Old school advice
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Bump. So hopefully Xerty will tell me if I should sell my stock holdings before the crash happensâŚ
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In some metaverse, Meta stock was up 20% on great earnings. In the real world, FB is -20% and counting.
after the close Wednesday, Meta (FKA Facebook) tanked over 22% on missed earnings and cited that challenges are ahead in the first quarter. Inflation, supply chain disruptions at advertisers and users shifting to products that âmonetize at lower ratesâ are among the key issues the company faces. Revenue in the first quarter will be between $27 billion and $29 billion, while analysts were looking for that number to top $30 billion.
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2022 Q1, total returns. All that glittersâŚ
| ticker | type | 2022 Q1 |
|---|---|---|
| GLD | gold | +7% |
| CPI | inflation (est) | +3% |
| USD | cash | +0% |
| BTC | bitcoin | -4% |
| JNK | junk bonds | -5% |
| SPY | large caps | -5% |
| BND | bonds | -6% |
| PFF | preferreds | -7% |
| EFA | foreign (developed) | -7% |
| IWM | small caps | -8% |
| EEM | foreign (emerging) | -8% |
| QQQ | tech | -9% |
is gold, and everything else turns to lead. For inflation, I estimated for Q1 since we get the last, very likely much higher reading, in 2 more weeks. Jan and Feb were running at around 10-12% annualized rates, so donât let the single quarter 2-3% CPI number lead you into a false sense of security.
I had a somewhat unlucky first quarter, with some hedges that didnât work well as well as an unfortunately timed short squeeze, so I was happy to be doing reasonably well and still solidly positive if not topping these charts. Looking forward, Iâm wondering why I donât have more cheap oil and coal company stocks / futures / optionsâŚ
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Bought some TWTR today on the news of Elonâs 9% stake. It would be hard to be run worse than it is now, and heâs a great stock promoter. Average around $50.
update 4/5: up more this am on the news that Elon will get a board seat, although he agrees not to buy more than 15% as long as he keeps it. Theyâre acting friendly for now.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522095651/d342257d8k.htm
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(for xerty)
Individual stocks, except for mine 
, seem to be holding their own.
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Elon turned down the board seat on TWTR, presumably because it restricted his ability to own more than 15%. Looks promising for Monday.
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Musk buyout offer $54.20 for all of TWTR. I sold around $52 on the news
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922045641/tm2212748d1_sc13da.htm
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Do you think Musk will be successful? Does the other side have way to block him?
You can read some options here on how the mgmt might oppose him. But theyâd look really bad turning down a big buyout premium and he could just start his own and sell his shares or something that would be bad for them.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-12/will-elon-musk-buy-more-twitter
I will probably buy little back at lower prices, since I think it makes a lot of sense for Musk to own TWTR as his public relations platform. Maybe he should get Trump to split the cost 
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I think heâs just doing that to pump the stock with no actual intention to buy Twitter. Timeline goes like this:
- Musk announces heâs buying Twitter to go private quoting a very high purchase price.
- investors rush in to snap up more Twitter share to make a quick $ from the hostile takeover.
- Twitter share price goes up from investor demand
- Musk finds an excuse to not go through with the takeover and sells all his shares faking disappointment/outrage
- Musk uses the profit to launch his own private platform to take on Twitter
He could start his own platform for way less than the $3B he paid for the shares he already has.
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He could start his own platform for way less than the $3B he paid for the shares he already has.
But that would be way less amusing to him than using that $3B to pump-and-dump and start the platform with the premium he earned, while simultaneously taunting the SEC.
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How? The yahoo chart says dayâs high was $48.50.
market opens at 4am, you need to view the âextended hoursâ chart on Yahoo. It was as high as $54. You have to really zoom in to see the highest part of the move, which happened when his proposal was filed around 6:10am.
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TWTR Musk Buyout is officially agreed. Long.
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how long could it take until the final transaction takes place? Thereâs still a discount of few percent in the price.
Not sure. Just says this year in the PR
The transaction, which has been unanimously approved by the Twitter Board of Directors, is expected to close in 2022, subject to the approval of Twitter stockholders, the receipt of applicable regulatory approvals and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions.
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Looks like Elon raised $4B in TSLA sales over the last two days, making his position more secure for the TWTR merger. You can see when the selling started Tues and Wed, and is done now it seems.
I added more TWTR stock around $48, as well as selling lower priced near term puts and some longer term $50 puts (current ITM for the buyer, but hopefully not by the medium term).
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TWTR background
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