depending on what’s available. But just to correct your math, the middle of Sept is 2 months (not 3 months) from now. And since we can’t know the future, waiting an additional two months might work out to my advantage. Who knows?

You are choosing to earn July 2022 market interest rates on your money, at the cost of not being able to (or not having the option to) earn August 2023 market interest rates on that money. But where you keep the money now has to be short term (so it’s available to buy bonds in September), whereas you’ll have all short and long term rates at your disposal next August.

You are correct that we cant predict the future, but there is still a tradeoff of future flexibility for a little but of extra knowledge.

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Let’s say it is evident by Sept that 5-yr CD rates are collapsing (not predicting that), I might choose to lock in a 5-yr rate then rather than buying additional I-Bonds. At this point, I want to keep my options open since everything is so volatile and uncertain at the moment. Regardless, I will have to make a decision before the end of Sept.

We’ll ignore for a second that 9% for a year plus 4 years of ?% is almost certain to beat 5 years of 3%. :wink:

Conversely, if rates start to collapse next spring, you will be stuck watching them fall for another 3 2 months before you can free up your cash to lock something in long term. Of course it’s just my opinion, but with there still being talk of as high as 1.5%+ in FED rate increases over the next couple months, I highly doubt you are going to get the sign you’re waiting for quick enough, before it’s time to buy the bonds in September anyways. But the quicker you’re in, the quicker you can get out to address such deteriorating conditions.

And just a correction - you have until October 28 to buy bonds under the current terms. The 6-month CPI lookback window that ends Sept 30, will be announced mid-Oct and go into effect Nov 1.

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What if there is a 4% 5-yr CD in Sept and inflation numbers are beginning to diminish? The decision becomes a lot more interesting.

There are infinite amounts of what-ifs. The main point was addressing your statement that there was no penalty to waiting. Waiting a couple months may be your best move, but there is still a cost to doing so.

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That’s even better because the inflation picture should be much clearer than now by the end of October. At least we hope so.

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