Inflation/stagflation Thread

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https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-gains-saudis-flag-opec-000606293.html

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The Bidenistas are hell-bent on approving the Iran nuclear deal. That may put a lot more oil on the market until full-scale war breaks out.

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I would like to make a comment on this, but the veins would pop out of my temples.

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this truly is outrageous. I read the official bio on the Department of Energy nomination and theyā€™re right, nada about the Saudis,

David Crane, the nominee to be the Energy Departmentā€™s undersecretary for infrastructure, sits on the board of the state-owned Saudi Electricity Company, a fact curiously absent from the biography circulated by the administration when it announced Craneā€™s nomination on August 3.

hereā€™s the official page

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Granholm, the pride of Vancouver, British Columbia whence she hails, is among the very worst, most liberal American politicians. She is even responsible for cancellation of the ā€œNaked Mileā€ in Ann Arbor.

The only good thing I can relate regarding Granholm is that she thankfully is ineligible ever to become POTUS . . . . . praise God!!

If only Canada would take her back. :cry:

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This is one reason that the core inflation is so high

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Biden announces Inflation Expansion Act as poorer Americans are forced to pay debts of the rich in naked vote buying scheme costing hundreds of billions

Even if you make as much as $125,000/year, poor slobs who never even went to college will be paying for your elite education

This is sheer, unvarnished insanity. I paid off every dime of my college loans. It never would have occurred to me to expect others to pay MY debt, least of all those Americans who are not so well off and are already struggling to make ends meet amidst this horrible Biden inflation!!

ETA

Biden is feathering the nests of rich college educated elites while millions of poorer, less well off, merely average Americans struggle to make ends meet:

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I donā€™t exactly support this action, but letā€™s be honest ā€“ ā€œpoor slobsā€ and those who ā€œstruggle to make ends meetā€ most likely do not pay federal income taxes.

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I could have sworn that there were arguers on this board stating rent wasnā€™t high ā€¦ or that it was transitory. :slightly_smiling_face:

Wow, thatā€™s a relief! When I hear about the multitudes that are living paycheck to paycheck, I thought it was millions.

You think $9 nat gas is bad, check out the rest of the developed world. 5-10x higher and winter isnā€™t even here yet.

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Fed watching

  • FEDā€™S HARKER: WE NEED TO GET TO RESTRICTIVE STANCE, WHICH WEā€™LL BE BY YEAR END
  • FEDā€™S HARKER: Iā€™D LIKE TO SEE US GET TO ABOVE 3.4% AND THEN PERHAPS SIT FOR A WHILE
  • FEDā€™S HARKER: BUT IF DATA KEEPS INDICATING WE NEED TO RAISE MORE WE SHOULD DO THAT
  • FEDā€™S HARKER: I WANT TO SEE NEXT INFLATION READING BEFORE DECIDING ON SEPTEMBER
  • HARKER: 50 WOULD STILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL MOVE
  • HARKER: STARTED TO HEAR VERY EARLY LAST FALL THAT INFLATION WAS NOT TRANSITORY
  • HARKER: Iā€™M NOT IN THE CAMP OF TAKING RATES WAY UP AND THEN RIGHT BACK DOWN
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No one ever predicted this after the government made it impossible to evict renters that werenā€™t paying landlords for a year and half, regardless of if they had the ability to pay or not. :roll_eyes:

They may not pay federal income taxes, but they are more disproportionately affected by inflation, and since weā€™ll have to print money to forgive student loan debt, they will be paying for it.

