Inflation/stagflation Thread

But it seems like there could be a pretty fine line to walk - part of this inflation is due to surging wages, and the only way to address that is for people to be laid off. Which would almost immediately flip the inflationary pressure into deflationary pressure.

Yes, CNN, racial diversity is such a very very key aspect of this subject, so much so as it just absolutely must be the headline message being conveyed. And this is a business news report, not an opinion column or even a society piece :rage:.

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It would be an improvement if I could get down to twice a week.

My wife makes great dinners, but doesn’t pack anything for me in the morning. I need to get into a routine to do it myself. But I also need to get into a routine of going to the gym. Easier said than done.

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The chart explains that there is a recession and who caused it

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Good catch. I was waiting for someone to jump on that. :grinning:

Truth is some stagflation definitions mention employment, others do not. I found it both ways. From bitter experience I can report to you that stagflation is a really bad thing. You don’t want to be anywhere near the stagflation ballpark, and plainly not inside. Let’s hope matters turn and go in a different direction.

Inflation is most certainly a component of stagflation. On that: no arguments. So this current, very recent, Democrat additional spending fiasco of $800 billion is not at all reassuring. They are pouring gasoline on the inflationary fire.

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This is a simplistic view of things. The government printed and distributed trillions during the pandemic. That was bound to produce inflation. You can’t keep the pace of recovery after those wild swings, plus inflation eventually leads to consumers cutting back on anything that isn’t “a need”.

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Me thinks this is a desperate effort to keep control of Congress during the midterms. And you don’t want to go down in history as the one senator whose vote cost the party control of the House.

Biden and the Democrats have been in control of the White House and the Congress for 18 months now. Much of the pandemic spending and also non-pandemic spending that triggered the inflation was passed overwhelmingly with Democrat votes. So Biden has to take responsibility.

As an aside, if it were President Trump under which the recession occurred you can be sure the Democrats and their media allies would blame it all on him. Biden famously claimed in a debate that President Trump was personally responsible for all the deaths with Covid during his administration.

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Possibly, but it would be less of a stretch if Joseph Robinette Biden and his sycophants, including most media, had not pounded the bell on “his” recovery. Okay, he want’s to claim credit for that? Fine, you can hide under the desk regarding inflation.

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I’m not into politics but into looking at things objectively. If I wanted to follow (either) party lines I’d be spending my time at CNN, Fox, or MSNBC.

This article I just posted on the bonds thread is relevant here

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The latest incarnation of Build Back Bigger, renamed and somewhat pared down under the rebranded Inflation Reduction Act (via climate change and Obamacare subsidies) is expected to do nothing of the sort according to a Wharton financial analysis.

  • The Act would very slightly increase inflation until 2024 and decrease inflation thereafter. These point estimates are statistically indistinguishable from zero, thereby indicating low confidence that the legislation will have any impact on inflation.
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I’m going to ask Manchin for my money back.

Bloomberg unveils the truth about lower gasoline prices

This is one heckuva way to mitigate inflation!

It was the summer of 2020. COVID-19 was ravaging America. People were perishing by the thousands. There was no vaccine. There were no effective therapeutics. Businesses were closed. Anxious Americans were remaining at home by the millions, when and wherever possible.

Bloomberg has just revealed Americans are driving less TODAY, this summer, than was the case two summers back:

A bearish government report dragged prices lower as crude stockpiles rose by more than 4 million barrels, while the four-week seasonal average for gasoline demand fell below the 2020 level.

Bottom line as a result of out-of-control inflation, Americans are driving less today than they were at the height of the pandemic. People are really hurting!

https://news.yahoo.com/oil-declines-opec-decision-production-005401603.html

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All eyes are on Sinema now but she’s playing it cagey. As the political pundits are saying the Democrats will give her literally anything she wants. Sinema statues on every corner. National bisexual woman holiday. Let’s hope she uses her super powers for good.

By the way, have you noticed that nobody can figure out how to spell either her first or last name. Also she is in office because that moron Ducey kept appointing the unelectable Martha McSally to the Senate in Arizona. McSally was responsible for flipping both the Arizona Senate seats to Democrat.

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The Arizona state GOP is garbage. They can’t figure out how to get a electable republican on the statewide ballot in a state where an electable republican would have a really good chance at winning in our current environment.

I’ve had a PO Box for a few years now (no commentary about the merits of other private PMBs instead of the Post office :wink: ). My box renewal jumped from $76 last August to $182 this August. Needless to say, I no longer have a PO box.

And I’ve noticed that Walmart brand ice cream, that has been $1.97 forever, is now $2.27. Yes, I consider a lot of Walmart brand items to be a good indication of actual inflation costs, because they try really hard to keep those products dirt cheap. I dont trust other brands, who tend to raise prices simply because all the headlines have caused consumers to expect an increase so there’s little objection.

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Hedge fund commentary

https://s3.amazonaws.com/bireme/2Q22%20-%20FV.html

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We do think that headline inflation will probably moderate. Commodity prices are well off their highs, supply chain problems should ease, and demand for goods is dropping after the pandemic-driven surge. However, inflation “moderating” from a headline ~8% should be cold comfort. Furthermore, evidence indicates that what was once an inflationary surge driven by a few items – primarily food, energy and durable goods – has morphed into a far broader and stickier inflationary pressure.

There are various ways to attempt to more reliably ascertain the underlying trend of inflation than the headline rate… All of these measures have their strengths and weaknesses, but it is not critical to differentiate between them today: they uniformly paint a dreadful picture.


Underlying inflation is running somewhere from 5-10%, price increases pervade the economy, and there’s no sign of an imminent decline. This is a radical departure from the post-financial crisis era of low and stable inflation.

Not only does the Fed project this elevated and pervasive inflation will rapidly moderate, they also project this will happen in an excellent economic environment. They expect trough real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2022 and 2023 – a very healthy growth rate not at all consistent with a dramatic slowdown in economic activity…

Frankly, these projections seem comically optimistic to us.

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Yikes! What size box?

The smallest one.

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