CPI for Nov is tomorrow am, consensus is a 7.3% annual (backwards looking) rate
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By the Fed uber alles logic of the stock market lower cpi means higher prices. Thereās still a little matter of a $31 trillion, and growing, national debt and a $9 trillion fed balance sheet. But it would be rude to point this out.
Note: Article is behind a paywall but the headline tells the story
https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-deficit-widened-to-a-record-249-billion-last-month-11670871622
The monthly federal deficit was a record-setting $249 billion in November, $57 billion wider than the same month last year, as Republican control of the House puts the governmentās finances back in the political spotlight.
I find the last clause very telling. 
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CPI is out, lower than expected
- US CPI MOM ACTUAL 0.1% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.4%)
- US CPI YOY ACTUAL 7.1% (FORECAST 7.3%, PREVIOUS 7.7%)
- US CORE CPI MOM ACTUAL 0.2% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.3%)
- US CORE CPI YOY ACTUAL 6.0% (FORECAST 6.1%, PREVIOUS 6.3%)
- US Nov CPI Energy Prices -1.6%; Food Prices 0.5%
and Fed watching
- FUTURES IMPLY TRADERS SEE GROWING CHANCE OF 25 BP FED HIKE IN FEBRUARY, AFTER 50 BP HIKE IN DECEMBER, FOLLOWING TAMER-THAN-EXPECTED NOV CPI
- FED SWAPS DOWNGRADE PEAK POLICY RATE TO 4.88% IN MAY 2023
- SWAPS PRICE 100BP ADDITIONAL HIKES BY MARCH FED VS 110BP PRIOR
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Good news all around! Why are stocks down??? 
Hereās the nice breakdown of the components of inflation for recent months, and in particular Novā22. Notice the negative energy contribution (largest), but also negative for a change from vehicles and travel as well. Housing is still the largest rising contributor, which is heavily lagged (by 1-2 years), so even with high mortgage rates turning things downward, we wonāt see that in the CPI for a while.
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The food number just doesnāt translate to the real world for the average family. That chart shows food never really above 8% or 9%. In reality, what weāre experiencing at the supermarket is more like 18%-35%, with some things costing 50% more when they arenāt on sale. A bag of Fritos is $4.99 most of the time now. The regular price pre-pandemic was $3.99, BUT it was almost never that price. Because of the way that FTC regulations work regarding sales, stores have to charge full price a certain number of days every 30 or 90 days (I forget the exact regulation). 3 years ago, you would see a bag of Fritos at $3.29 twice as often as youād see it at $3.99. The real world price increase of a bag of Fritos (and there are tons of other items in the supermarket that mirror this) is really up 50% from the pre-pandemic price. I donāt see how that translates into a 7% increase in food prices in the CPI.
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agreed. Have started shopping more at aldiās type stores now
Following your Fritoās lead-in, my favorite winter entreeās are chicken pot pie and Frito-pie (yeah, Iām from the South). I gave up on Fritoās a couple of years ago as they got way too proud of their product. Roughly 18 monthās ago, I could get Aldiās corn chip knock-offs for 69Ā¢, all day, every day. It crept up over the months, and now it is priced at 1.39. My napkin math says thatās 100 inflation over 18 months.
I expect the fed to raise at least 50 bp in December, but hope for 75. Next year, they will fall like deflated baloons and interest rates will drop until at least next fall. Iām hoping that mid-January still has decent longer term rates, and thatās when funds will be available for 10 year bonds. My expectations are to sell them Sept/Oct for acceptable cap gains returns.
FYI, Lidl has Glogg wine until they sell out. Itās not as good as home made, but for 6 bucks a bottle, what do you want.
The Fed hiked rates by 50 bps this afternoon.
The Fedās median projections showed that it will hike rates as high as 5.1% in 2023. The forecast is higher than the 4.6% projected by the Fed in September.
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Credit where credit is due. Oil sure came down a lot more than I would have thought, and here weāre buying back in the low $70s.
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCES FIRST REPURCHASE OF CRUDE OIL FOR STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE SINCE RECORD 180 MLN BBL RELEASE
U.S. WILL PURCHASE 3 MLN BBLS OF OIL FOR SPR FOR DELIVERY IN FEBRUARY - SENIOR ENERGY DEPT OFFICIAL
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Same. Hereās what oilprice.com says. Bottom line is that no one really knows why the drop
The experts say that oil prices are caught in the backwash from top-down macro trades with both positive and negative news on the economic front triggering selloffs.
According to StanChart, negative U.S. economic data points are triggering an oil price selloff due to recessionary fears; however, positive data points are, ironically, having a similar effect due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
Further, sentiment has been buoyed by Chinaās reopening, but as timescales dragged many traders have preferred to bet more in the metals markets instead. At the same time, the new shorts are relatively weak and will soon be covered, helping to shore up oil prices.
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Thanks, Biden?!
I mean if you gonna blame all problems on the president you must also give him credit for things that seem to go right 
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There has been a massive surge in credit card usage by US households, a troubling sign that could suggest that in lieu of disposable income, many consumers are forced to max out credit cards to survive the inflation storm.
The household debt (blue curve) and savings rate (black curve) are at a 20 year high/low.
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People not having money should be deflationary. So itās āgood newsā for this thread, right? 
People not SPENDING money should be deflationary. Sadly, people without money are still spending it. Maybe theyāre expecting 2024 to bring about a āspenderās bailoutā for people who canāt pay their credit card bills. 
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Good point.
According to the article, people still have money for a few more months:
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Yes, Biden has done a great job of screwing up the world economy and reducing the demand for oil. 
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The price is reflective not of the current demand, but rather of the expectation of future demand. 
Also you give him too much credit ā US economy != world economy.
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