Energy is nominally 8% of CPI, but energy costs are embedded in costs of production, transportation, etc. about 20% of the movements in CPI are attributed to energy costs.
Not enough to say “it makes no sense inflation adjusting the price of energy, when inflation is caused by energy”, but not enough to ignore it either.
President Biden is free to ignore economic principles, but economic principles will not ignore him—or Americans, who are taking the hit from these failed policies every day.
I do not trust the numbers for several reasons. The first is that the CPI data algorithm has been massaged over the years to suit the purpose of the. government.
The second is that the Biden years numbers have not had a chance to reflect the administration’s disastrous energy policies.
Another factor not reflected in the graph is the truly revolutionary nature of the technology improvements in oil extraction developed and implemented during the Trump administration. The Democrats in general both nationwide by essentially banning oil exploration on public land and in the states like New York banning fracking for natural gas and California clamping down on offshore oil extraction have tried to reverse many of those gains.
As long as the government uses the extra to pay down debt, rather than to fund more spending, yes. You lower inflation by reducing demand. Less money in consumer’s pockets yields less demand.
Inflation only perpetuates itself when the ‘solution’ is handouts to help people afford the higher prices.
The debt was created to fund more spending and cash is fungible – the govt will pay down the debt with one hand, then increase it with another. Good luck getting any conservative politician to advocate for raising taxes regardless of stated purpose.
Larry Summers: “It’s 60-40 that we’re going back to something that’s kind of secular stagnation”
In February 2021, Larry Summers was right. The former Treasury secretary warned that President Biden’s stimulus package was far too large and would lead to far too high inflation.
When home prices soar, you have home prices that are up almost 40% in the last 28 months. That’s an enormous rise. And owners’ equivalent rent in the last 2 1/2 years is up just about 8%. That’s all just under 4% annualized.
So what happens to that difference, that 30 percentage point difference? It shows up over the next decade, with about half of it showing up in the next three years. That means we’re going to see inflation run hot for the next three years by about 5% a year.
Rob Arnott: Ben Bernanke about 10 years ago famously said economic expansions don’t die of old age, they’re murdered by the central bank. And there’s a lot of truth to that. We have inflation. It’s created by a massive stimulus spending, by supply chain disruptions closely related to the disruptions, the war in Ukraine.
And which of these does the Fed have any control over? None.
I’m no economist, but the above makes some assumptions:
That home prices will not decrease. If they decrease 10-20% while rents are stable or increasing, the difference between prices and OER will be much less than 30%, and his argument falls apart.
That the percentage increase in home prices should be the same as the percentage increase in OER. I would think that a slower increase in OER implies that renting makes more sense than owning, which may put upward pressure on rents AND downward pressure on home prices.
Rising mortgage rates put pressure on housing prices. The risk of recession puts pressure on housing prices and rents. So as with almost everything else, take it with a bucket of salt.
Ah, now the oil report comes out and it wasn’t those Evil Oil companies not producing after all. So much for that last Bidenflation excuse.
U.S. CRUDE PRODUCTION ROSE TO 12.1 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN LATEST WEEK, HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 2020 - EIA
Meanwhile, on the international begging front,
WH Energy Adviser Hochstein Says We’re in Talks With OPEC Nations That Have Capacity
US WELCOMED MAJOR CHANGE IN ATTITUDE FROM OPEC : HOCHSTEIN
HOCHSTEIN: CAN REASSESS MORE SPR RELEASES AFTER OCTOBER
They would dump more of the Strategic Reserve before midterms if they could, but there are physical limits to how fast they can get the oil out and they’re already maxed out dumping our reserves full throttle.
and which OPEC countries have spare capacity again? Apparently not that many, Saudi saying they don’t have much available.
Oil prices moved up on the delayed EIA report and seem to be heading further that way unless the Fed manages to get us a serious recession instead of just a small one.
Those producers are more than willing to wait patiently, knowing that after things with Russia settle down and oil prices begin to naturally drop, the US will start propping up the price by beginning to refill our reserves.
Possibly. But in this case it’s a state income tax refund. Being called “inflation assistance” or “stimulus” or “gasoline for the fire” doesn’t change the truth of what it is. No money is being created.
But giving out money from the state government, even if it’s not printing money the way the Feds do, is still pulling forward future demand to today when it will increase inflation. If they are borrowing more to fund this extra refund, they’re taking investment capital from rich municipal bond investors and giving it to people who will blow it right away.