Inflation/stagflation Thread

We all also know that inflation is influenced by sentiment, and sentiment is influenced by the narrative, so nobody should have a problem with it :slight_smile:.

I don’t think you’ve been paying attention:

That looks exponential.

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Note that the rates being low the past decade and a half was the main contributor to inflation and the raising of the rates is what is needed to combat inflation. The increase in the debt from raising interest rates is a side issue to the cheap money that has led us to where we are, plus the out of control pandemic spending. Combating inflation correctly doesn’t lead to more inflation than the current inflation. It may lead to short term stagflation, followed by just stagnation or a recession without inflation (if they have the stomach to keep raising rates). Followed by what always follows recessions - growth. If we don’t raise rates we’ll just have longer term stagflation. The amount of money will will have to print to pay our debt isn’t anywhere near what we have been and currently are printing with the rates as low as they have been and the spending we’ve done - which is why inflation is as bad as it is.

In other words, I don’t really understand your point and @onenote 's points. Inflation is here now and it is a monetary issue and we know how to combat it. If it isn’t combated, everything changes for the worse, right now, in the present, for everyone. Our debt is not going anywhere regardless of the rates. So you can’t oppose rate increases because it raises the debt faster when raising the debt faster is one of the things that got us here in the first place. And the debt going up is a future problem that could “work itself out” much better than our current problem which is absolutely not working itself out.

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Meed- You’re right. Inflation and the debt are two different things and I probably shouldn’t have brought up the debt on this thread. :slightly_smiling_face:

On a side note… It seems like the stock market being at record highs probably added some to inflation.

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I think the problem there is that the Fed sees its second priority (after controlling inflation) as keeping unemployment low. Unemployment is affected by many things, but mostly its affected by growth or recession. So if you they are trying to lower unemployment, they are essentially trying to stimulate the economy into growth. And that shouldn’t be the job of the Fed. They’ve been doing that by keeping rates low for so long that some modern monetary theorists were actually starting to believe their BS that it could work forever. Clearly it can’t as we’re seeing now, but most people aren’t surprised by this. Had the Fed done a better job staying out of the economy and just focused on anti-inflationary policies, we’d have a more natural economic cycle with likely smaller booms and smaller busts. Instead, we’ve had a much longer boom that is going to turn into a huge bust. Small busts are much more manageable and people can prepare and get used to them. Big busts turn into significant and longer human suffering and terrible reactionary policies

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And?

Fed comments from today

  • BULLARD: FED FORWARD GUIDANCE IS ALREADY AFFECTING ECONOMY

  • BULLARD: CREDIBILITY OF FED’S 2% INFLATION GOAL IS UNDER STRAIN

  • BULLARD: CURRENT U.S. MACRO SITUATION ‘STRAINING’ FED’S CREDIBILITY ON INFLATION

  • BULLARD: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COULD BECOME UNMOORED WITHOUT CREDIBLE FED ACTION

  • BULLARD: FED MUST FOLLOW THROUGH ON FORWARD GUIDANCE WITH RATE HIKES

  • BULLARD: EFFECTS OF FED’S FORWARD GUIDANCE ON RATES ALREADY TAKING HOLD ON ECONOMY, INFLATION

  • BULLARD SAYS `GLOBAL QT’ SHOULD PUT UPWARD PRESSURE ON RATES

  • FED’S BULLARD: IF UNABLE TO BRING INFLATION UNDER CONTROL, COULD BE IN FOR A VERY LONG HAUL

  • BULLARD SAYS 50 BPS HIKE PATH FED LAID OUT IS GOOD FOR NOW

  • BULLARD: FIRMS THAT THINK THEY CAN RAISE PRICES TO WHATEVER THEY WANT WILL BE WORRIED ABOUT LOSING MARKET SHARE PERMANENTLY

  • BULLARD: BOND SALES NOT IMMINENT

  • BULLARD: 3.5% FOR FED FUNDS RATE IS A GOOD MINIMUM FOR HOW HIGH POLICY RATE NEEDS TO GO

  • BULLARD: THEN AS GET TANGIBLE EVIDENCE THAT INFLATION IS RETREATING, COULD REDUCE POLICY RATE IN LATE 2023 OR 2024

  • BULLARD: BETTER TO MOVE AGGRESSIVELY, VERY SOON, AND FRONTLOAD INFLATION-CONTROL POLICY

  • Bullard Repeats He’d Like Fed to Raise Rates to 3.5%

  • BULLARD: NOT A BELIEVER IN WAGE-PRICE SPIRALS

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My information, which because unchecked could easily be in error, is that the Fed rolled off roughly $30 billion in May.

