Inflation/stagflation Thread

Last I checked they’re not borrowing anything (borrowing requires voter approval IIRC) – CA had a huge surplus of tax revenue last year, and they’re giving some of it back. It also seems like distribution will take weeks or months, which should soften any demand increase.

Not borrowing anything? Could that surplus have been put toward the huge unfunded liability of CalPERS?

2 Likes

Sure, but if they just didn’t give it back, that would be less inflationary. They still have relatively large state level debt, if not deficits in bull market years.

2 Likes

How long are you going to be paying for this war?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542572947315073027

2 Likes

The chart shows state debt to GDP of 4.07%, ranked 18 of 50. That’s not relatively large.

CA has also established a rainy day fund to avoid future deficits. Some of the surplus was also added to that fund.

Is CalPERS supposed to be funded or even backed by the taxpayers or the general fund? I thought it was funded by the local governments and their employees. I suppose the employees of the state government are funded by the state taxes, but they’re not the only participants, they’re probably a minority.

Can we get an update pls? This was 2021 last 4th of July.

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1410709115333234691

1 Like

I guess there is no twitter update if the economic plan is not working. LOL.

1 Like

Who comes up with that stuff? Half those prices listed are double what I’d expect to pay walking into the grocery store today.

That’s cheap for a pound of cheese but everything else seems a lot higher than what I’ve been paying recently. Maybe these prices are “regular” prices not assuming any sales.

1 Like

https://abc7.com/california-gas-tax-increase-july-1-2022-gasoline-prices-cost-of-in-la/12009418/

The state’s sales tax on gasoline is the second-highest in the nation now at around 54 cents per gallon.

Republicans had tried in vain to convince Democrats to suspend the sales tax for one year, arguing it would benefit taxpayers faster than a rebate check.

“The governor could have suspended the gas tax or stopped the gas tax increase that will happen on Friday, July 1. He did not,” Republican Assemblymember Vince Fong, vice chair of the Assembly Budget Committee, said earlier this week. “In the face of rising inflation, Californians will see more costs in their everyday lives despite all the Governor’s rhetoric.”

1 Like

The American Farm Bureau Federation is the Voice of Agriculture®. We are farm and ranch families working together to build a sustainable future of safe and abundant food, fiber and renewable fuel for our nation and the world.

1 Like

supply chains and port labor contract negotiations

https://www.wsj.com/articles/port-labor-talks-enter-new-high-stakes-phase-with-contract-expiring-11656667802

No one expected an agreement before the expiration of the contract. Shipping industry officials have said the union’s leverage is greater after the contract expires and when bringing goods into the country becomes more urgent later in the year.

Some importers are already rerouting cargoes to East Coast ports as a hedge against West Coast disruptions. “I think everybody is anticipating some kind of slowdown and that’s why we are seeing such a shift of cargo from the West Coast to the East Coast,” said Craig Akers, director of operations at the Toy Shippers Association.

Could be worse - they’re still working after their contract expired instead of going on strike and screwing everything up even worse. But they’re gonna get a big concession for that - how big remains to be seen, and just remember “port efficiency” is not in their interest.

2 Likes

Calling out all the Biden blame antics, especially for the energy sector.

2 Likes

The second half of this macro presentation had good inflation stuff on US gas prices, refining, food prices, etc, and how it’s all that much worse for the EU.

1 Like

The ground beef, pork chops, and chicken breast seem pretty close to non-sale prices around my neck of the woods. All red and white meat are definitely more expensive by over 10% from last year.

Of course they are. If the point is to compare prices at any given point to any other given point, you wouldn’t factor in sales. But as for the red and white meat, sale prices, while lower than those prices listed, are also up at least 10% from last year. And, while I don’t actually have data to back up this claim, it seems like they go on sale less often, or are more likely to be out of stock when they do go on sale.

1 Like

There is chicken being sold for $4.50/lb, but right next to it there’s also [the same type of] chicken for $2.50-$3.00/lb. There is ice cream being sold for $5.16, but there’s also the same package size for as low as $1.97. There are rolls being sold for $1.93, right next to rolls being sold for $.98. Some ground beef is sold for over $5.50/lb, right next to other packages costing $3.50-4.50/lb (not including the 10lb logs for $3.00/lb). Cookies and chips, $4.31 and $4.71, unless you grab the bags next to them for $2.18 and $1.48.

I understand they can’t just go with the cheapest option they can find each year, there needs to be some degree of consistency year to year. But a lot of those items are commodities. If this is what people expect to spend for such things, they lose a lot of my sympathy when they claim they can’t afford their groceries - it isn’t an inflation problem…

(And how many people are they feeding, to need 7 pounds of meat but only one 16oz bag of chips? :yum:)

I’m not sure how your grocery stores work but my grocery stores always have all the common meats on sale every week. Some weeks are better than others but they’re always on sale in some way essentially in perpetuity. I can’t remember the last time I actually paid the full per pound price for beef or chicken.

You mean like once a week or every day? I don’t remember the exact definition, but I thought claiming something as “on sale” is supposed to mean that it is discounted from the price that was most common during some preceding period. A perpetual “sale” is misleading and should be illegal.

So take the store brand of boneless skinless chicken breast as an example. The “regular price” is $4.99 a pound. This week it’s on sale for $2.99 a pound. Last week it was on sale for $3.29 a pound. The week before $3.49. A really good sale would be $1.99 a pound. I’ve never actually seen it be sold for $4.99 a pound however. Ground beef would be very similar however I’m not as sure of the prices because I try to avoid eating it so buy it much less often.

1 Like