My point was that whether the senate is split or not should not matter for the broad market. Both Republicans and Democrats spend like there’s no tomorrow.
Everything is so expensive 
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Markets go down – uncertainty BAD!
Looks like Biden winning, with Democrat house and senate. Markets UP!
Looks like (to dummies not looking at details) Trump might win. Markets UP!
Looks like Biden win, Senate republican. Markets UP!
Makes perfect sense.
Stonks go UP
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TSLA coming soon to your index fund. Will be added late Dec to the S&P500.
They finally made it to the big leagues, up another 10% after hours on the news. The classical tech story - fake it til you make it… to $400B.
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" * Predicted in March 2000 that tech stocks would plunge 83%, then the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index lost an “improbably precise” 83% during a period from 2000 to 2002.
- Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did.
- Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009."
“However, Hussman’s recent returns have been less-than-stellar. His Strategic Growth Fund is down about 50% since December 2010, though it’s risen more than 11% in the past year.”
I guess at least someone’s done worse than me. (Up 20% YTD, 100% since apr 02 low).
Not sure what to do with about 50% in cash now, aggravating watching everything get super expensive with 40+ PEs for minimal growth.
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Buy the latest EV / clean energy / ESG spac plays and make another 30% or more before EOY?
“When the music’s playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
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Why not just OTM weekly calls, make 1000% by EOW?
Or just spend $452 on wayyyyy OTM calls and hold for a year and half like this moron guy:
h_ttps://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/k7anqp/200000_return_4_presplit_tsla_options_purchased/
If I hadn’t trimmed my AAPL position and got rid of all the leaps (purchased ITM) earlier this year, wouldn’t have been 200000% but still would have been a crazy return :(.
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Real estate! I hear it always goes up. 
I’d be up ~$80k (accounting for 10% transaction fees. It’d been +50% in 6 years not counting the transaction fees.) if I bought the first house I looked at :(. But it was the “first one” I physically looked at so I had nothing to compare to.,.
Instead, this one’s up ~$45k on roboappraisals (which is ~$25k after transaction fees), and the foundation is now cracked down the middle. Bad choices…
Sorry to hear that. Foundation could be repaired.
I once almost bought a townhouse in the middle of the building (two shared walls) with a cracked foundation that was obvious, but not disclosed by the sellers. Besides loose floor tile nearby, it was only visible from the outside. I did some research and probably would have bought it if the crack was visible on both sides of the building, that would likely mean that it just went straight under my unit and I could try to get it repaired. But it wasn’t visible on the other side, so it could have veered off or split up towards neighboring units, which would make any repairs impractical. And I would have had to disclose it when selling, since I’m not as dishonest as the owners were.
I’m in one of the most ridiculous markets where no usual RE investment rules (like the 1% rule) ever apply. I wish I was in TX.
Speaking of RE, I think long FL and TX, short NY and CA is looking good.
If the local monopolies for finance (NYC) and tech (Silicon Valley) start to fall, they could easily move altogether under the tax and post-covid forces. Those areas budgets are taking a lot of their old revenue for granted and could easily be very vulnerable. We’ll see how the Biden bailout plan goes.
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More remote work in general could change things in many cities.
Even the slow as ___ company I’m at has announced plans to permanently allow remote and/or mixed work, and moving to a pared down set of “core” required availability hours.
Mixed work impacts cities too (maybe not states as much). Commute only a couple times a week would allow people to live further away without being completely insane. (It’s completely insane to spend 5-15hrs a week in a vehicle commuting. I’m around 5 mi, or ~10 minutes from my place of employment)
IMO, Tesla plant is not technology, it’s a manufacturing plant…
Also it’s hilarious he’s near Austin. Yes, people like infrastructure and community resources. Austin’s the bluest part of the state.
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I wouldn’t too long Florida, it’s gonna be under water soon enough 
That’s where all the Californians are moving 
Although the state looks terrible for redistricting/ continued gerrymandering, it would still be highly surprising if the TGOP retains control of state government even for another 8 years.
They’re gonna gerrymander themselves into another 10, then convince all the Mexicans and former Californians of what’s good for them.
There’s limits to gerrymandering. And after trying too hard there always ends up being a huge reversal from “minority” to supermajority.
But yes, that does seem to be the plan. Educated and higher income whites dump the extremism. But formerly poor Mexican Americans in the bottom income quintile seem to be voting more Trumplican as they move to relatively higher incomes like the 2nd and 3rd quintile. You could see this looking at the changes from 2016-2020 on some of the southern border counties, which are dirt poor and went from heavily blue to less blue.
I don’t think there’s enough data (since they’re underrepresented) for educated and 4th/5th quintile to see if they also change party like the educated whites do.
But Texas had such a change in voter participation during the pandemic that it might be incorrect to draw any of these conclusions.
Getting token Hispanic GOP representatives was a huge focus when I was at the state GOP convention in 2012. They didn’t even pretend the reason wasn’t racist. It was openly 100% “we need Hispanic voters or the Democrats will take over the state. So support this Hispanic candidate!” That was the whole pitch…
It makes sense the voters (of any race) may be more likely to pick a familiar surname when voting, all else being equal. Seems like that could also explain the small gain in minority voters… and some of the small loss of white former-gop voters (not wanting to vote for the Mexicans)
Ouch! Sorry! Not near the lake, I hope. I’ve done a couple of basement wall crack repairs, and not sure how they compare to slab repairs, but they are not outrageously expensive. I’m not talking about the dig/patch/backfill kind of thing, but the poly injections. Had two done, with a lifetime warranty that I never had to use.
It’s a bubble out there in EV stocks, no question. Barron’s on QS.
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Which ones are you shorting??
No way. Too much ESG money getting thrown at no revenue companies for them to ever face the music. They can always just sell more stock and keep going. I saw a small worthless stock I used to short do a $1B stock offering a month ago (they were up to $10B market cap at the time), and they’re up another 75% more now.
My mistake was failing to go long this bubble. As I said to a few shorts, the hedge for your short book is $1000 TSLA calls, not the traditional cheap value stocks. These guys were the flagship for this whole bubble of crazy valuations.
More broadly, I made about equal amounts this quarter going long and short (with much smaller short positions), but it’s way way harder to make money shorting between the Fed throwing tons of money at the markets and the day trading crowd chasing anything for any reason. the volatilities are off the chart and you need to be super careful shorting anything.
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