If the Fed really has begun unwinding it should mitigate in favor of higher interest rates.

And your assertion that the government selling more treasury bonds to pay interest will lead to an exponential increase in the debt doesn’t make any difference of have any meaning, because the debt has already been increasing exponentially for many decades. Further:

the exponential debt increase has so far not led to hyperinflation, so there’s no reason to think it will do so in the future.

I believe the Fed is allowing bonds to mature without replacement and typically treasuries mature mid month. I took his comment to more narrowly mean they weren’t going to actively sell their holdings, or at least not soon, but allow the balance sheet to shrink by attrition.

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“How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

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One of our far left leaders has written up a proposal that the government combat inflation buy… “buying the dip” in commodities and then selling for cheap to the American public.

Nothing says higher prices like government price-insensitive buying and of course artificially subsidizing the prices to consumers means there’s no incentive for them to conserve their use.

Better would be to blow the money as an “inflation bailout” and just write everyone checks for $5k or something and you can waste it on whatever you want. Food getting too expensive? Just buy cheap meth and forget to eat, etc.

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According to Ms. Khanna, nobody “… wants to hear politicians bicker about inflation’s cause.” Well, she has to say that to turn around and ask the government to print more money and give away more freebies to people like her constituents. Who cares about economic principles? Just look how well Turkey’s economy is doing thanks to Erdogan ignoring those pesky economic principles!

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No politicians want to hear themselves being blamed as inflation’s cause. That’s what she really meant…

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We all know they’re going to save that one until it’s closer to election time. In the meantime, they could follow the “I am not a crook” president and institute wage and price controls. They would work as well today as they did 50 years ago. After a few months, then drop the $5k disinflation offer. Make the heartless Republicans vote against it, all while crying that it hurts the least fortunate among us.

By all means, complete ignore and deflect the root cause of inflation that’s hurting the least fortunate among us.

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Wells Fargo in macro and inflation. Some charts half way thru compare inflation trends in Mexico and Brazil for example. Moderately interesting.

https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/5a685f1e-8ab5-4052-b8f4-4bfabff0d343

Confirmed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-01/fed-starts-experiment-of-letting-8-9-trillion-portfolio-shrink

Backup link

The Fed is capping monthly runoff at $47.5 billion – $30 billion for Treasuries and $17.5 billion for mortgage-backed securities – until September. Those thresholds will then double to a combined $95 billion.

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Commodity returns from the 1970s. Sometimes history rhymes - Crude is at $120 and nat gas broke over $9 briefly.

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Regarding the Fed’s ability to fight inflation see this article

The new era of inflation has only just begun to wreak havoc

Central bankers everywhere are feeling the pressure to emulate Paul Volcker, the Federal Reserve chair who famously tackled inflation by cranking up interest rates in the early 1980s. “Reducing inflation is of paramount importance,” the usually dovish Fed Governor Lael Brainard said earlier this week. But as U.K. hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, who’s made big profits this year betting against bonds, put it in a letter to clients last month:Everybody knows that the West is bankrupt somewhere around interest rates of 3%, so the fight now is how can 0.5% interest rates slow down inflation which is potentially on its way through 10%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-08/bond-market-woes-are-flashing-danger-ahead-for-stocks

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Genuine retirees, and especially early retirees, should be very careful and plan for a LOT of inflation in their retired years ahead.

Note: genuine retirees do not collect a paycheck, or have income from labor, of any kind.

I suspect this inflation is awakening many retirees to life’s realities.

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