I was jealous of your possible genius, as I had purchased some sqqq and spxu call LEAPS that have been withering as the stonks kept going up. I’m still in the red, but a lot less so than on Thursday. Congrats on your backtesting and/or foresight. I only went on a gut feeling … which right not feels kinda queasy. 
Looks like the market rebound today wiped out my profit, but I’m much closer to even now. I can’t complain because only a few days ago I was figuring I’d be taking a $2,000+ loss. I sold half my position so far today. Haven’t made a decision yet on when I’m getting rid of the other half. Curious to see what happens.
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I’m out completely. I can’t do a screenshot of realized gains until tomorrow, but I think in the end I’m up ~$300 on my VXX play. Not great, but considering where it was headed just one week ago, I’m happy to be out even. Would have been nice to get out at the peak, but that rarely ever happens. Not sure where things are headed, but I’m not interested in the rollercoaster right now. Don’t have the stomach for it at the moment. Considering a long term position in a few cryptos, but haven’t made up my mind yet.
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There’s the added savings of not buying Tums. 
I’m still underwater on one of my options and the other two are good to 2023. I’ll wait awhile longer … and buy baking soda instead of Tums.
2021 annual total returns
| ticker | type | 2021 Close |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | bitcoin | +58% |
| SPY | large caps | +29% |
| QQQ | tech | +27% |
| IWM | small caps | +15% |
| EFA | foreign (developed) | +11% |
| CPI | inflation | +7% |
| JNK | junk bonds | +4% |
| USD | cash | +0% |
| BND | bonds | -2% |
| GLD | gold | -4% |
| EEM | foreign (emerging) | -4% |
Like the Red Queen says, "here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go anywhere you must run twice as fast as that.” Keeping up with the near 7% inflation for 2021 required taking higher risks in either stocks or crypto. For example, a 50/50 world stock (VT, not shown but +18%) and US bond portfolio would have returned an average of 8%, eking out just over a +1% gain compared to inflation, although no doubt a loss on an after-tax basis. A 50/50 SPY and US bond portfolio would have made 12-13%, a 5% gain over inflation and enough that even after taxes you’d be ahead by a bit.
Another great year for the crypto hodlers, with big gains again. On the individual stock front, 2021 was exceptional in the volatility around Gamestop and AMC associated with social media fueled collective buying sprees that dismayed short sellers and brought riches by way of triple digit returns to the Apes who managed to get in early, sell at a good time, or both. GME was up over 800%.
Coming off the rebound from the covid crash in many of my holdings, at least though the start of the year, I ended up doing quite well. A little leverage works a lot better in an up market than a down one like 2020, that’s for sure.
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A fun recap of what themes worked well this year, from Hindsight Capital.
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Old school advice
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Bump. So hopefully Xerty will tell me if I should sell my stock holdings before the crash happens…
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In some metaverse, Meta stock was up 20% on great earnings. In the real world, FB is -20% and counting.
after the close Wednesday, Meta (FKA Facebook) tanked over 22% on missed earnings and cited that challenges are ahead in the first quarter. Inflation, supply chain disruptions at advertisers and users shifting to products that “monetize at lower rates” are among the key issues the company faces. Revenue in the first quarter will be between $27 billion and $29 billion, while analysts were looking for that number to top $30 billion.
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2022 Q1, total returns. All that glitters…
| ticker | type | 2022 Q1 |
|---|---|---|
| GLD | gold | +7% |
| CPI | inflation (est) | +3% |
| USD | cash | +0% |
| BTC | bitcoin | -4% |
| JNK | junk bonds | -5% |
| SPY | large caps | -5% |
| BND | bonds | -6% |
| PFF | preferreds | -7% |
| EFA | foreign (developed) | -7% |
| IWM | small caps | -8% |
| EEM | foreign (emerging) | -8% |
| QQQ | tech | -9% |
is gold, and everything else turns to lead. For inflation, I estimated for Q1 since we get the last, very likely much higher reading, in 2 more weeks. Jan and Feb were running at around 10-12% annualized rates, so don’t let the single quarter 2-3% CPI number lead you into a false sense of security.
I had a somewhat unlucky first quarter, with some hedges that didn’t work well as well as an unfortunately timed short squeeze, so I was happy to be doing reasonably well and still solidly positive if not topping these charts. Looking forward, I’m wondering why I don’t have more cheap oil and coal company stocks / futures / options…
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Bought some TWTR today on the news of Elon’s 9% stake. It would be hard to be run worse than it is now, and he’s a great stock promoter. Average around $50.
update 4/5: up more this am on the news that Elon will get a board seat, although he agrees not to buy more than 15% as long as he keeps it. They’re acting friendly for now.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522095651/d342257d8k.htm
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(for xerty)
Individual stocks, except for mine 
, seem to be holding their own.
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Elon turned down the board seat on TWTR, presumably because it restricted his ability to own more than 15%. Looks promising for Monday.
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Musk buyout offer $54.20 for all of TWTR. I sold around $52 on the news
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922045641/tm2212748d1_sc13da.htm
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Do you think Musk will be successful? Does the other side have way to block him?
You can read some options here on how the mgmt might oppose him. But they’d look really bad turning down a big buyout premium and he could just start his own and sell his shares or something that would be bad for them.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-12/will-elon-musk-buy-more-twitter
I will probably buy little back at lower prices, since I think it makes a lot of sense for Musk to own TWTR as his public relations platform. Maybe he should get Trump to split the cost 
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I think he’s just doing that to pump the stock with no actual intention to buy Twitter. Timeline goes like this:
- Musk announces he’s buying Twitter to go private quoting a very high purchase price.
- investors rush in to snap up more Twitter share to make a quick $ from the hostile takeover.
- Twitter share price goes up from investor demand
- Musk finds an excuse to not go through with the takeover and sells all his shares faking disappointment/outrage
- Musk uses the profit to launch his own private platform to take on Twitter
He could start his own platform for way less than the $3B he paid for the shares he already has.
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He could start his own platform for way less than the $3B he paid for the shares he already has.
But that would be way less amusing to him than using that $3B to pump-and-dump and start the platform with the premium he earned, while simultaneously taunting the SEC.
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How? The yahoo chart says day’s high was $48.50.