The large increase in the employment numbers touted by the Democrats this week is due to fewer people working but more people working multiple jobs
The second factoid is the drop in gasoline prices is due to a drop in gas usage and not from the Biden administration selling oil from the US oil reserves to the Chinese
Over the past four weeks, consumers bought about 8% less gasoline compared to the same period last year, when prices were lower than $3 a gallon, according to data released last week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Using less gas caused supplies to grow, and that, combined with fears of an impending recession and the European Unionās easing of its sanctions against Russiaās oil industry, have caused oil and gas prices to plummet.
The most obvious issue concerns āseasonal adjustments.ā
However, in reality these seasonal adjustments are just gimmick the BLS uses to fake the numbersā¦ particularly at a time when the BLS is under tremendous political pressure to make the economy look better than it really is.
Times like today.
As Bill King notes, the seasonable adjustments for July 2021, were NEGATIVE 65,000. And yet, for some reason, the seasonable adjustments for July 2022, were POSITIVE 287,000.
Posting here because there isnāt a specific recession / employment / real estate market thread that is as active as this thread.
Iāve noticed an increase in cold calls from mortgage brokers that I reached out to for quotes over the past several years. What that tells me is that these brokerages who had plenty of work for all the brokers on staff now no longer have that volume and they are instructing their brokers, instead of sitting around twiddling their thumbs, to cold call everyone whose phone number they got in the past few years hoping for a nibble. Soon those folks will be laid off.
CPI less bad than feared, flat for July, Fed futures hikes expected to be lower.
US Jul Consumer Prices Unchanged; Consensus 0.2%
US Jul CPI Ex-Food & Energy 0.3%; Consensus 0.5%
US Jul Consumer Prices Increase 8.5% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 5.9% Over Year
FED SEEN RAISING INTEREST RATES BY 50 BPS IN SEPT, BASED ON FED FUNDS FUTURES PRICING, VERSUS 75 BPS HIKE SEEN BEFORE CPI REPORT
More Fed comments
FEDāS EVANS: TODAYāS INFLATION REPORT IS FIRST POSITIVE REPORT
EVANS: I EXPECT WILL INCREASE RATES THIS YEAR, NEXT YEAREVANS: OPTIMISTIC FORECASTING THAT NEXT YEAR CORE PCE INFLATION WILL BE CLOSER TO 2.5%
EVANS: IāM NOT LOOKING FOR ECONOMY TO TURN DOWN IN A SIGNIFICANT FASHION ANY TIME SOON
EVANS: NOT LOOKING FOR A RECESSION
EVANS: SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR TO BE `QUITE POSITIVEā
EVANS: THE ECONOMY IS ALMOST SURELY A LITTLE MORE FRAGILE, BUT WOULD TAKE SOMETHING ADVERSE TO TRIGGER RECESSION
EVANS: I EXPECT ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXT YEAR TO BE 1.5% -2%
EVANS: WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES FOR LONGER THAN IāD LIKE
FEDāS EVANS: ITāS QUITE POSSIBLE WE WILL BE ABLE TO TIGHTEN MONETARY POLICY ENOUGH TO BRING INFLATION DOWN AND UNEMPLOYMENT WILL ONLY RISE TOWARD 4.25%
But seriously, the annual number for CPI is dumb, just look at the last month. The July was 0% vs May 1% and June 1.3%. Thatās way better.
However, the recent commodity drop contributed a large part to that lower CPI for July. I doubt the same amount of energy deflation will occur next month (is oil going to fall another $20/barrel?) as well and continue like that for all future months, so my guess is core inflation returns somewhat higher for Aug.
Excluding food and energy prices, ācoreā CPI rose just 0.3% in July, matching the slowest pace of monthly core inflation seen in 2022. Core goods inflation eased to 0.2% over the month. Modest deflation was seen in apparel and education and communication goods prices, a welcome development for back-to-school shoppers hitting the stores before the fall. Used car and truck prices also fell in July, declining 0.4%. However, not all goods categories showed clear signs of easing inflation. Prices for household furnishings rose 0.6%, a tenth higher than the 0.5% registered in June, while prices for new vehicles matched Juneās 0.6% growth.
Our regional theme park has began selling 2023 season passes and related add-ons. The prices are rather shocking - while not the same early bird sale prices as last year, the pricing isnt materially different than what theyāve been selling the passes, etc for all this summer. And they actually expanded the timeframe the add-ons are valid for, making them more costly to fulfill.
Clearly I overestimate the typical usage of an all-season dining plan (which allows you to eat for free two times per day for as many days as you want to go to the park). Plus I neglected to consider the fact they probably know their season pass base as a whole cant afford yet another big price increase right now.
Maybe the strategy is to give everyone a good deal, with the expectation that no one will be able to afford the gas needed to get to the park to take advantage of that dealā¦ After all, this is for 2023, the election will be over, and instead weāll be refilling the SPR.
On August 16, the price of September futures at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) of the Netherlands, which is considered the most liquid virtual sales center in Europe, was $2,631.7, 13,3 times higher than the previous calculation price.
According to the article this is the price per 1000 mĀ³ of gas I assume at atmospheric pressure.
@shinobi How does this compare to the price of oil?
Edit. I looked it up and it seems that 1000 mĀ³ of natural gas is equivalent to six barrels of oil. So $2632 is equivalent to about $440 for a barrel of oil??