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More Fed commentary

  • BULLARD: 3.75 -4% IS MY TARGET FOR THIS YEAR ā€“ CNBC INTERVIEW
  • FEDā€™S BULLARD: I LIKE FRONTLOADING
  • BULLARD: RATES ARENā€™T HIGH ENOUGH NOW
  • BULLARD: NEED TO GET POLICY RATE TO WHERE IT PUSHES DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION
  • BULLARD: AFTER RATES GET ABOVE 3.75%-4%, NOT QUITE SURE WHATā€™S NEXT
  • FEDā€™S BULLARD: MY BASELINE IS THAT INFLATION WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT MANY EXPECT
  • FEDā€™S BULLARD: INFLATION WILL BE HIGHER FOR LONGERFEDā€™S BULLARD: THT RISK IS UNDERPRICED IN THE MARKET
  • BULLARD: ASKED ABOUT STOCK MARKET, SAYS HE TRIES TO STAY AWAY FROM EQUITY PRICING
  • BULLARD: I DONā€™T WANT TO TAKE TOO MUCH SIGNAL FROM STOCK MARKET
  • BULLARD: BOND MARKETS GIVE A LITTLE BETTER PRICING OF THE RISK WE WILL HAVE TO DO MORE
  • BULLARD: RECESSIONS NOT THAT PREDICTABLE
  • BULLARD: AFTER PANDEMIC WE SET OUT A PATH ON ASSET-BUYING THAT WAS ā€˜OVERBOARDā€™
  • U.S. TREASURY 2/10 YIELD CURVE EXTENDS INVERSION TO -34.3 BPS AFTER FEDā€™S BULLARD COMMENTS
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This is, in no way, a complaint, but where are you getting these seemingly IDIOTIC qoutes. Just as an example ā€¦

STARTED TO HEAR VERY EARLY LAST FALL THAT INFLATION WAS NOT TRANSITORY

And WTH did you do?

HARKER: Iā€™M NOT IN THE CAMP OF TAKING RATES WAY UP AND THEN RIGHT BACK DOWN

And what camp are you in, JA? Seriously, Iā€™m not for killing [insert VC here]. What the heck does that say?

Since my last comment, I guess I have to respond to this one ā€¦

Bully for you. How do you intend to achieve it?

I like doggy-style

Why?

Duh! Paging Dr. Howard, Paging Dr. Fine, Paging Dr. Howard ā€¦ doofus.

First, the rates arenā€™t anywhere near 3.75. Thatā€™s like me saying ā€œonce I reach 110, Iā€™m not sure what soup Iā€™ll eat.ā€ ā€¦ idiots.

Yikes! What do I do with this inane piece of sophistry ā€¦ May a herd of camelā€™s become overly interested in your eldest sonā€™s cummberbund. Sorry, but that is how nonsensical these idiots seem to be. If you canā€™t speak with confidence, bite your fat tongue, and STHU.

ETA: With all due deference to Johnny/Carnac.

The PCE (personal consumption expenditure) index still up year to year but less than in June. Iā€™ve heard pundits say that this is the one that the Fed pays attention to. Again itā€™s a story of oil prices dropping. I wonder if the market is pricing in an Iran deal. The Saudis are saying they will cut production in case of a deal. The stock market is dropping sharply today.

Inflation eased last month as energy prices tumbled, raising hopes that the surging costs of everything from gasoline to food may have peaked.

According to a Commerce Department report Friday that is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, consumer prices rose 6.3% in July from a year earlier after posting an annual increase of 6.8% in June, the biggest jump since 1982. Energy prices made the difference in July: They dropped last month after surging in June.

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The latest inflation numbers show that the falling oil price is a main driver. Itā€™s hard for me to understand how the oil price is not increasing with the huge increase in energy prices in Europe. Hereā€™s one opinion on the effect of the Iran deal. The Bidenistas are desperate to have it signed.

Friday, August 26th, 2022

Oil prices have remained in limbo this week, with ICE Brent trending around $100 per barrel, as the market zoomed in on the prospects of an Iranian deal. As the Biden administration relayed its response to the European Union, acting as a broker between the two sides that refuse to negotiate directly, rumours seem to indicate that the proposed terms fall short of what Tehran expected, effectively creating a ā€œtake it or leave itā€ dilemma for the Iranian leadership. Unless there is any sudden breakthrough on Iran, it will be the Fedā€™s Jackson Hole symposium driving oil prices.

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Sounds like weā€™ve got it good.

UK inflation to top 18% in early 2023, Citi warns

LONDON (Reuters) -British consumer price inflation is set to peak at 18.6% in January, more than nine times the Bank of Englandā€™s target, an economist at U.S. bank Citi said on Monday, raising his forecast once again in light of the latest jump in energy prices.

Inflation in Germany could hit a 70-year high of 10% amid Russiaā€™s natural-gas squeeze, German central bank chief says

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