Inflation/stagflation Thread

Let them eat cake. Or maybe Ukraine aid.

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Coffee and bacon are gonna kill me. Too bad pork belly futures have such large lot sizes, lol.

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Where the heck can you buy fresh whole milk?

Back on topic, Iā€™m unsure of what is in margarine, and have no idea why it increased. The egg increase may be due to the bird flu hysteria and consequent slaughters. The only one that surprises me is the coffee. The dollar has been so strong, that I though it might offset transportation and labor increases.

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Hedge fund guy on the Fed here

it is obvious to everyone that inflation is screaming out of control. What isnā€™t obvious is how the Fed is supposed to fix this. In an ideal world, the government would work to alleviate the bottlenecks to new supply. Instead, Biden seems fixated on creating an energy crisis and energy is at the root of much of the current inflation. Meanwhile, the supply chain is a mess because the government handed out stimmys and told people not to work. Housing is in shortage because many communities have restricted development. Fertilizer is in shortage due to a lack of permits for new supply. The problems are all self-inflicted. We need our government to alleviate the bottlenecks, yet they militantly seem fixated on making them worse.

w e act like the Fed can magically solve the inflation problem. Unfortunately, the Fed is not capable of solving an inflationary problem caused by the government restricting supply, though they will try anyway. As the Fed is powerless to fix the supply side, they instead intend to reduce the demand side of the equation

And that last part is going to hurt.

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Back on topic, Iā€™m unsure of what is in margarine, and have no idea why it increased.

I wonder if it is subject to pressure from biofuel price changes, since it is vegetable oil based.
Alternatively - due to the expected famineā€¦ fair chance that crops rotated toward edible grains and away from vegetable-oil products.

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Oh yeah, thatā€™s where itā€™s from. Thank you. Your suggestions certainly make sense, and should point everyone toward the healthy, natural, and (idiot word of the decade, so far) ā€œcuratedā€ choice - butter. If youā€™re worried about antibiotics given to cows, buy your own. Just donā€™t forget the bucket, pole and churn. :wink:

Walmart is feeling the pain too:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/walmarts-1q-profit-disappoints-higher-costs-sales-84773722

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J Powell today

  • FEDā€™S POWELL: IF WE HAVE TO GO PAST NEUTRAL, WE WONā€™T HESITATE
  • FEDā€™S POWELL: WE WILL CONTINUE RAISING RATES UNTIL WE SEE INFLATION COMING DOWN
  • US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS RISE TO SESSION HIGH OF 2.984% AS FEDā€™S POWELL SPEAKS
  • FEDā€™S POWELL: IT WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER TO RAISE RATES EARLIER WITH HINDSIGHT
  • Powell Says Inflation Data Really Changed Beginning in Oct.
  • Powell Says In Hindsight, Probably Should Have Raised Rates Earlier
  • FEDā€™S POWELL: INFLATION IS WAY TOO HIGH
  • Powell Says Fed Clearly Has a Job to Do on Cooling Demand
  • Powell Says Taming Inflation More Difficult Now Due to World Events
  • POWELL: THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PLAUSIBLE PATHS TO SOFTISH LANDING
  • POWELL: THERE COULD BE SOME PAIN INVOLVED
  • Powell Says Sometimes the Landing Is a Little Bumpy
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Powell is a hoot. Why didnā€™t he tell the truth and admit he was afraid to do anything substantive until after he was confirmed as Fed Chairman for a second term?

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Fighting inflation (the Biden way)

Biden is making nice with fellow traveller Maduro. No! Wait! you exclaim. Maduro is a socialist piece of s*** (excrement).

True but no matter. Biden will do business with any dictator, regardless how repugnant, in pursuit of oil . . . . well . . . . except for Putin of course.

The overriding goal is to avoid expanding domestic energy production except from renewable sources. In Biden world, fossil fuels need not apply.

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$4 going on $6

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Just paid $4.99 for premium in central VA.

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Followup with Ackmans Aprā€™22 presentation on inflation. Heā€™s right on the money and itā€™s quite comprehensive - lots of nice charts.

https://nyfed.org/37WApVO

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Target after Walmart, more pain there too on earnings.

CEO: Coming into this year, we anticipated weā€™d see continued tight conditions and elevated costs in freight markets. But the actual conditions and costs have been much more challenging than expected. More specifically, first quarter freight and transportation costs came in hundreds of millions of dollars higher than our already elevated expectations. And for the full year, weā€™re now expecting about $1 billion of incremental freight costs, even compared to our expectations only 3 months ago. Among the reasons for this incremental pressure, record high fuel costs are a meaningful driver as well as the global shipping market, where costs have stayed unusually high and where we sometimes need to rely on the spot market to secure adequate capacity. Compounding these near-term pressures on our gross margin rate, volatility in both consumer demand and delivery times placed additional stress on our supply chain in Q1, one that was already running lean on capacity in light of the growth weā€™ve seen over the last 2 years.

CFO: we donā€™t expect the external environment will be anything close to normal in the back half of the year. In particular, we donā€™t expect to see any meaningful reduction in global supply chain pressures until 2023 at the earliest. So the elevated costs weā€™ve been facing will continue to affect our profitability for the remainder of the year.

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This spells trouble for democrats in the midterms. Ultimately, personal/family finances are more important than other peopleā€™s reproductive rights.

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Retail demand trends, with and without inflation.

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Baby formula - Something Must Be Done! This is something, therefore it must be done.

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?!?!?! Does this really need to be made out to be so damn difficult?

Perhaps try reopening the manufacturing facility the FDA closed due to contamination? Which, in fact (according to the article) is already happening. Sounds like the problem has already been solved.

Cant figure out how this invokation of the DPA is going to do anything anyways, itā€™s not like the manufacturers are being pinched by a lack of ingredients. Or how importing formula from factories not subject to FDA safety standards is considered a solution to the problems caused by shutting down a domestic plant that didnt meet FDA safety standards?

How long before weā€™re hearing about the need for immediate humanitarian aid for some foreign countries, who now have starving babies because we used our military to import their supplies of formula?

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Do you mean abortion (the choose death crowd)? The reason I ask is that ā€œreproductive rightsā€ doesnā€™t seem particularly descriptive, at least for a human.